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Nigel Farage's Reform UK on course for historic snatch from Labour strongholds

2024-07-04 00:00:00.0 每日快报-政治原网页

BBC reveal the results of the General Election exit poll

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"Many others who lack his fortitude will lose their seats tonight."

Speaking after his victory in Ashfield, Mr Anderson told reporters he was "delighted but not surprised" at winning the party's first 2024 seat.

"This is the capital of common sense, by the way - people speak their mind in this area, and they've had enough of the two mainstream parties.

"The Reform Party, people like myself, Richard (Tice) and Nigel (Farage) speak the same language, in a different accent obviously, we speak the same language as the great people of Ashfield.

"So when this gig came up and I was asked to stand again for the Reform Party, it was a no-brainer to be honest with you."

He added: "The two main parties in this country do not listen to the people of Ashfield and other places like this across the country - but they're going to listen now.

"As I said a few weeks back, there's going to be a reckoning on election night - there has been a seismic reckoning in Ashfield and throughout the country.

"Reform are picking up seats tonight - make no bones about it.

"Next week, I'll be on the green benches with Nigel and a few others, and we're going to give them hell."

Among the seats the party were predicted to win include Barnsley South, Barnsley North and Hartlepool, according to analysis.

But the Labour candidates in both Barnsley seats clung on. And Sir Keir Starmer's party also gained Hartlepool.

This would mean Reform UK had made serious inroads into Labour strongholds.

The party has come second in many seats across the north of England, beating the Conservatives in many of the early declarations.

Mr Farage is also almost certain to win Clacton, and Rupert Lowe is set to claim Great Yarmouth.

It is his eighth attempt to become an MP, having failed on each previous attempt.

The exit poll by Ipsos UK for Sky News, the BBC and ITV News, said Reform UK have a likelihood of 99%-plus to gain the seat in Essex.

The Brexit Champion declared tonight: “It’s midnight, there are two results in from the north east of England that put Reform on 30% of the vote - that is way more than any possible prediction or projection, it’s almost unbelievable.

“And what does it mean? It means Reform is going to win seats, many many seats I think right now across the country.

“But to watch the TV coverage it’s almost comical. There’s not a single representative on there from Reform UK, mainstream media are in denial just as much as our political parties.

“This is going to be six million votes plus. This, folks, is huge.”

The party's deputy leader, David Bull, said the party has a "five year plan" and hailed its success in its first General Election.

He added: “If this is true, it is a historic night. To win 13 seats for a start up... we’re only four years old.. that would be an incredible result for us.”

He adds: “We’re a common sense party that believes in low tax, low regulation and low growth. We say that immigration needs to come down and there’s the resonance for people around the country.”

He said “attacks” from Rishi Sunak and the press on Reform UK meant support for the party grew. He said the Tories are “destroyed” and pledged that Nigel Farage will be Prime Minister by 2029.

Conservative Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said it would be "interesting" to see whether Nigel Farage can achieve "a realignment of the right in British politics".

Asked whether he thought the Tories should have sought to join forces with Mr Farage, the former Conservative minister said: "We are where we are and the disaster doesn't seem to have been averted.

"You'll have to ask Nigel what his plans are. I think he looks for and seeks a realignment of the right in British politics, and it will be interesting to see whether he can achieve that."

The populist party, formed out of the ashes of the Brexit Party, has electrified the campaign during the past six weeks.

Such has been its surge, Reform has challenged the Conservatives for second place in the popular vote.

Mr Farage claims they will, one day, be the opposition party to Labour and has set his sights on the next election, due to be held in 2029 at the latest, as Reform’s big target.

But their incredible rise has cost the Conservatives a significant proportion of voters from the political Right.

As support for the Tories has plunged, Reform’s has soared, leaving them with the chance to win at least three seats in Parliament.

