Open this photo in gallery

       Election campaign billboards showing German chancellor candidates Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union stand in Berlin on Sept. 21, 2021, ahead of federal parliamentary elections on Sept. 26.

       SeanGallup/Getty Images

       A new German chancellor to replace Angela Merkel after a decade and a half in power will be determined by an election on Sept. 26 – a choice following a campaign that has focused more on character than policy as Germans seek a steady hand to carry them through the remainder of the pandemic, combat the climate crisis and maintain its central force as a unifying power in the European Union.

       Germans are struggling to imagine their country without Ms. Merkel, perhaps because of “the candidates or the low quality of the electoral campaign,” said a recent poll from the European Council on Foreign Relations. But, more likely because of Ms. Merkel’s personality.

       Europeans also think of her as a trustworthy, pro-European power. However, it said, her success does not mean the new leader should try to be the same, saying that Germany’s actions in the past have raised expectations about its potential to be a leader that the “crisis-ridden EU needs so badly, struggling as it is to defend its values and find a place in a world of renewed great power competition.”

       “To fulfil this role, Berlin will have to reinvent itself,” the council said.

       But much of the election campaign so far has been characterized by blunders several of the candidates have made, causing German voters to question their ability to succeed Ms. Merkel.

       Armin Laschet, the candidate for Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, made a significant mistake following the devastating flooding in northwestern Germany, which killed 180 people. Mr. Laschet was caught on camera laughing as German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier made a sober speech.

       Green Party candidate Annalena Baerbock also made some flubs. In an outdoor event in her riding, she mixed up a region’s name. Even worse, after the publication of her book, Now: How We Renew Our Country, a media researcher found “multiple copyright violations” in the book. And, Ms. Baerbock was forced to rewrite her CV after the discovery of inconsistencies.

       Mr. Laschet had began the campaign with a significant advantage over his opponents, but even the weight of his party and Ms. Merkel’s endorsement does not appear to be enough.

       Mr. Laschet was chosen by the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, as the candidate to succeed Ms. Merkel in April. Before that, in 2018, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had been elected to become Ms. Merkel’s successor as party leader. However, she quit in 2020, creating an opening for Mr. Laschet. He was then challenged for the candidacy position by Markus Soeder, the head of the CSU.

       The leadership race between Mr. Laschet and Mr. Soeder was a short but notable rivalry, and has been chief in voter’s minds since the beginning of the campaign, said professor Ursula Muench, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, Germany.

       Story continues below advertisement

       Prof. Muench said that even before the official election campaign was under way, the public had already begun questioning who would be the best candidate for chancellor between the two men.

       “I think that was the problem for Armin Laschet,” she said. Until recently, Mr. Soeder continued to insist he would have been the better candidate, she said, adding that the tension around his candidacy began early on.

       Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, described Mr. Laschet’s mistakes as “unforced errors.” She said the biggest example is when Mr. Laschet laughed following the floods. “Because of the virtual world that we live in, that’s very hard for him to escape, even though he’s apologized for it,” she said.

       Before that, she said, he was cast as a waffling candidate because he was constantly changing his mind on pandemic restrictions. “I think that perhaps people were wondering: Is he the crisis manager that he claims to be in the style of Merkel?” she said.

       Ms. David-Wilp said the dynamic between Mr. Laschet and Ms. Merkel also poses a challenge, saying he has to show that he wants to make change, while trying to ride on the coattails of her popularity in Germany and in Europe. “He’s already automatically in a hard position,” she said.

       But another problem the CDU faces is that it’s “lost a certain kind of energy,” said Prof. Muench.

       She said that at the beginning of the campaign, the Conservatives were able to mobilize against another political enemy – Green candidate Ms. Baerbock.

       “I think it was easier to mobilize against her because she is very young, she has no experience in executive positions … but now, she’s had her own problems,” she said.

       The Greens had gained much support in the past few years, benefitting from people’s demands to take stricter actions to combat the climate crisis. Their two party leaders, Ms. Baerbock and Robert Habeck, were considered friendly and progressive, attracting not only climate activists but also people from the centre of society. In some polls, they were even ahead of the Christian Democrats.

       However, right after the party nominated Ms. Baerbock as their chancellor candidate in April, her popularity went downhill. In an interview, Mr. Habeck gave the impression that Ms. Baerbock had only been selected for her gender and that he would have been the better one to do the job. And then Ms. Baerbock made a series of mistakes, particularly the issues with her book and resume.

       Ms. Muench said because of her mistakes, the Greens lost support, and now the CDU is facing off against the Social Democrats and Olaf Scholz, who is experienced and most recently, the federal finance minister.

       Until recently, political observers did not give the Social Democratic Party, or SPD, much of a chance. The party, which had once been one of the two great German Volksparteien, which means a mass party with broad support, was lagging in the polls, only reaching some 15 per cent. Many people said that they did not know the party’s goals and did not trust it to lead the country. The SPD had some fierce internal struggles, and many were skeptical whether it would ever recover.

       This changed dramatically in the past few weeks. The SPD took the lead in the polls, and its chancellor candidate Scholz could now lead the next German government.

       Political scientist Elmar Wiesendahl said that voters who had previously turned their back to the Social Democrats are returning because of Mr. Laschet’s and Ms. Baerbock’s mistakes.

       “We have an enormous mobility of voters in the camps,” Mr. Wiesendahl says. “People who had previously voted Green have started to realize that Baerbock will never become chancellor.” Mr. Laschet, on the other hand, suffers from a “disastrous image,” he said, adding that people would now consider voting strategically for the SPD to prevent the CDU leader from becoming chancellor.

       But this is not the only explanation for the Social Democratic success. In the eyes of the voters, Mr. Scholz seems to be a good match for the current political climate. He is a long-term politician who has served as a prime minister of the German state of Hamburg, a minister of employment at the federal level, and as finance minister under Ms. Merkel. In 2019, he wanted to become the SPD’s leader – but his party was skeptical. He was considered to be experienced but too centrist, too dry, and too dull.

       But now, these traits have become an asset, said Mr. Wiesendahl. With the pandemic, the recent flooding, and the crisis in Afghanistan, people crave someone who guarantees stability. “People want a strong decision maker at the top.” With his long-term government experience, Mr. Scholz has satisfied that image, Mr. Wiesendahl said.

       Nevertheless, the race is still open. Recently, the Christian Democrats have gained some ground in the polls. They have accused Mr. Scholz of not having done enough to tackle financial crime. Earlier this month, German prosecutors raided his finance ministry as part of an investigation.

       So far, Mr. Scholz has given the impression that he was not personally responsible – and he has fared quite well with this approach. But if another problem arose, he could stumble as well. “There is a limit at some point,” says Mr. Wiesendahl. “People will start to wonder whether Mr. Scholz does have some mess.”