OPINION
Reform UK's star continues to rise — but it could all go horribly wrong. (Image: PA Wire)
Nigel Farage's star continues to rise with new opinion polls confirming a recent Sky/YouGov poll which had Reform UK ahead of the Tories and Labour.
A Techne UK poll for the Independent found that one third of Tory voters are switching to Reform, with Reform now joint top with Labour on 25% versus 23% for the Conservatives.
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Another poll - this time by FindOutNow - had Reform on 29%, versus 25% for Labour and a mere 18% for the Tories.
This comes as a split appeared to emerge in Tory ranks, with former leadership contender Robert Jenrick refusing to rule out a deal with Reform, something a spokesperson for under-fire leader, Kemi Badenoch, did.
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Perhaps Farage's greatest risk now is not the cancelling of local elections — this may hurt Reform's local chances but gives Farage a chance to grab the limelight and shine a light on Labour failings — but the risk that Badenoch is imminently dumped as party leader.
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Not that Jenrick and co look like great alternatives but, right now, anything might be better than this.
In the meantime, Reform UK is surging and — on YouGov numbers at least — would be the largest party in the Commons, likely governing as the senior partner in coalition with the Conservatives.
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But 2029 - the almost certain time of the next election — is a long way from now, and much could change.
Badenoch could be gone, the Tories could turn the tide, and even Labour could make a decent go of it. Heck, World War 3 could be underway.
But, for now at least, Reform is rising, and its surge is going nowhere.