When President Biden defended his foreign policy legacy this month, he said President-elect Donald J. Trump “should take full advantage of our diplomatic and geopolitical opportunities we’ve created,” in countering actions by Russia and China and handling developments in the Middle East.
He was hardly the first member of his administration to make the argument. In speeches and podcasts, and in a series of interviews with The New York Times over the past four weeks, many in his national security team made their arguments that they are leaving their successors with a world in which America’s adversaries are struggling and its allies have the upper hand.
Russia is isolated and bogged down in Ukraine. China is struggling through an economic and demographic downturn. Iran has never been weaker. And finally — after 15 months of intense diplomacy — an Israel-Hamas cease-fire has begun, hostages are set to be released and it is possible to imagine a reshaped Middle East.
It is a self-interested argument, of course, one that warns Mr. Trump, in essence, “Don’t blow it.” Those on Mr. Trump’s team take the opposite view. They say the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan emboldened Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, who saw weakness on display; that the Biden administration took its eye off the ball and Iran is now at the threshold of a nuclear weapon; and that however tough the administration was on China, it wasn’t tough enough.
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Putting aside that argument, there are certainly some diplomatic opportunities Mr. Trump can seize, though history and ominous recent warnings suggest that he may soften up his adversaries and his allies with threats of military action if he doesn’t get what he wants. (See: Iran, Greenland, Panama.)
Here is a scorecard to keep handy in the first few months.
In the fog of war, a potential Ukraine deal There is very little evidence that Mr. Putin is eager for a deal that would extract him from a war that has already cost Russia nearly 200,000 dead and more than half a million wounded. But the assumption is that he must be looking for an off-ramp. Since his televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Mr. Trump has been promising just that — a deal “in 24 hours,” or even one completed before he takes the oath of office.
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