Nigel Farage gets 'milkshaked' in Clacton (Image: Getty)

Election result live Labour wins majority

New result: Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire？Lib Demgain +++ Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire？Lib Demgain

650/ 650 results in

？ Labour 412

？ Conservative 121

？ Lib Dem 72

？ SNP 9

？ Reform 5

？ Green 4

？ Other 27

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One of those trio is Mr Farage, who is expected to win in Clacton by a handsome margin, meaning he will finally become an MP at the eighth attempt.

On the eve of polling day a YouGov poll suggested former Tory MP Lee Anderson could cling onto his Ashfield seat, but this time for Reform.

Rupert Lowe is also predicted to win for Reform in Great Yarmouth.

But victory could elude Reform UK chair and former leader Richard Tice in Boston & Skegness who may miss out in a tight race with the Conservative Matt Warman.

Reform were already polling well as Rishi Sunak shocked everyone and called the snap general election on May 22.

But it was the dramatic return of its co-founder that sent the party into orbit.

Mr Farage had previously ruled out standing in the general election in his first campaign speech on May 23, promising to support Mr Tice from the sidelines instead.

But just over a week later he was back in charge with a promise to lead a “political revolt” aimed at toppling the Conservative Party.

Thousands of people turned up to his first appearance in the Essex seaside town in a clear sign of things to come.

Not even having a milkshake hurled at him could dampen the mood.

Rallies in Clacton and across the country involved fireworks and fervent support in equal measure.

Nigel Farage and Lee Anderson (Image: Getty)

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Inevitably, with such a well liked but divisive politician, controversy often follows.

First it was Mr Farage’s comments about Nato being to blame for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

He also took a swipe at Boris Johnson and Volodymyr Zelensky’s war strategy, saying it will lead to every “young man” in the country being killed.

And then came the race row when a campaigner for Mr Farage was caught making racist and Islamophobic slurs on camera

Reform’s leader said he was “dismayed” about the abhorrent comments about Mr Sunak and the “shooting” of migrants.

But he now claims it was a “set-up”, pointing to the fact that the individual in question, Andrew Parker, is an “actor”.

He was also forced to turf out three of his Reform team for making “vulgar and wrong” comments in the Channel 4 expose.

Recent polls showed the scandals had hit the party’s support, but not that hard.

Founded in 2021, Reform UK advocated against further lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Since 2022, it has campaigned on a broader platform, in particular pledging to reduce net migration, supporting low taxation, and opposing the government's net-zero energy policy.

Reform gained its first MP in March this year after Mr Anderson, a former deputy chairman of the Tory Party, defected following his suspension over a row about Sadiq Khan.

From the outset, Reform meant business.

The party stood candidates at the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections in 2021.

Though failing to pick up any seats, the party gathered just over 42,500 supporters across all three elections.

The party’s backing in the polls remained largely static throughout 2021, averaging around three percentage points, although it had risen to an average of 6 per cent by the end of 2022 amid growing public frustration with the Conservative Party in the wake of the deposition of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

The party’s fortunes improved vastly during 2023 and the early months of 2024, with average support for Reform almost doubling from 6 per cent in January 2023 to 10.1 per cent at the start of March.

The rise of Reform can be attributed to a combination of the party’s policy offer and fortuitous circumstances.

On the economic front, it has promised sweeping cuts to levies including corporation tax and inheritance tax at a time when Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt were overseeing the country’s highest tax burden since the Second World War, with a further peak projected later this decade.

Despite successive Conservative governments promising to cut immigration, net migration reached record levels in 2022 and former leader Mr Tice has cited this “betrayal” by the Tory government of its past manifesto pledges as a driving force behind his party’s success.

Research from the More in Common think tank in February 2022 found that immigration was the main reason 2019 Tory voters were defecting to Reform, with around one in five of those who backed Boris Johnson and his party at the last election expected to support Mr Farage.

Reform’s promises on border control include “net zero immigration”, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – a demand made by many Tory backbenchers, and a popular idea among the party’s grassroots – and declaring illegal immigration as a national security threat.

The party wants to introduce an immigration tax that would force employers to pay a higher National Insurance (NI) rate on foreign workers.

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