ZURICH - Winter is coming for Switzerland, and the land of snowy mountains and cheese has to make a decision on a controversial energy source.

       The leaders and people of the Alpine country – home to the world’s oldest operating nuclear power plant – have been going back and forth on how they feel about nuclear energy.

       After the Fukushima nuclear meltdown in 2011, the Swiss people in 2017 voted to phase out the nation’s existing nuclear reactors over time, never to build a new plant. One of its five reactors was switched off in 2019.

       But in August, the government made a sudden U-turn, proposing to overturn the ban on building nuclear plants – to meet its net-zero target and safeguard energy security amid geopolitical tensions. This proposal was a response to a citizen-initiated referendum that called for the country to lift the ban.

       Switzerland’s change of mind about nuclear energy is coming at a time when more countries are increasingly looking upon atomic energy favourably as they work towards net-zero carbon emissions.

       Switzerland’s electricity production is dominated by hydropower, at around 57 per cent of the mix in 2023. This was followed by nuclear energy at 32 per cent. Compared with the summer months, hydropower during the winter is weakened by up to 50 per cent because of reduced water flow in rivers and reservoirs. This is when the country mainly imports electricity – nuclear energy from France, and renewables and gas from Germany. During the winter, demand for electricity also rises because of the need for heating.

       “The energy supply situation in Europe has changed since 2022 with Russia’s attack on Ukraine and is less stable than before. If there were to be a power shortage in Europe, it might not be possible to import electricity from abroad in sufficient quantities at all times,” said Ms Marianne Zund, head of media and politics at the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

       “Switzerland is aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, which will require the complete replacement of fossil energies with climate-friendly electricity. Coupled with population growth, this will increase the demand for electricity,” she told The Straits Times.

       And it remains to be seen whether the development of renewable energies will be fast enough to cover the missing capacities from nuclear energy and the growing demand for electricity in time, said the Swiss government, the Federal Council, in a statement in August.

       The Federal Council’s proposal will be submitted for public consultation at the end of 2024. It will then be debated by Parliament and it is possible that there will be a referendum against it, said Ms Zund, referring to Switzerland’s direct democracy which allows citizens to propose new laws or challenge existing ones.

       One of the four existing nuclear reactors in Switzerland, Beznau-1 in the north, happens to be the world’s oldest at 55 years of age.

       With its lengthy nuclear history, the power source has been a contentious topic in Switzerland. Many do not know that the country’s first and only Swiss-made reactor – built in a rock cavern in Lucens – had a meltdown in 1969. While the radioactivity was fortunately contained in the underground cavern, the incident dashed the country’s dreams to build nuclear plants from scratch, and also stoked fears.

       In the 1970s, there were plans to have more reactors, said Ms Zund, but that was when Switzerland’s anti-nuclear movement gained ground, amid fears over safety and environmental impacts.

       After the Chernobyl nuclear meltdown in 1986, which sent radioactive fumes to Switzerland and other parts of Western Europe, plans to build more reactors were aborted.

       Fukushima then dimmed the last spark of hope to win public confidence over nuclear energy in Switzerland, she told ST in April.

       “Japan is far away, so it was not really the fear of having the cloud coming to us. But the people were still afraid. We got (phone calls): ‘I have ordered a Toyota and this comes by ship. What do I do now? Can I get it from my car dealer, or need I clean it first?’ Things like that.

       “(The Japanese) are very serious people. Very technology-oriented, fear for safety. (Like them), we like to be punctual. We like to keep things safe. And that this could happen in Japan was really scary for Swiss people,” she said.

       The country’s four existing reactors are allowed to stay on the grid as long as they are certified safe by the authorities every 10 years. The plan is to keep the plants running until they are 60, but they could push to 80 years or beyond.

       The business considerations for building plants and extending the lifespan of existing ones can also lengthen or break Switzerland’s nuclear era.

       “It’s very, very expensive to build new nuclear power plants right now. We saw this in the UK, France and also the US. The new built (ones) had really big delays and was much more expensive than planned,” said Ms Zund.

