TOKYO – The political obituaries are already being pre-written for what could well be Japan’s shortest post-war premiership, if the outcome in a hastily called snap election on Oct 27 does not favour Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

       But it was not meant to be this way. Mr Ishiba, 67, had for years topped the public’s choice for prime minister, and he is supposed to be enjoying a “honeymoon period” after taking office on Oct 1.

       Yet he now finds himself on the precipice of rewriting a record currently held by Prince Naruhiko Higashikuni, Japan’s post-war prime minister who resigned after 54 days in 1945, having rolled the dice on a general election one year ahead of schedule.

       If that ends up being the case, Mr Ishiba and his aides would appear to have misread public anger over a political slush fund scandal, in which dozens of LDP lawmakers kept fund-raising income off the books.

       His Cabinet approval was between 28 and 41 per cent, according to various media surveys last week, which was generally lower than around the time he became Prime Minister.

       Media polls, including by the centre-right Yomiuri Shimbun, have also suggested that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito might struggle to win a simple majority of 233 seats in the 465-seat Lower House. Mr Ishiba has set 233 seats as his baseline target, a modest goal given that the ruling bloc had held 279 seats in the dissolved chamber.

       Not that the public’s anger could be sensed in Mr Ishiba’s penultimate campaign rally appearance on Oct 26, when he stumped for former Olympic minister Tamayo Marukawa at a sardine-packed plaza in front of Ebisu Station in Tokyo.

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       Ms Marukawa is a veteran Upper House lawmaker who is contesting a Lower House seat for the first time. But polls show that she is in danger of losing in the Tokyo No. 7 district, which encompasses Tokyo’s Minato and Shibuya wards.

       She was culpable for keeping 8.2 million yen (S$71,000) off the books and had frequently, over 12 days of campaigning, shed tears in regret and apology as bigwigs like Mrs Akie Abe, the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s widow, turned up to campaign for her.

       But the question is whether Mr Ishiba and Ms Marukawa were preaching to the choir at the Oct 26 rally where many in the crowd looked to be LDP supporters.

       Mr Ishiba did not mention the slush fund scandal. Instead he spoke extensively about Japan’s economic and population decline. He said that Ms Marukawa, a mother of a 12-year-old boy, was best poised to bring different perspectives into policymaking.

       “Japan used to be the world’s most competitive country, but it has now fallen to 38th in terms of international competitiveness,” Mr Ishiba said, referring to the International Institute for Management Development’s annual World Competitiveness Ranking.

       “Japan once accounted for 20 per cent of the global economy, but now constitutes only 4 per cent,” he added, exhorting voters to place their trust in the LDP’s leadership experience for a brighter future.

       This line of argument, however, cut no ice with Mr Ryo Sugino, 32, who briefly stopped to listen to the rally on his way home.

       The human resources executive said that the LDP had led, for the most part, over the last 30 years during which Japan’s economy stagnated.

       “I can’t feel confident entrusting Japan’s economic future to the LDP. But neither do I feel confident about an opposition that has only been criticising the government without offering concrete policy ideas,” said the undecided voter, who added that he felt “resigned (about) and not surprised” by the slush fund scandal.

       Mr Ishiba sought to draw a line in the sand by withdrawing party endorsements from 12 lawmakers deemed as the most culpable in the scandal, including former education minister Koichi Hagiuda, who is contesting to retain his Tokyo No. 24 district seat as an independent.

       But the LDP had reportedly transferred 20 million yen stealthily into the bank accounts of the campaign branches of each of these unendorsed candidates, ostensibly for their “promotion of party policy measures”, resulting in accusations that the party was unrepentant.

       Candidates who were officially endorsed also received the same sum of money.

       This scoop by the niche Shimbun Akahata, run by the opposition Japan Communist Party, was given traction by mainstream outlets, stoking public anger as Mr Ishiba lambasted the reports as “biased”.

       Mr Hagiuda, who was not endorsed by the LDP after keeping 27.3 million yen off the books over five years, returned the transferred sum to the party, describing the money as an “unwanted favour”.

       Meanwhile, another 34 lawmakers, including Ms Marukawa, are being endorsed by the LDP but kept off proportional representation lists that serve as a “backdoor” route into Parliament if they fail to be elected in the first-past-the-post system.

       A total of 1,344 candidates are in the running for 465 seats in the Lower House election.

       Japanese citizens aged 18 and older can cast two ballots: one for their preferred candidate in their constituency, with Japan divided into 289 single-member districts, and another for their preferred party, with Japan split into 11 proportional representation blocs.

       Some 16.4 million voters have cast their ballots in early voting as at Oct 25, or 15.77 per cent of eligible voters. Voting ends at 8pm (7pm Singapore time) on Oct 27, with results due by early on Oct 28.

       Former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, who now leads the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), told a rally in Shibuya on Oct 26: “We must put an end to politics in which the public are made to look like fools. The LDP shows no signs of remorse, so it is up to us to make them assume responsibility.”

       The momentum appears to be with the CDP to stop the LDP-Komeito coalition from winning a majority, though the LDP may keep its status as the largest party in Parliament.

       This outcome would nonetheless result in political upheaval unseen since the LDP was ousted from power in 2009 by the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan.

       If the LDP-Komeito bloc wins a majority, even by the skin of its teeth, the result could cut Mr Ishiba some slack as it can be said to reflect the public’s mandate.

       But if the bloc does not cross that line, Mr Ishiba would have to bring back into the fold independent lawmakers, or engage in uncomfortable power-sharing arrangements with other conservative opposition parties, such as the ascendant Democratic Party for the People or the Japan Innovation Party (better known as the Nippon Ishin no Kai).

       This would weaken Mr Ishiba’s standing within the LDP, complicate efforts to pass laws, and put him under pressure to resign, given that he is on shaky political ground having been elected under fractious circumstances in September.

       Dr Izuru Makihara, a political watcher at The University of Tokyo, said the party’s showing on Oct 27 will be one factor in determining Mr Ishiba’s reign as Prime Minister. “The current LDP is like a snake that has had its head cut off and is flailing about,” he added.