Lawrence C. Levy is executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University and a former columnist and editorial writer at Newsday who has covered eight presidential elections. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

       (CNN)"At last," say Democrats who decry the outsized influence that Iowa and New Hampshire have in picking their party's presidential nominee. It's finally time for a Democratic nominating contest -- the Nevada caucuses -- where voters reflect the party's overall diversity.

       It's true, Nevada can provide a more complete picture of America's diversity than the two states that came before it. But don't overlook an important group of voters that is often ignored in these early states, including Nevada: the moderate "swing" suburbanites who decide national elections.

       What the suburbs tell us is not necessarily who can win party caucuses and primaries, in which the candidates speak mostly to "blue" Democrats, but the candidates who can attract "purple voters" when it most counts -- in general elections.

       As southern New Hampshire and areas like West Des Moines did in the first two nominating contests, Nevada will offer bellwether suburbs to watch on Saturday night.

       Yes, Nevada's diversity compared to its predecessors on the early contest calendar is important. New Hampshire, the Granite State, is so white, relatively speaking, compared to the rest of the nation (90% versus 60%) that it easily could be renamed the Marble State. Iowa is close behind at 85%. Meanwhile, about 49% of Nevadans are white, more than 10% below the national average. In fact, in Nevada, caucus cards will be offered in the Filipino language of Tagalog.

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       But it's the burgeoning suburbs, particularly the diverse ones, that will give you a more complete and compelling idea of the candidates' potential in November.

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       Take North Las Vegas. At 41% Latino, this sprawling suburb is even more diverse than the larger "Sin City" with which it shares a border. Its diversity reflects a two-decade or longer surge of minorities in urbanized "inner-ring" suburbs around the country. This is in part why so many of these suburbs -- from Orange County California to Nassau County, New York -- have been trending Democratic in recent years: Many of the white voters who once made them Republican bastions have either moved or died and have been largely replaced by Democratic-leaning people of color.

       Then there's Henderson. About 13 miles from Las Vegas, Henderson looks more like the kind of wealthy, white, outer-ring suburb where Republicans still hold their own, and the parties fight it out competitively in congressional, state and local races. Seen as one diverse suburb, however, North Las Vegas and Henderson could serve as a collective snapshot of what -- and who -- a range of swing suburban voters are looking for.

       But those results won't come until later this week. The bellwether has already rung in New Hampshire, where an increasing share of the population includes suburbanites. And party voters in New Hampshire's burgeoning southern suburbs had a lot to say about the sort of candidates who can do best what an overwhelming number consider their priority -- beat President Trump.

       As for who came out on top in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders may have lost for winning so indecisively. This progressive of progressives received about 26% of the vote, but his sub-2% margin of victory fell short of expectations (about three points below his final polling average). More significantly, he was downright anemic among key suburban swing voters.

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       If Sanders proved that he could get out a very loyal base, the self-described socialist hasn't yet proved that he can build a bridge to suburban moderates.

       As Hofstra University's recent suburban-oriented Kalikow Poll suggests, the New Hampshire suburbs seemed to echo what we've been hearing in politically purple counties for years: We will vote for left-of-center candidates, but not too far left. We will embrace progressive causes, but we prefer evolution, not revolution.

       According to Hofstra's poll, about 64% of suburbanites consider climate change a problem. Some 66% favor same sex marriage, 71% support raising the minimum wage, 63% at least somewhat agree that the government should try to substantially close the gap between rich and poor, and 60% support a ban on assault-style, semi-automatic rifles. In most of those categories, suburban attitudes were less progressive a decade ago.

       Most worrisome for Sanders in the most recent Hofstra poll is where suburbanites stand on his signature proposal -- Medicare for All. Just 36% of these swing voters support it. And in Nevada, that may come back to bite him: In an escalating controversy, the powerful Culinary Workers Union has criticized Sanders for threatening to "take away" their negotiated health care benefits.

       Meanwhile, the most revealing number from New Hampshire may be this: About 65% of Democratic voters chose a candidate other than Sanders or Warren -- who are inarguably more progressive than the others.

