Brexit could lead to a significant shortage of potatoes for Irish consumers by 2023, experts have warned.
Prior to the UK’s departure from the EU, the majority of potato seed used by Irish farmers for varieties such as Kerr Pinks, Golden Wonders and British Queens had been imported from Scotland.
But under post-Brexit rules and following the UK’s departure from the single market, exports of seed potatoes – those not consumed but used to plant other potatoes – from Scotland to Ireland are no longer allowed.
While many in Ireland are hopeful that the changes will spark a revival of home-grown Irish seed potatoes, experts warned this week that there is likely to be some disruption in the years ahead.
“It’s a bit of a conundrum to be honest; we’ve limited seed crops growing here and UK potato seed imports aren’t approved,” Shay Phelan, a potato specialist at Ireland’s Agriculture and Food Development Authority, told the Irish Times.
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“A derogation was sought to import seed but it wasn’t successful and that will have a big impact on some farmers. If we got access to a derogation for seed growers we could fill the gaps but even that would take a year or two.”
Most growers should have enough seed for this year following a strong crop yield, meaning that consumers are unlikely to see a significant impact until 2023, Mr Shay said.
John Carroll, a grower in County Louth, warned that “it will be a big issue unless something is done with the seed industry”, telling the paper: “We don’t save seed because it’s completely different, that’s why there’s so few seed growers in Ireland because it’s hard to get right.”
Ireland’s agriculture minister Charlie McConalogue has pledged to help revive Ireland’s own seed potato industry, with these efforts heavily reliant on production at the research farm, Tops Farm. But Mr Carroll warned it will take several years to fill the gap left by Brexit.
“We need to get foundation stock and I don’t know when Tops Farm will have tonnes of seed to give out and sell. This thing takes years to get right,” he said.
Similarly, the Irish Farmers Association’s (IFA) former national potato chairman Thomas McKeown told the Irish Times that Brexit provides “a great opportunity here for seed growers, but it will take about three years and it’s going to be a bit of a pain”, adding: “There’s no quick fix.”
While exports of seed potatoes from Great Britain to Northern Ireland have also been banned, the DUP has previously cited potatoes as a food whose strong domestic production means it should be safe from shortages.
Meanwhile, the National Farmers Union Scotland (NFUS) warned that “the loss of the European market was significant” north of the border.
The immediate seed potato export ban caused by Brexit “disproportionately affected Scotland”, because a significant portion of Scottish potatoes are grown as seed potatoes and are exported worldwide,” NFUS spokesperson Bob Carruth told The Independent.
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While he said the “door isn’t completely closed” to a deal allowing trade to resume, Mr Carruth said: “There aren’t too many major casualties of the Brexit deal, but seed potatoes is undoubtedly one of them because there’s no trade.
“So it’s not even an issue with regards to paperwork or transport times, there is no opportunity to export seed potatoes, so that’s certainly something we continue to try and work on at a European level.”
Prior to Brexit, Britain exported around 30,000 tonnes of seed potatoes – worth ￡13.5m – to mainland Europe each year, the majority of which were high-health stocks grown in Scotland, according to NFUS.
Mr Carruth said that most farmers who grow seed potatoes will have other elements to their business, potentially growing different crops and keeping livestock.
“Very few of them will only grow seed potatoes, so I haven’t heard of any Scottish potato growers who have gone out of business because of the loss of the European market,” he said.
But he warned that, “like all Scottish farmers”, potato growers will “be struggling to cope with the unprecedented increase in input prices”, with the cost of fertiliser having soared 300 per cent in 18 months and the price of plant protection products having doubled.
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Spiralling costs are also feared to have been hampering Ireland’s effort to revive its domestic potato seed industry, according to IFA potato committee chair Sean Ryan, who warned last month that less potatoes were likely planted as a result.
Speaking of the cost of refrigerating potatoes while they are harvested, he told Agriland: “One example is a farmer in Wexford, his costs for the cold room three years ago was €1,800 (￡1,532) for two months, this year it was €9,120. So there’s a serious cost increase there in keeping the potatoes ripe. The consumer doesn’t always realise that.”
But last week, Mr Ryan welcomed the Irish government’s announcement of a €3m support scheme for the seed potato sector – funded by the EU’s Brexit adjustment reserve fund – as a “positive first step”.