This electron microscope photo provided by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases shows the coronavirus isolated at the facility. (Photo Courtesy of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases)

       TOKYO -- A week after the coronavirus state of emergency was lifted on June 21 for nine prefectures in Japan, except for the southernmost prefecture of Okinawa, signs of a rebound in infections have already been seen in the country's capital region.

       The ratio of people infected with the Delta variant -- said to be highly contagious -- is rising, sparking expert fears of a "fifth wave" of infections.

       Seven among nine prefectures where the state of emergency was lifted on June 21 shifted into a quasi-state of emergency. However, as the number of new infections in the three prefectures of Tokyo, Saitama and Chiba in the capital region are increasing, it is difficult to lift the quasi-state of emergency.

       A state of emergency is currently in effect for Okinawa Prefecture, and the quasi-state of emergency is in place in a total of 10 prefectures -- Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa in addition to the seven prefectures of Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka.

       According to documents released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on June 25, the number of new infection cases per 100,000 people in the most recent week was 22.1 in Tokyo, which is at a level of "Stage 3," the second most severe stage on the national government's four-point scale, meaning a surge in infections. Compared to the previous week, the figures in the three prefectures of Tokyo, Saitama and Chiba in the capital region grew slightly by 9 to 15%. In contrast, new infections in Osaka Prefecture saw a slight decrease, to 0.94 times the previous level, while the figures fell to 0.61 times the prior figure in Kyoto Prefecture, and 0.63 times in Hyogo Prefecture.

       Occupancy rates for hospital beds are on a downward trend but remain high. The rate in Okinawa Prefecture stood at 71%, which is classified at Stage 4 (50% or more), indicating an "infection explosion." The hospital bed occupancy rates in 13 prefectures, including Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto and Hiroshima, were at Stage 3 (20% or above).

       Furthermore, in Tokyo, the highly infectious Delta variant is replacing the conventional strain. According to documents presented at a monitoring meeting of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the ratio of the Delta variant among coronavirus infections was estimated at 8.2% from the results of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for variants conducted during the week of June 14 to 20, 5 percentage points higher than in the previous week. In Osaka Prefecture, a total of 21 cases of the Delta variant had been confirmed as of June 25. Broken down by the day of onset, excluding one case with no symptoms, two cases were detected in April, eight cases in May, and 10 cases in June, according to the Osaka Prefectural Government.

       Kindai University professor Koichiro Yoshida, who specializes in infectious diseases, thinks that the current situation in Tokyo is similar to that in Osaka Prefecture before the "fourth wave." Even though virus variants had emerged and the number of infections had bottomed out in Osaka Prefecture, the state of emergency was lifted in March. However, more than 1,000 new infections were then reported on consecutive days in April.

       "We shouldn't be saying there are 'signs' of a rebound," Yoshida cautioned. "A fifth wave will come unless measures to stop the flow of people are taken quickly."

       (Japanese original by Yuki Nakagawa, Lifestyle and Medical News Department)

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