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Lok Sabha polls 2024: Opinion poll predicts clear win for BJP. Check numbers here

2024-03-06 00:00:00.0 铸币报-政治原网页

With the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 just months away, an opinion poll has shown that Narendra Modi could win a third term as prime minister. As per the India TV-CNX opinion poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win 378 out of 543 seats while the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc is likely to win 98 seats.

Opinion poll prediction for BJP vs India Bloc

The opinion poll conducted in 543 Lok Sabha constituencies between February 5 and 23 suggested that the BJP could win up to 335 seats on its own, crossing its 303-seat mark in 2019. The poll also showed that the BJP could win all 26 seats in Gujarat, all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, all 25 seats in Rajasthan, all 10 seats in Haryana, all 7 seats in Delhi, all 5 seats in Uttarakhand and all 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh.

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In other states including Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha, the party is projected to win 17 seats out of 40, 12 out of 14, and 10 out of 21 seats, respectively. In Assam where it is the ruling party, the opinion poll predicted that it might win 10 out of 14 seats. In Maharashtra, India TV-CNX Opinion Poll predicted that the Modi-led party might bag 25 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. It also indicated that the BJP could see an improvement in West Bengal seats, where it predicted to win 20 of the 42 seats as opposed to the previous 18 seats; however, the Trinamool Congress may emerge as the winner, clinching 21 seats.

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In the southern states, the BJP is likely to win the currently Congress-ruled Karnataka by winning 22 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats while in Kerala, the party could get 3 seats. It could bag 4 and 5 seats in Tamil Nadu and Telangana, respectively. The ruling DMK is predicted to win 20 seats in the state.

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On the other hand, the INDIA bloc, an amalgamation of the leading opposition parties that came up last year to fight together in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections against the BJP-led NDA, is set to win only 98 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024. According to the survey, TMC, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, Naveen Patnaik's BJD, and independents are predicted to win 67 seats.

Earlier in February, The India Today group conducted an opinion poll that showed that the Narendra Modi government in all likelihood will get a third term amid its strong performance in North India, whereas the Congress and its allies will once again be on the losing side but will show a good fight in South India with the formation of the INDIA bloc. The poll predicted the NDA getting over 300+ seats in the Lok Sabha. The INDIA bloc is likely to get 166 seats while others get 42 seats.

BJP's performance in 2019 general elections

In the seven-phase general elections held between April 11 and May 19, 2019, the BJP won 303 seats with a record 37.36 per cent vote share, the highest vote share by a political party since the 1989 general election. Overall, the BJP-led NDA won 353 seats. The Congress won 52 seats while the United Progressive Alliance won 91 seats in the election.

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