March started off rather tamely in the Washington region, but the weather has since gone a bit haywire. After Sunday and Monday’s record 80-degree warmth and howling winds, temperatures plummeted 40 degrees Monday night. Next comes a cold rain Wednesday that may be mixed with snow in our colder areas.
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But Saturday may bring some of the craziest weather yet. A blockbuster storm is projected to form along an Arctic cold front charging through the area, bringing the potential for high winds, downpours, plunging temperatures and even the chance of snow.
A bomb cyclone could slam eastern U.S. on Saturday with wintry blast
Wednesday’s cold rain and possible wet snow
The chance of seeing snow on Wednesday has actually fallen since Monday, as model forecasts have trended a few degrees warmer and now lean toward more rain than snow. However, particularly in our colder north and northwest suburbs, some wet snow could be spotted early in the morning.
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The storm that will be responsible for these conditions is taking a favorable track for snow but, as there is no zone of high pressure to the north to supply cold air, temperatures are not expected to fall below freezing. Still, some of the hilly spots in Loudoun County, upper Montgomery County and northern Maryland could see rain mixed with snow or changing to wet snow at times early Wednesday.
While we can’t rule out some wet snow flakes mixing with the rain in the immediate area early Wednesday, this probably will be a mostly or all-rain event.
For areas to the north and west, Tuesday’s NAM model forecasts a deep layer of temperatures near freezing just above the ground early Wednesday morning. That could support a brief period of wet snow or a rain-snow mix.
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As is the case with many March storms, this will be an elevation-dependent snow opportunity. The higher your elevation, the better chance of seeing snow.
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In most places that see snow, it is unlikely to accumulate except perhaps for a bit of slush in grassy areas.
Generally, most places should expect a raw, cold rain, starting predawn Wednesday and lasting through the morning, with temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s. About half an inch of rain could fall. More spotty showers could linger into the afternoon, with highs near 40.
The Saturday storm
Weather models are advertising an unusually strong storm developing near the East Coast on Saturday, probably meeting the criteria of a “bomb cyclone” or storm that intensifies at breakneck speed.
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This is still five days away, so the details as to how this event may evolve in the D.C. area are fuzzy, but be aware of the possibility of disruptive weather Saturday,
The day may start off as mild and showery but, as the Arctic front comes in, it will turn rainy and windy. The rain could be heavy for a time, and we can’t rule out thunder. Temperatures could fall from near 50 into the 30s in just a few hours as the front crosses the area with winds gusting over 40 mph.
The models are suggesting that the surge of cold air could produce a period of snow as the storm deepens near the coast. The exact timing is hard to pin down, but perhaps some time between midmorning and midday.
Usually, for us to see snow on the backside of a cold front, the associated storm needs to intensify farther south than this one to tap moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. Storms that intensify where this one is expected to often draw in dry winds from the northwest after they pass north of our latitude.
This is a really dynamic system, however, so it’s hard to completely ignore the models that do forecast some snow across the area Saturday. The newest European model simulation (below) positions the storm far enough south to open up the possibility snow could accumulate.
In future updates, we’ll try to get a better handle on the snow potential and whether there could be accumulation.