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What Taiwan’s Election Could Mean for the Island and the World
The vote for a new president could reshape the complicated, risky balance between Taiwan, China and the United States.
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A rally in Tainan, Taiwan, for the Nationalist Party’s presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih. The presidential race on Saturday is expected to be close. Credit...Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
By Amy Chang Chien, John Liu, Chris Buckley and Damien Cave
Reporting from Taipei, Taiwan
Jan. 12, 2024, 12:01 a.m. ET
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Taiwan will choose a new president on Saturday, bringing new leadership to volatile relations with an increasingly belligerent Beijing. The outcome could raise or lower the risks of a crisis, giving China a potential transition point to revive engagement, or to increase the military threats that could ultimately draw the United States into a war.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has asserted Beijing’s claim over the self-governed island of 23 million people by sending warplanes and ships to the skies and waters around Taiwan almost daily. Washington, while maintaining “strategic ambiguity” over its plans, has helped to bolster the island’s military, and President Biden has signaled that the United States would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
The election’s main contest, results of which are expected by Saturday night, pits the governing Democratic Progressive Party, or D.P.P., which has promoted Taiwan’s separate identity, against the opposition Nationalist Party, which favors a more conciliatory approach to China. Chinese leaders have denounced the D.P.P. as separatists and suggested that a vote for four more years under that party would amount to choosing war over peace.
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A Chinese naval vessel in waters near Taiwan last year. As always, China looms over Taiwan’s election. Credit...Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
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Amy Chang Chien covers news in mainland China and Taiwan. She is based in Taipei. More about Amy Chang Chien
John Liu covers China and technology for The Times, focusing primarily on the interplay between politics and technology supply chains. He is based in Seoul. More about John Liu
Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues. More about Chris Buckley
Damien Cave is an international correspondent for The Times, covering the Indo-Pacific region. He is based in Sydney, Australia. More about Damien Cave
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