       In the suburbs, the figure appeared to be even higher. This doesn't mean that Sanders, if he wins the nomination, can't overwhelm the polls with a progressive base and capture just enough moderates to beat Trump. But New Hampshire shows he has a long way to go. Joe Biden's poor showing throughout the state says the same thing.

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       The two big success stories from New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, did especially well with suburban voters. Both of them outperformed Sanders in the southern suburbs. Unsurprisingly, they have positioned themselves as relatively moderate, center-lefties who preach compromise and evolution, not revolution.

       Every vote counts, but if both sides bring out their bases in roughly equal numbers, it's suburban voters around the country who will break the tie between urban Democrats and rural Republicans. Watch for them in the suburbs of Nevada -- and in every state beyond.

       But it's the burgeoning suburbs, particularly the diverse ones, that will give you a more complete and compelling idea of the candidates' potential in November.

       Take North Las Vegas. At 41% Latino, this sprawling suburb is even more diverse than the larger "Sin City" with which it shares a border. Its diversity reflects a two-decade or longer surge of minorities in urbanized "inner-ring" suburbs around the country. This is in part why so many of these suburbs -- from Orange County California to Nassau County, New York -- have been trending Democratic in recent years: Many of the white voters who once made them Republican bastions have either moved or died and have been largely replaced by Democratic-leaning people of color.

       Then there's Henderson. About 13 miles from Las Vegas, Henderson looks more like the kind of wealthy, white, outer-ring suburb where Republicans still hold their own, and the parties fight it out competitively in congressional, state and local races. Seen as one diverse suburb, however, North Las Vegas and Henderson could serve as a collective snapshot of what -- and who -- a range of swing suburban voters are looking for.

       But those results won't come until later this week. The bellwether has already rung in New Hampshire, where an increasing share of the population includes suburbanites. And party voters in New Hampshire's burgeoning southern suburbs had a lot to say about the sort of candidates who can do best what an overwhelming number consider their priority -- beat President Trump.

       As for who came out on top in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders may have lost for winning so indecisively. This progressive of progressives received about 26% of the vote, but his sub-2% margin of victory fell short of expectations (about three points below his final polling average). More significantly, he was downright anemic among key suburban swing voters.

       If Sanders proved that he could get out a very loyal base, the self-described socialist hasn't yet proved that he can build a bridge to suburban moderates.

       As Hofstra University's recent suburban-oriented Kalikow Poll suggests, the New Hampshire suburbs seemed to echo what we've been hearing in politically purple counties for years: We will vote for left-of-center candidates, but not too far left. We will embrace progressive causes, but we prefer evolution, not revolution.

       According to Hofstra's poll, about 64% of suburbanites consider climate change a problem. Some 66% favor same sex marriage, 71% support raising the minimum wage, 63% at least somewhat agree that the government should try to substantially close the gap between rich and poor, and 60% support a ban on assault-style, semi-automatic rifles. In most of those categories, suburban attitudes were less progressive a decade ago.

       Most worrisome for Sanders in the most recent Hofstra poll is where suburbanites stand on his signature proposal -- Medicare for All. Just 36% of these swing voters support it. And in Nevada, that may come back to bite him: In an escalating controversy, the powerful Culinary Workers Union has criticized Sanders for threatening to "take away" their negotiated health care benefits.

       Meanwhile, the most revealing number from New Hampshire may be this: About 65% of Democratic voters chose a candidate other than Sanders or Warren -- who are inarguably more progressive than the others.

       In the suburbs, the figure appeared to be even higher. This doesn't mean that Sanders, if he wins the nomination, can't overwhelm the polls with a progressive base and capture just enough moderates to beat Trump. But New Hampshire shows he has a long way to go. Joe Biden's poor showing throughout the state says the same thing.

       The two big success stories from New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, did especially well with suburban voters. Both of them outperformed Sanders in the southern suburbs. Unsurprisingly, they have positioned themselves as relatively moderate, center-lefties who preach compromise and evolution, not revolution.

       Every vote counts, but if both sides bring out their bases in roughly equal numbers, it's suburban voters around the country who will break the tie between urban Democrats and rural Republicans. Watch for them in the suburbs of Nevada -- and in every state beyond.