Following weeks of fevered speculation, Sir Graham Brady has announced that there will be a confidence vote on Boris Johnson’s leadership.

       The ballot will be held this evening after Sir Graham confirmed that the threshold of 54 letters submitted to the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, which he chairs, had been met.

       If the prime minister loses the vote then a leadership contest will be triggered and the Conservative Party will choose a successor.

       The list of runners and riders to replace Mr Johnson has fluctuated over the past few months, with MPs like Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, seeing his fortunes decline amid the fallout from revelations about his family’s tax status and wealth.

       Despite his recent woes, punters have not fully turned against Mr Sunak, who remains in the top five MPs most likely to take over the reins from Mr Johnson.

       Recommended PM to face no-confidence vote today, Sir Graham Brady announces - live The PM will win his confidence vote – but even so, it’s over for him How does a no-confidence vote work and should the PM be worried?

       According to Betfair Exchange, Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, is now the favourite to replace the PM on 9/2. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary long touted as a future leader, is in second place on odds of 7/1.

       Tom Tugenhadt, the MP for Tonbridge and Malling and chair of the foreign affairs committee whose stock has steadily risen in recent weeks, is in third place on 8/1.

       He shares third place with Penny Mordaunt, the MP for Portsmouth North and international trade minister.

       Mr Sunak, the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire) is in fourth on 9/1, one place ahead of Ben Wallace, the defence secretary who has been widely praised for his performance during Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, who is on 12/1.

       Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary and MP for Stratford-on-Avon, is second from bottom on BetFair’s list on 17/1. Sajid Javid, the health secretary, and Bromsgrove MP is on 19/1.

       Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Boris Johnson will face a Vote of Confidence from his Conservative MPs today after the motion was triggered this morning.

       “The prime minister, who was booed during a service for the Queen’s platinum jubilee on the weekend, is 2/5 to win the vote of no confidence, like his predecessor Theresa May did in 2018, however, he is odds-on at 5/6 on Betfair Exchange to leave No.10 this year.

       “Jeremy Hunt is the 9/2 favourite to replace Johnson as Conservative leader with Liz Truss 7/1 and Tom Tugendhat 8/1.”

       MrJohnson’s leadership woes were triggered by the “Partygate” scandal.

       Veteran Whitehall civil servant Sue Gray finally delivered her report into the string of lockdown-breaking social events that occurred behind the scenes in Westminster in May, June, November and December 2020 and April 2021, while the rest of the country was pulling together, making personal sacrifices and observing strict rules to fend off Covid-19.

       “There were failures of leadership and judgement by different parts of No 10 and the Cabinet Office at different times,” she wrote.

       “Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place. Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.”

       Her inquiry had been delayed by the Metropolitan Police launching an investigation of its own based on the evidence she had collected, which ultimately led to 83 individuals receiving 126 fixed-penalty notices, the PM, his wife Carrie Johnson and chancellor Rishi Sunak among their number and forced to fork over ￡50 each.

       Mr Johnson has repeatedly attempted to ride out the storm of indignation, protesting his innocence with credulity-straining excuses and brazenly rejecting calls to step aside despite being found to have broken his own laws in office.

       But he is not out of the woods yet. He must still appear before the Commons Privileges Committee to answer questions about whether he knowingly misled Parliament over Partygate, having regularly denied holding any prior knowledge about what went on.

       Many of his own MPs, meanwhile, remain incensed and are unconvinced by his message that the country must move on and allow him to focus on supporting Ukraine and addressing the cost of living crisis.

       Tory MPs are also concerned about upcoming by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton in Devon and Wakefield in West Yorkshire, which polling over the weekend suggested the party is on course to lose.

       According to Betfair, Mr Johnson is 2/5 to win a Vote of Confidence in his leadership of the Tory party after the motion was triggered this morning. However, he is odds-on at 5/6 to leave No.10 this year

       Full list of odds:

       Betfair: Boris Johnson to win Vote of Confidence

       Yes: 2/5

       No: 15/8

       Betfair Exchange: Boris Johnson exit date

       2022: 5/6 (was 5/4 last week)

       2023: 5/1

       2024 or later: 2/1

       Betfair Exchange: Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson

       Jeremy Hunt: 9/2

       Liz Truss: 7/1

       Tom Tugendhat: 8/1

       Penny Mordaunt: 8/1

       Rishi Sunak: 9/1

       Ben Wallace: 12/1

       Nadhim Zahawi: 17/1

       Recommended Sajid Javid backs Boris Johnson but says Tory MPs ‘entitled’ to vote for new leader Confidence vote marks ‘beginning of the end’ for Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer says Johnson faces crunch vote on his leadership following partygate revelations

       Sajid Javid: 19/1

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