TRIPOLI, Libya — Ten years ago, Khaled Mami cheered the fall of Moammar Gaddafi’s regime, hoping it would usher in a new period of prosperity. Instead, Libya was consumed by civil strife.
By the time a cease-fire was signed last year, an economic crisis had devastated Mami’s clothing business, and one of his young sons was dead — killed in a mortar attack on their home just south of the capital, Tripoli.
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Now, as Libya prepares to hold its first-ever presidential election this month, Mami, 48, is among the many Libyans who fear that the contest may push the country back into turmoil.
Among the 98 people who have registered to run are two of the most divisive figures in recent Libyan history: Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity, and Khalifa Hifter, a warlord based in eastern Libya who carried out a year-long siege of the capital. Interim prime minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who had previously pledged not to enter the race, has also registered to run.
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Those three figures command allegiance among rival segments of the Libyan population, and none is likely to emerge as a unifying figure. To the contrary, many Libyans are afraid the election could stir renewed passions and grievances, plunging Libya back into civil war.
“I don’t want to choose another guy from the garbage,” Mami said. “Why does everyone want to rule the country by force?”
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While Libya is a resource-rich country with the largest oil reserves in Africa, a decade of unrest has impoverished many in the country and made it a proxy battleground for foreign powers — including Turkey, Russia and the United Arab Emirates — that have at times intervened with thousands of foreign fighters.
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Western governments and the United Nations have pushed for the election — the first round is set for Dec. 24 — and described it as a crucial step in the country’s recovery, threatening to sanction any spoilers. Parliamentary elections are supposed to take place soon after.
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Emad al-Sayah, chairman of the High National Election Commission, said the ballot box is the key to determining “the future of the political track of Libya.” The country will “either continue on the track of democracy and peaceful devolution of power,” he said, “or go to square zero, where war will take place.”
Many fear the worst. If either Hifter or Gaddafi wins, “there will be war,” predicted Salah Tomi, who owns a construction company in the capital. He plans to vote for Dbeibah, hoping this might avoid further bloodshed.
Hifter was an ally and then a rival of Moammar Gaddafi. A former CIA asset and U.S. citizen who long lived in Northern Virginia, Hifter now leads the Libyan National Army, a force based in the country’s east, where he controls significant territory. In 2019, his forces set their sights on Tripoli, where a U.N.-backed government has been in power. That offensive was ultimately repulsed, and Hifter has been accused in U.S. courts of committing war crimes during the offensive. He has tried to claim immunity.
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Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, captured by rebels in 2011 shortly after his father was killed in the uprising, was held for years in the mountain town of Zintan. A Tripoli court sentenced him to death in absentia on charges of war crimes committed during the revolutionary period. The International Criminal Court also issued an arrest warrant for him on charges of murder and persecution. After a long absence from the public eye, he reemerged this year.
Dbeibah, meanwhile, is a wealthy businessman who was born in the coastal city of Misurata and led the state-owned Libyan Investment and Development Co. during the Gaddafi regime. He later entered politics and was named prime minister in February as part of the U.N.-led peace process. Since taking office, he has gained some popular support among young voters, in part through a pledge to pay cash to newlyweds.
The fault lines among the three candidates are largely geographic, with Hifter’s supporters primarily in the east and his opponents coalescing around Dbeibah in the west and Gaddafi in the south.
“There’s a conflict on the horizon between those three camps,” said Anas El Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a Libyan think tank. He said Gaddafi and Hifter are “two candidates in particular who bring with them the prospect of more war, not more peace.”
All three men have been accused of violating the candidate eligibility criteria, with concerns raised over Gaddafi’s criminal conviction, Dbeibah’s pledge not to run and his failure to step down three months before the vote, and Hifter’s purported dual U.S. citizenship and assault on Tripoli.
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Both Gaddafi and Dbeibah were deemed ineligible this week, but they appealed the decisions, and Dbeibah was cleared Wednesday to run. A court in the northwestern city of Zawiya determined Hifter is also not eligible, and his next steps were not immediately clear. Appeals could create a drawn-out process that political observers fear would delay the election and sow more distrust among voters and anger among the contenders’ supporters.
Claudia Gazzini, senior Libya analyst at the International Crisis Group, said, “There’s a palpable fear .？.？. that candidates that are very polarizing will contest the results either if they run or don’t run, if they lose or if they win.”
Although some Libyans have expressed optimism about the democratic process, many are confused about where to place their support.
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“I don’t believe in any of them,” said Riad Ali Joha, 50, a businessman and parliamentary candidate from Misurata. “They’re all thieves.”
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Some Libyans, however, are getting behind Gaddafi, even though his father ended his rule in ignominy.
Mabrouk Alikassak, 23, was a child when the elder Gaddafi was overthrown. But Alikassak listens closely when his parents speak nostalgically about the days before the revolution and the turmoil that followed. Now, Alikassak says he thinks “we probably need to go back to the same regime.”
“For 10 years, we haven’t had anything,” he said, pausing from his work selling traditional men’s clothing in a small shop in Tripoli’s old town. “My heart is leaning toward Saif al-Islam.”
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More war is what Mami and his family say they fear most.
Mami was among those who fled during Hifter’s siege of Tripoli, leaving behind a farmhouse in Ein Zara, a suburb south of the capital. Mami moved in with his relatives, while his wife, Hana, took their daughter, Elaf, and three sons, Suliman, Hamoudi and Nooraldin, to stay with hers.
When they finally thought it was safe, they returned together to their spacious farm surrounded by lush olive and orange trees. Then came the mortar attack, which Mami blames on forces linked to Hifter. Suliman’s head was split open, and Nooraldin needed four surgeries, including on his stomach, depleting the family’s savings, Mami recalled. Hamoudi, who was 10, died before they could even reach a hospital.
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They are still waking from nightmares and paying enormous hospital bills, still grieving beside Hamoudi’s empty bed and tending to the geraniums he planted just three days before he died.
Mami and Hana said they will ultimately accept whichever candidate can fairly win the election. But they know a new president can’t restore their former life.
“Every night I put my head on the pillow and repeat the same scenario,” Hana said. “Who’s going to replace the peace I had before?”
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