From left, Taro Kono, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda, are seen answering questions during the online "LDP Open Town Meeting" held at LDP headquarters in Tokyo's Chiyoda Ward on Sept. 26, 2021. (Mainichi/Toshiki Miyama)
TOKYO -- While COVID-19 vaccine minister Taro Kono is anticipated to come first in the Sept. 29 presidential election for Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), former policy council head Fumio Kishida appears set to receive the most LDP Diet member votes, making it unlikely Kono can secure a majority of overall votes. As a result, a runoff between the top two candidates is expected, according to Mainichi Shimbun analysis.
According to studies conducted during the final stages prior to the leadership election, Kishida, 64, of the Kishida faction, has secured over 130 Diet member votes, followed by administrative reform minister Kono, 58, of the Taro Aso faction, and former communications minister Sanae Takaichi, 60, who does not belong to a faction.
Kono is expected to win over 30% of the 764 votes available -- 382 of which come from LDP Diet members, the other 382 are from party members based on voting by party members and non-party member supporters. But it appears he will not gain the majority needed to become the LDP's next president and likely Japan's next prime minister. Therefore, a runoff election between the initial round's top two candidates is highly likely.
The Mainichi Shimbun looked into upcoming election standings using interviews with Diet members and their secretaries, among other individuals, conducted up to Sept. 27. While Kishida has secured over 130 votes from Diet members, Kono follows with more than 100, and Takaichi with over 80. LDP Executive Acting Secretary-General Seiko Noda, 61, who does not belong to any faction, is estimated to gain about 20 votes.
Kishida has established a base within his own 46-member faction, and also gained support from over half of the 51-member Takeshita faction headed by the late Wataru Takeshita, former LDP General Council Chairperson. He has also increased his standing within the largest, 96-member Hiroyuki Hosoda faction and the 53-strong Aso faction. Although the Takeshita faction had delayed deciding its position, it was effectively confirmed at the faction's Sept. 27 general meeting that it will support Kishida. The faction will also allow members to freely back the other candidates.
Kono has the support of about 50% of the Aso faction, as well a great share of Shigeru Ishiba's 16-member faction and the 10-member Ishihara faction headed by Nobuteru Ishihara. He has also spread his base to about 40% of the 47-member faction of Toshihiro Nikai. Takaichi is backed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has support from over half of the members in the Hosoda faction, over which Abe has a strong influence. Noda is struggling to expand her support base.
Analysis on votes from party members was done via interviews held between Sept. 17 and 22 to senior officials of federations of prefectural LDP chapters and other subjects. When estimating standings for the presidential election, taking into account votes from both Diet members and party members, Kono is likely to gain support in the mid-30% range, while Kishida is estimated to get just over 30%, and a close race is forecast between the two. It is estimated Takaichi will receive slightly over 20% of votes, while Noda is predicted to receive below 10% support. However, about 10% of Diet members are still undecided or their allegiance remains unknown, meaning the standings are still fluid.
On Sept. 27, Kono told reporters in Tokyo there is no change to his strategy of achieving victory "based on vast public support." Kishida said, "The results won't be known until the very end," and emphasized that he "wishes to fight until the end while staying vigilant." Takaichi said she feels "the situation is looking better" while Noda said, "I'll keep running until the very end."
(Japanese original by Keiko Takahashi, Political News Department)
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