Ukraine will not be a unitary state following the developments of last winter, spring and summer, says a report by the Valdai Club experts, which has been distributed on the sidelines of the 11th annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club that is underway in Sochi.

       A national reconciliation scenario was only possible before the May 2 tragedy in Odessa and the May 11 referendums on the status of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and the launch of military operations there,” says a report based on the materials provided by Ukrainian and Russian experts and two rounds of discussions with European and US experts.

       The key elements that could make this scenario possible are lacking: goodwill, concrete action plans, reconciliation as a common overall goal, as well as mutual agreement from a group of respected intermediaries acting as the guarantors of a compromise solution.

       According to experts, apart from the “inertia scenario,” which is the current situation, the events in Ukraine could take one of the following paths: a new aggravation in southeastern Ukraine; dissolution of Ukraine; and federalization or the Dayton formula.

       The Valdai experts believe that the best scenario would be based on a package of measures, including Kiev’s agreement to end the aggression against the southeastern regions, the consolidation of external parties (Russia, the EU and the United States), and talks between Kiev and the other regions in the country, including the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, on changing the country’s system of government to give more rights to the regions if they remain within the existing state border.

       However, there is little chance that this scenario will be implemented, the authors of the report say. Its implementation will be hindered by internal forces (primarily, radical nationalists) and external parties (primarily, the United States).

       The Valdai experts believe that Kiev will either continue to use military force to settle the problem in its southeastern regions, or will enact an inertia scenario, simulating attempts to find a compromise. Unfortunately, both are dead-end scenarios for Ukraine’s long-term interests.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.