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Rishi Sunak gets 'Rwanda poll bounce' relief just before make or break local elections
2024-04-26 00:00:00.0     每日快报-政治     原网页

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       Rishi Sunak's best week as Prime Minister this year has seen his party narrow the gap with Labour by two points.

       However, a leading pollster has said it is "too early" to say whether the Tories could enjoy a shock comeback with Labour still holding a commanding 21 point lead ahead of next week's crucial local elections.

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       But after a week where the Prime Minister calmed some of his critics in the Conservative Party by announcing that defence spending will go up to 2.5% of GDP on a trip to Poland and he finally got his Bill through Parliament to allow deportation flights to Rwanda of illegal migrants to go ahead, Mr Sunak appears to have seen a bounce in the polls.

       According to the Techne UK weekly tracker poll the Tories are on 23% (up 1), Labour on 44% (down 1) while, crucially for Mr Sunak, there has also been a slip in the Reform UK vote to 12% (also down 1).

       The Lib Dems remain in fourth place on popular support with 9% (unchanged) and the Greens are on 6% (up 1).

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       Labour are heading for a record majority (Image: ELECTORAL CALCULUS)

       While the poll is a repeat of the Techne survey a fortnight ago, there appears to be more grounds for optimism for the Tories in a week where the party's campaign machine has appeared to change gear including issuing a video showing the personal side of Sunak "the runner".

       However, Sir Keir Starmer's commanding lead for Labour still means he is on course for a general election victory with a majority of 300 while the Conservatives could get just half the number of seats they received in their worst ever election in 346 years with just 80, according to Electoral Calculus.

       The poll also gives little hope for the crucial local elections next week on May 2 when the Tories are at risk of losing 500 council seats while Tory West Midlands mayor Andy Street and Tees Valley mayor Ben Houchen are both struggling to hold on. Added to that another parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South is expected to be an easy win for Labour.

       Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: "This has been a very big political week no doubt for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Government. After quite literally months of parliamentary ‘ping pong’ between the Commons and Lords finally the Rwanda Bill has passed into law with the PM saying that flights to Rwanda should take off from July.

       "Our regular tracker poll this week no doubt takes note of strong public sentiment around the issue of illegal immigration with the Labour Party dropping 1 point in national vote share to 44% with conversely the Conservatives growing 1 point in national vote share to 23%.

       "As such the Labour lead now stands at 21 points, still a very dominant overall lead. The boost for the Conservatives this week is further helped with Reform U.K. dropping 1 point, now down to 12% of national vote share. Difficult to say if this means the Conservatives have ‘turned a corner’ but there is clearly a small boost on the back of the Rwanda Bill passing into law."

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       Cleverly has warned against the dangers of another leadership vote (Image: Getty)

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       The polling though will do little to appease Mr Sunak's critics within the party.

       One former minister said that the 52 letters needed to trigger a Tory leadership vote from MPs is now "very likely...if the results go as badly as expected."

       There is speculation that Mr Sunak may just resign rather than face a damaging confidence vote.

       Another senior backbencher added: "Things are very much in the balance with colleagues at the moment."

       Losses in the West Midlands and Tees Valley would "make a vote almost certain" according to another MP.

       "If Houchen is struggling after getting almost 80% last time then nobody is safe," noted on MP.

       "There are a lot of seats up for grabs in the West Midlands which will look difficult to defend if Andy Street is beaten," another added.

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       But Home Secretary James Cleverly today warned colleagues "who don't have a plan" not to force Mr Sunak out.

       The Techne poll shows that only 43% of Tory voters from 2019 still support the party with 17% going to Reform UK, 14% Labour, 11 not voting and 9% uncertain.

       Labour also leads in every socio-economic, age and education category.

       Related articles Angela Rayner proved at PMQs that ousting Boris was 'disaster', Tories warn Humza Yousaf plunged into biggest crisis yet as Green coalition collapses Humza Yousaf denies he is 'weak and hopeless' amid Green coalition crisis Lefties threaten boycott after Ryanair CEO offers to deport migrants to Rwanda Tories say Labour candidate ‘clearly violated’ NHS rules over Keir Starmer visit

       


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