Xi Jinping greets President Muizzu on his state visit to China (Image: President's Office, Republic of Maldives )
China is losing its battle for the Maldives despite a pro-Beijing premier, analysts predicted last night.
As global powers jostle for influence in the Indo-Pacific region the paradise archipelago, famed for its attraction as a tourist destination, has become the centre of an unlikely tug-of-war between the two powerhouses of China and India.
While, traditionally, India has enjoyed a very close relationship with the Indian Ocean islands, the election last year of pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu resulted in a pivot to Beijing.
In October, the Sunday Express shared warnings that Muizzu’s first action - to expel Indian troops - could pave the way for another Chinese military installation on India’s doorstep.
In 2020 satellite images showed evidence of mass construction on the island of Feydhoo Finolhu, which had been leased by China until 2026 for $4m by pro-China president Abdulla Yameen four years previously,
Significantly, the island has also been expanded from 38,000 sq. metres to measure 100,000 sq meters in size, in a move which echoed China’s actions on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
But the immediate threat has now been averted, with Muizzu agreeing to reinstall the expelled Indian troops by May.
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Maizzu won 54 percent of the popular vote after campaigning on an “India Out” platform, but remains a minority leader beholden on cross party cooperation. And an initial honeymoon period for the minority leader has been replaced by overt pressures from all sides of Maldives' political spectrum.
A rift with erstwhile ally and former president Abdulla Yameen is growing over claims that the latter was sidelined by Maizzu's charge for power.
In the meantime, Parliamentary minority leader Ali Azim has called for a vote of no confidence amid a row over derogatory remarks against Indian PM Narendra Modi.
The state of political tension culminated in a parliamentary showdown last month.
Chaos erupted as members of the government's Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and People's National Congress (PNC) disrupted proceedings to ratify members of Muizzu's cabinet.
It led to physical brawl between Members of Parliament (MPs) Isa from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Abdullah Shaheem Abdul Hakeem from the PNC.
Dramatic visuals circulating on social media depicted the scuffle, with one video showing Shaheem gripping Isa's leg, causing both to fall, while another viral clip showed Isa kicking Shaheem's neck and pulling his hair.
President Muizzu enjoyed a state visit to China , but has yet to visit India (Image: Getty)
While Muizzu has made a point of making a state visit to Beijing, but has yet to visit India.
His ambitions to consolidate economic ties with Beijing will mean seeking new Chinese investment and may even herald fresh infrastructure projects under China’s fiscally-punitive BRI scheme.
Previous examples include the Sinamalé Bridge, the first to link the islands of Malé, Hulhulé and Hulhumalé. The bridge was popular because it allowed direct road access to the country’s airport for the first time.
The cost of this and other projects have left the Maldives' 520,000 inhabitants more than ￡3bn in debt to China and saddled with punitive interest repayments.
None of this has deterred New Delhi, however, as it continues to invest in the Maldives.
According to newly-revealed figures, India has spent nearly 7.71 billion rupees (￡74 million), or almost twice its budgeted 4 billion rupees on projects in the Maldives during the last fiscal year.
Despite the Muizzu roadblock, "development cooperation has not changed or stopped," said an Indian official, who added that New Delhi had a two-fold engagement strategy for Malé.
Modi's choice of Lakshadweep for his holidays led to an Indian boycott of Maldives (Image: Office of Narendra Modi)
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Privately, India's foreign service remains optimistic over the Maldives' future.
Speaking last night regional expert Sachin Nandha, of the International Centre for Sustainability think tank, said: “I know from government sources that India believes this is a temporary road bump.
"It sees the bluster in Muizzu's leadership - which may be using China to get more from out of India - but knows that connections between both countries are fundamentally deep, and will take a long time to erode.
“So New Delhi will keep investing."
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In the meantime, Narendra Modi fired a warning shot of his own.
Knowing the Maldives relies heavily on Indian tourism to the tune if ￡300m a year, the populist Indian PM chose the tiny Indian islands of Lakshadweep - which resemble the Maldives - for his annual holidays.
"This has essentially led to an Indian boycott of the Maldives," said Sachin Nandha. "It acted as a reminder that India's economic tap can be turned off as easily as it can be turned on."
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