Rishi Sunak is bracing for a difficult weekend of local election results after latest polling put the Tories just three points ahead of Reform.
The Prime Minister is hoping to keep hold of key mayoralties as he faces losing hundreds of councillors.
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But the Conservative Party dropped to 18% in the polls, the lowest level since Theresa May’s 2019 European election wipeout.
Labour was riding high on 44%, Reform UK on 15% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%, according to the YouGov study.
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Only 43% of voters who backed the Tories at the general election say they will vote again and most worryingly for the party, only a third of over-65s intend to vote blue.
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Former PM Boris Johnson urged voters to get out and “vote Conservative” in a public show of support as speculation grows about what role he will play in the general election campaign.
Results are being dripped out over several days with the final declarations not expected until Sunday afternoon.
Across England and Wales 107 local authorities, 37 police and crime commissioners, 11 mayors are up for grabs along with the London Assembly and the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.
The outcome of the Tees Valley contest, where Conservative incumbent Ben Houchen is hoping for a third term, should be known at lunchtime on Friday.
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A loss would be a huge blow for the Prime Minister and would spark deep unrest in the party.
Key council results including Dudley, where Labour could become the largest party if the Conservatives are doing badly are also expected around the same time.
On Saturday counting begins for mayoral contests in Greater Manchester, London and the West Midlands, along with counts for the mayors of the Liverpool City Region, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire and Salford, plus eight more PCCs, three councils and the London Assembly.
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The Tories will be hoping Andy Street holds on as mayor of the West Midlands and helps offset losses elsewhere, including in the PCC elections where Labour could take back Cheshire.
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Salford is the 107th and final council due to declare on Sunday, along with the PCCs for Kent and Sussex plus any late results from the previous days.
Mr Sunak insisted only the Tories can “deliver a brighter future”.
He added: “The facts are clear, Conservatives keep council tax low and deliver better local services.”