WITH chances growing of a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan, the leadership of the ruling PTI has assigned to its governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the responsibility of reaching out to disgruntled party lawmakers. The objective is to remove their grievances and keep them from supporting the combined opposition’s move.

       On his return from Moscow, the prime minister is also likely to open communication channels with his estranged friend and party leader, Jahangir Khan Tareen. Although he has fallen out with his leader, Mr Tareen still has a significant hold over a number of national and provincial PTI legislators from Punjab and could prove to be the decisive factor in the success or otherwise of the opposition’s efforts to bring down Mr Khan.

       Officially, PTI leaders have dismissed the opposition’s efforts against him as a ‘storm in a teacup’. They have maintained that the government can easily defeat such a motion. Some claim that many opposition lawmakers have already promised to support the ruling party in case of a no-trust motion.

       It is difficult to say who — the PTI or the combined opposition — enjoys the support of the majority of the lawmakers in the National Assembly, but it is clear that Mr Khan is skating on thin ice at the moment. Chances of his government successfully bringing back dissenters at this stage do not appear too bright. Apparently, angry PTI lawmakers, who were lured away from the PML-N and PPP just before the 2018 elections with the help of the establishment, have already made their decision, otherwise the opposition parties would not look so confident. As far as PTI allies PML-Q and the MQM are concerned, they will not take too long to switch sides if they see the PM standing on weak ground.

       If the opposition is successful in its plans, the PTI would have no one but itself to blame. In its rule of three-and-a-half years so far, the government has made many mistakes, both political and economic. Rather than taking responsibility and improving his party’s performance, Mr Khan has blamed his government’s failings on the opposition. That’s not all. Close friends and colleagues have been thrown under the bus for the failures of the administration. Mr Tareen is one such example.

       There are others who feel hurt because they were denied political positions they were expecting before the party’s ascension to power or a share in development funds for their constituencies. Some have long been voicing their concerns over the political fallout of the rising cost of living due to elevated food prices and general inflation on the party’s chances in 2023. However, Mr Khan is not one to acknowledge danger even when it is clear and present. This approach has paid off in the past. But will it in the weeks and months to come?

       Published in Dawn, February 24th, 2022