OPINION
Macron and Starmer confront similar challenges - but the UK PM has a giant majority (Image: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publis)
France today is a nightmare vision of where Britain will end up if Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves duck the tough decisions needed to drag this country’s finances out of the danger zone. The French have cycled through five prime ministers since 2022, with Fran？ois Bayrou ejected this week after MPs refused to back his plans to hack away at their ￡2.9trillion debt mountain.
Trade unions are threatening to take to the streets and a grassroots movement – unsubtly named Let’s Block Everything – plans to unleash chaos. The traditional parties of power in France have withered away, with groupings of the hard Left and Right now vying for support as a beleaguered Emmanuel Macron watches from the splendour of the élysée.
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A great country looks ungovernable. One of Bayrou’s crimes in the eyes of his opponents was to scrap two national holidays; MPs can see the horrors on the nation’s spreadsheet but do not want to be the ones to make France a less luxurious country.
For Labour, there is a sobering parallel between Starmer’s Britain and Macron’s France. The UK Government was humiliated in June when proposals to rein in benefits spending had to be abandoned in the face of internal opposition.
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Experts warn of a black hole of around ￡50billion in our public finances which will have to be filled through spending cuts and tax rises. But what can the Chancellor do that won’t appal some faction on the sprawling Labour backbenches?
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Labour and the Tory MPs can sympathise with colleagues in once-mighty parties across the Channel which have been abandoned by voters for alternatives on the Left and Right.
Despite winning a landslide majority last year, Labour is now 10 points behind Reform UK in Politico’s poll of polls on a mere 21%, with the Tories on an even more miserable 17%. Meanwhile, ambitious Left-wingers are mobilising with Zack Polanski winning the Green party leadership and former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn forming a new socialist group.
Read more: French PM warns parliament ‘don’t be like Britain’ as he faces final hours
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There is a key difference between the situation facing Macron and Starmer. France’s parliament is hopelessly divided but Westminster is absolutely dominated by Labour; thanks to our first past the post system, Labour won 412 MPs with just 33.7% of the vote. There is no need to hold another election until 2029.
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Macron and other European leaders will look at Starmer’s parliamentary firepower with awe and envy. These are precisely the conditions in which a prime minister should be able to take difficult decisions to address deficits, reform entitlements and get borrowing costs under control.
Keir Starmer should see France's woes as a cautionary tale for what could await the UK (Image: Getty)
There are signs the PM is preparing for a new push on welfare, with the appointment of Pat McFadden as Work and Pensions Secertary and the poaching of Darren Jones from the Treasury to serve as his Chief Secretary.
In his gut, the PM will know that history will be scathing if he lets the country’s present problems multiply and bequeaths these to a future – potentially much weaker – government. It is time for him to stop worrying about a distant general election and start focusing on small-r reform.
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