Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane once again before it makes landfall Wednesday morning north of Tampa, the National Hurricane Center said. Additionally, the National Weather Service issued a tornado watch extending from Tuesday afternoon and into the night for most of the peninsula.
The tornado watch covers all of South Florida as well as Osceola and Polk counties in Central Florida until 11 p.m.
Already the NWS issued a tornado warning for LaBelle in Hendry County on Tuesday afternoon after radar indicated a likely tornado.
In its 5 p.m. update, the NHC said the system was located 155 miles south-southwest of Tampa moving north at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and tropical-storm-force winds extending out 90 miles from its center. One offshore buoy near Naples recently measured a gust of 78 mph.
The forecast has the center of the storm parked about 20 miles west of Tampa Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds and gusts up to 90 mph by 2 a.m. Wednesday.
The likelihood of the system regaining hurricane strength prompted the hurricane center to issue a Hurricane Warning from Egmont Key at the mouth of Tampa Bay to the Steinhatchee River in Florida’s Big Bend area on Tuesday afternoon. Lake County remains under an inland Tropical Storm Watch while Sumter and Marion counties are under a Tropical Storm Warning.
“Regardless of whether it stays a strong tropical storm or becomes a hurricane, the impacts are going to remain the same for most of east-central Florida,” said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Chris Gilson. “With that tornado risk for all of east-central Florida, whether you’re on the east coast, the west coast, tornado risk is going to be there for everyone. Also looking at that heavy rain risk that could lead to some localized flooding.”
Gilson said to expect between 2-4 inches along the I-4 corridor with 3-5 inches or more in Lake, Sumter and Marion counties.
“We’re really looking at most of the impact from about sunset this evening to sunrise tomorrow,” Gilson said. “It looks like Elsa is going to make landfall potentially in the Nature Coast area between about 6 and 9 o’clock in the morning. So we’re going to see the greatest impacts for the heaviest downpours, that tornado risk will be the highest tonight into early Wednesday — the first half of Wednesday.”
The hurricane season’s fifth named storm has slowed its forward progress as it rides Florida’s west coast Tuesday. Elsa is projected to make landfall near the Tampa area at around 8 a.m. Wednesday. As of now, Elsa is passing west and slightly north of Central Florida; however, an Inland Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Lake, Sumter and Marion counties, with the National Weather Service forecasting 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 40 mph. Gusts up to 60 mph could occur in some squalls.
Power outages along Florida’s west coast and the Keys began to surge Tuesday afternoon. By 4 p.m., more than 12,500 residences were without power in Florida, according to poweroutage.us. More than 4,000 were customers of the Withlacoochee River Electric Coop, more than 3,600 from Duke Energy in the Tampa area, more than 1,800 with Tampa Electric and nearly 1,300 from Florida Power & Light which covers the Florida Keys.
Elsa was the first hurricane of the season as it briefly gained the strength of a Category 1 storm last week while in the Caribbean. The storm lost power over the weekend after interacting with multiple land masses. Meteorologists expect Elsa to regain its hurricane status within the next 12 hours.
Tropical Storm Elsa cone of uncertainty as of 5 p.m. Tuesday, July 6, 2021. (National Hurricane Center)
A United States Air Force reconnaissance mission detected winds at 70 mph; however, the aircraft didn’t survey the northeastern part of Elsa.
“So it is possible that higher winds exist,” the NHC said. “Although the environment is not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.”
While Elsa is expected to gain strength prior to landfall, it should begin weakening Wednesday once its eye is over Florida.
During a Tuesday morning press conference, Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents to make preparations as Elsa bears down on the west. The governor did not anticipate any wide spread evacuation, but did acknowledge that northern areas of Florida were as risk to flash flooding after receiving heavy rainfall days over the weekend and last week.
“It’s important that Floridians don’t focus on the cone,” DeSantis said. “Impacts are expected well outside that area, and if you look at how the storm is, it’s incredibly lopsided to the east.”
DeSantis on Monday expanded an existing state of emergency to cover a dozen counties that span an area of Florida where Elsa is expected to make a swift passage on Wednesday.
About 6,000 utility workers and 200 Florida National Guardsmen are on standby for quick deployment should they be needed, said Florida Division of Emergency Management director Kevin Guthrie during Tuesday’s press conference. The majority of the workers and guardsmen are stationed in Orlando pushing out commodities in warehouses, Guthrie said.
In Orlando, a Flood Watch was issued until 4 p.m. Wednesday and includes Inland Volusia, Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole and Southern Lake counties, the NWS said. The weather service also predicted a danger of tornadoes throughout the Central Florida region.
“Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant impacts across east central Florida, particularly Lake County and areas near the Kissimmee River,” the NWS said.
After the 5 p.m. update, the NWS removed the Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven Mile Bridge.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas and for Florida’s west coast from Flamingo in the Everglades northward to south of Egmont Key, and then farther north on the west coast from north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River. The NHC also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound.
A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Florida’s west coast from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay.
Over the next 36 hours, Elsa is projected to pickup strength on its northern journey with maximum sustained winds estimated to grow to 70 mph, but forecasters predict that to be the beginning of the end of Elsa’s growth. Elsa is predicted to begin diminishing in strength by Thursday as it rides the U.S. East Coast.
Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Maureen McCann noted that even though most of Central Florida is outside of Elsa’s projected path, the region could still feel impact from the storm.
“Remember that impacts can happen outside the cone of uncertainty,” she said. “With Central Florida being on the right side of the storm, we will see batches of rain, some gusty squalls and even some isolated tornadoes with some of the more intense pockets of rain.”
Lake, Sumter and Marion counties still have the most probability of feeling tropical-storm-force winds.
Rain of 3-5 inches with localized totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday was expected in the Keys, southwest Florida and the Panhandle, NHC forecasters said. The rest of the state could experience 2-4 inches and up to 6 inches in some localized areas.
“Much of north and central Florida have experienced above normal rainfall over the past two weeks, which will increase the likelihood of flash flooding conditions with the anticipated heavy rain,” DeSantis said.
The was no change to Elsa’s project path, which has it moving parallel to Florida’s west coast before making landfall north of Tampa in the Big Bend area or the Panhandle on Wednesday.
Cuban officials evacuated 180,000 people against the possibility of heavy flooding from a storm that already battered several Caribbean islands, killing at least three people. But Elsa spent Sunday and much of Monday sweeping parallel to Cuba’s southern coast, sparing most of the island from significant effects.
It made landfall in Cuba near Cienega de Zapata, a natural park with few inhabitants, and crossed the island just east of Havana. Tuesday’s rainfall across parts of Cuba was expected to reach 10 inches with isolated maximums of 15 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and mudslides. But there were no early reports of serious damage on the island.
“The wind is blowing hard and there is a lot of rain. Some water is getting under the door of my house. In the yard the level is high, but it did not get into the house,” Lázaro Ramón Sosa, a craftsman and photographer who lives in the town of Cienega de Zapata, told The Associated Press by telephone.
Sosa said he saw some avocado trees fall nearby.
Tropical storm conditions were continuing over central and western Cuba Tuesday morning, even as the storm reached Florida.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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