LONDON: To the many reverberations from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another might be an early end to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+) oil supply pact.

       The 23-nation alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is due to finish restoring production halted during the pandemic by the end of September.

       But as European Union sanctions threaten to curtail the exports of Opec+ member Russia, Riyadh could bring back the barrels earlier than scheduled, RBC Capital Markets LLC predicts.

       Such a move may satisfy the Biden administration’s repeated calls for help in dealing with politically damaging levels of inflation.

       The kingdom would likely attach conditions to any changes to the pact as it seeks to improve its strained partnership with the United States and comprehensive assurances on regional security, said RBC.

       Trips to the country by American envoys – and the prospect of a visit by President Joe Biden himself – might seal the deal.

       “There’s been too much shuttle diplomacy for this to be smoke and mirrors about a United States-Saudi reset,” RBC strategist Helima Croft said in an interview.

       The Wall Street Journal reported that Opec is contemplating an even more radical option: suspending Russia from the coalition’s quota system, as sanctions prevent Moscow from increasing output.

       The Saudis and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) might fill the resulting supply gap, the WSJ said.

       That could be a step too far, requiring President Vladimir Putin to voluntarily surrender share of the oil market and assist the EU’s counter-offensive against his military campaign.

       Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is in Riyadh on Wednesday meeting counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

       Lavrov and his Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan “praised the level of cooperation in the Opec+ format,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

       “They noted the stabilising effect that tight coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia in this strategically important area has on the global hydrocarbon market.”

       Still, even if Opec+ doesn’t pursue an extreme option, the expectation that it will stick with a pre-programmed schedule of supply increases for the months ahead no longer seems a safe bet it was.

       “If Opec makes up for Russia’s shortfall, then oil prices will drop further, whereas prices will continue its increase if Opec holds onto their current production levels even without Russia,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. — Bloomberg