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The Taliban insists it has changed. Afghanistan’s future hinges on whether that’s true.
2021-08-18 00:00:00.0     华盛顿邮报-世界     原网页

       

       KABUL — For years, the man who spoke for the Taliban hid his face from the world.

       As the voice of insurgents seeking to overthrow the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan, Zabiullah Mujahid was an outlaw and a target. In media appearances, his face was covered or blurred.

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       But that changed in dramatic fashion Tuesday when Mujahid spoke openly and extensively at a news conference in Kabul. His group, he said, had changed, too.

       As Afghanistan’s once-again rulers, the Taliban would refrain from retributory violence and respect women’s rights — at least so far as Islam allows. It would forgive domestic rivals and seek good relations with longtime foreign enemies. It would, in short, be entirely different from the way the group behaved during its last run in power, a calamitous five years that left the country a ruined pariah.

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       “Nobody,” he insisted, “will be harmed in Afghanistan.”

       Those gauzy assurances were consistent with how the Taliban has projected itself since its fighters overran the capital Sunday, with leaders offering conciliation and rifle-toting fighters on Kabul’s streets largely showing restraint.

       But whether it bears any relation to how the Taliban will ultimately govern remains the biggest unknown as Afghanistan confronts its next chapter amid four decades of nearly continuous conflict. The question is made more complicated by the fractious nature of the group and its opaque decision-making style.

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       “Will the real Taliban please stand up?” said Saad Mohseni, whose company owns Tolo TV, Afghanistan’s dominant broadcaster. “We just don’t know which Taliban are going to prevail.”

       Even as Mujahid spoke to media, there was ample evidence of Afghans betting that the kinder, gentler version of the Taliban being offered in public won’t last. Sooner or later, they believe, the mask will slip, revealing the movement’s cruel true face.

       In and around Kabul’s international airport on Tuesday, thousands of people continued to clamor for a flight out of the country, convinced that life under the Taliban will return the intolerable oppression of its rule before the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

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       “It is simply a liberal fantasy that somebody who is willing to fight and die for a belief system will modify that belief system just to get recognition from unbelievers,” said a former Pakistan ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, who is now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

       “They keep saying it will not be as harsh as the last time, which means they won’t lash everyone on the first day,” Haqqani said. “But the rules are the same.”

       The Biden administration — focused on getting U.S. citizens and Afghan allies out of the country — has taken a cautious public approach, saying it will reserve judgment on the Taliban until it sees more.

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       “We are going to look for their actions rather than listen to their words,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters.

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       Behind the scenes, officials say they are genuinely unsure about the Taliban’s softened rhetoric.

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       The pessimistic view, said one U.S. official after watching Tuesday’s news conference, is that “this might all be part of a calculation for legitimacy in the short term.”

       The optimistic view is that “maybe it’s an indicator that it’s not your father’s Taliban,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter. “And they’ll be more inclusive and protect rights.”

       Price on Monday did not rule out U.S. recognition of a Taliban government, but listed a number of conditions, including protection of women’s rights and not harboring terrorists.

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       Recognition is among the few levers of influence that remain for Washington.

       The last time the Taliban held power — from 1996 to 2001 — only a handful of countries offered recognition, leaving Afghanistan isolated and, even by its own modest standards, poor.

       The group may be interested in avoiding that fate this time around.

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       “They’re a lot more cognizant of what it means to be in charge of a state,” said Mohseni. “They’ve had 20 years to watch others do it.”

       Mohseni said he saw the group’s willingness to give an interview to a female journalist at Tolo, and to answer hard-hitting questions from female reporters at the Tuesday news conference, as important symbols of a new approach.

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       “I’d like to be cautiously optimistic,” he said. “It’s easy [for the West] to say ‘We’re not going to talk to you.’ But engaging them is going to be better for the 35 million Afghans.”

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       Just who to engage, however, remains unclear. The primary conduit between the group and Western powers has been a cadre of Taliban leaders in Doha, Qatar. The most prominent of them, Abdul Ghani Baradar, flew back to Afghanistan on Tuesday, with the expectation that he will form a government in the coming days.

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       But Haqqani and other analysts say the real power lies not with the group’s political leadership, but with its religious authorities, especially supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada.

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       Akhundzada and other Taliban leaders have long been rumored to live in Quetta, Pakistan, though the Pakistani government denies it. The group also has a powerful military wing, with commanders on either side of the Afghan-Pakistani border.

       The many faces of the Taliban have led to profound confusion not only in Western capitals, but also in Kabul this week. Although the Taliban has been a force in Afghanistan for a quarter-century, its strength has been rooted in the country’s rural areas, especially in the south.

       For most people in the capital, the group had been an alien presence — until its fighters rolled in with hardly a shot fired.

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       In the Kote Sangi neighborhood of western Kabul, the long-haired, long-bearded militants arrived on motorbike to find a city virtually unrecognizable compared to the one that an earlier generation of Taliban had fled in late 2001.

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       As the fighters performed victory laps, crowds of onlookers formed, first tentatively and then in larger numbers. Ultimately, they offered cheers and handshakes — though it was unclear whether out of admiration or fear.

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       “Can I take a selfie,” one young man asked.

       “No,” came the fighter’s curt reply. But others indulged.

       The crowd was dominated by men, with nearly all the women — normally a fixture of public transportation, streets and shopping malls — having gone home earlier in the day as news of the Taliban’s arrival circulated.

       “Everyone knows that the Taliban will violate rights of people, including women, children and ethnic groups,” said Mohammad Aref Azizi, 32. “But it is far more important to end the war.

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       For 55-year old Gul Khan, a neighborhood shopkeeper, the shift in power was familiar: He has seen successive governments toppled violently over the past 40 years. Now, he suggested, there may be relief from that cycle.

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       “I am happy to see the Taliban are back,” he said. “They are my Muslim brothers.”

       But where that brotherhood leaves women remains unknown.

       Marzia Nazari, 23 and dressed in tight pantaloons that would have earned her violent punishment from the original Taliban government, sped up her pace as she walked near the circling fighters.

       “I am scared,” said Nazari, who had collected her visa for Iran and intended to flee the country. “I will never come back because of the Taliban.”

       Women are not the only ones who believe they have much to fear. Ethnic minorities have long been targeted by the Taliban for violence. So have human rights advocates and others whose views are at odds with the group’s austere dogma.

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       Asif Ashna, a former government spokesperson, said there was “slight optimism” that the Taliban will, as it has claimed, not carry out revenge attacks against opponents.

       “But young Afghan liberals are in extreme danger,” he said.

       In Kabul and other urban areas, a generation of young Afghans has grown accustomed to living with relatively liberal values, including freedom of speech and gender equality. Now they must reckon with the possibility that the new government will seek to erase that — and more.

       Among the crowd watching the triumphant Taliban on Sunday, a young boy emerged.

       “Is he a Taliban fighter?” asked the boy, who was attired in jeans and a T-shirt.

       The boy had heard about the Taliban on the news, and had witnessed their awful work in the aftermath of suicide bombings. He had never seen a militant in the flesh, but he knew instantly what he must do.

       “I have to go,” he said, “and change my clothes.”

       Witte reported from Washington. Karen DeYoung in Washington contributed to this report.

       


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关键词: Zabiullah Mujahid     Taliban     Afghanistan     government     Advertisement     continues     Kabul     fighters    
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