       France’s Flamanville-3 reactor, for example, started construction in 2007 with an expected start-up in 2013 and an estimated cost of €3.3 billion (S$4.7 billion). After 12 years of delays and cost increases, the reactor was authorised to start operations in May 2024, and the cost rose to €13.2 billion.

       Ms Zund added that there are currently no plans to introduce subsidies for nuclear energy in the future.

       In contrast, state subsidies of up to 60 per cent of investment costs are available in Switzerland for solar and wind projects, according to a 2024 report by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

       Reuters reported in September that bringing new nuclear power plants online in Switzerland could take decades due to lengthy licensing processes, as well as political and financial hurdles.

       When the Muhleberg nuclear power plant in the canton of Bern was taken off the grid in 2019, it was not only because of the move to phase out nuclear energy.

       The plant’s operator decided in 2013 that it was not financially viable to retrofit the plant after stricter safety standards were imposed post-Fukushima. Some 200 million Swiss francs (S$303 million) were spent to keep the plant running until 2019; not decommissioning it would have been costlier.

       For the 45-year-old Gosgen nuclear power plant in northern Switzerland, the investments – including for system replacements, among other things – needed to sustain operations to 60 years is around one billion Swiss francs.

       To keep the reactor safe for the next 15 years, the Gosgen plant has to undergo some upgrades including replacing the reactor’s protection system and modifying the emergency building.

       The plant’s operator, Alpiq Group, said it is evaluating what a service life of more than 60 years would mean in terms of safety and economics.

       “It is clear that operation for longer than 60 years will require further substantial investment – and is only possible in a stable regulatory framework,” said a spokesperson for Alpiq, referring to political and safety-related regulatory aspects.

       If there were politically motivated tightening of the rules for the decommissioning of plants and waste disposal funds, it could increase the costs for operators.

       Alpiq added: “A stable regulatory framework increases planning certainty, forms the basis for the economic continued operation and is an important signal for the (nuclear plant) as an attractive employer for highly qualified specialists.”

       In June, the Swiss people approved a law aimed to accelerate electricity production via renewables. Under the proposed law, there will be fewer strict planning conditions for wind power and large solar farms.

       Hydropower comprises the bulk of the country’s electricity production – the sharp, Alpine terrain and good amount of rainfall make Switzerland a hydropower haven.

       But solar power has become the fastest growing green energy source, especially after the Russia-Ukraine war.

       In addition to rooftop solar panels, the snowy Alps are also suitable to harness solar due to the higher altitude and sunlight’s reflection on the snow.

       In 2024, Alpine solar is expected to produce 6 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity, which is set to cover about 10 per cent of the country’s electricity needs.

       A study by the Swiss trade association for solar energy estimates that the country has the capacity to produce 67 TWh of electricity in a year if solar panels on buildings, roofs and facades are optimised.

       Ms Zund also noted how hydropower may weaken further by the end of the century because of climate change causing glacier retreats and droughts. So, ramping up on solar during the summer and wind in the winter is a good combination, she said.

       Those who criticise the proposed nuclear U-turn say it takes focus away from expanding further on renewables.

       Mr Rolf Hofstetter, 50, said nuclear energy reminds him of the Chernobyl disaster, when Swiss people were told to avoid game meat and mushrooms due to radioactivity scares.

       “I think we really should move away from nuclear power stations. I’m against new ones. I would like us to have more push on solar modules, if necessary, wind plants and other renewables. But not nuclear. Radioactivity is a dangerous thing that you can’t see,” said the resident of Stadel, which is north of Zurich.

       But Mr Franklin Servan-Schreiber, chief executive of Transmutex – a company that aims to build a power plant that runs on nuclear waste – said: “I believe it will be indispensable for Switzerland to overturn its ban... Let’s not forget that electricity is only approximately 25 per cent of the overall energy consumption. We still need to decarbonise heat production, mobility, and industrial processes. Where will we get carbon-free energy for the other 75 per cent?”