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Ukrainian border chief says dozens have died trying to flee illegally since February 2022

2024-04-30 00:00:00.0 欧洲新闻电视台-欧洲新闻原网页

As the world pores over the intricate details of hostage releases, trucks of humanitarian aid or even dimensions of Hamas' tunnels, we are in serious danger of missing the wood for the trees.

The ongoing multi-front Iranian attack on Israel by Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in the centre and Houthis in the south, has been minimised and rebranded as a Hamas-Israel war.

But the actual wood is even wider.

The announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, just weeks prior was what actually triggered the 7 October attacks.

Unsettling the Russia-China-Iran axis sparked the regional Middle Eastern conflict, which now threatens to spread into a global war.

US foreign policy and China's surprise peace deal

Three main pieces of evidence point in this direction, despite the continued denial by the various parties.

Let’s start with US foreign policy over the past few years. It is widely known that the Biden administration has not been the biggest admirer of Mohammed Bin Salman, or MBS, the de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

It is also common knowledge that the Biden administration has openly shunned the current Netanyahu government. Yet, despite these limitations, Biden has invested huge military, economic and diplomatic efforts in promoting the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The three months leading up to 7 October saw an increasing chorus of US, Saudi and Israeli leaders openly discussing an impending peace treaty.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, March 2024 Evelyn Hockstein/AP

Indeed, the three months leading up to 7 October saw an increasing chorus of US, Saudi and Israeli leaders openly discussing an impending peace treaty.

Secondly, in March 2023, China surprised the world and brokered a peace treaty between Iran and Saudi Arabia. After decades of enmity and a formal cutting of ties in 2016, this treaty was touted as a momentous development in the region.

But more surprising than the treaty itself was the choice of the Chinese midwife and the location of the signing in Beijing itself.

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China has not historically involved itself in brokering peace treaties around the world, even more so in the Middle East — notorious for being one of the most complicated geo-political regions in the world.

Many surprised onlookers explained the Chinese role as a desire to diminish American diplomatic prestige. The reality is more economic than diplomatic.

Russian gas? No, thank you

Then, on 10 September 2023, the governments of India, the US, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, and European Union representatives signed the Memorandum of Understanding officially starting the IMEC at the G20 in New Delhi.

This economic corridor is set to be the largest economic infrastructure project ever undertaken by the democratic world and its supporters in the Gulf monarchies.

The Russian economy and military machine are dependent on hydrocarbons. The irresponsible dependence of European civilian and industrial life on Russian gas was highlighted at the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Gazprom's Amur Gas Processing Plant near the town of Svobodny, in the far eastern Amur region, September 2023 Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik via AP

It will connect the 1.4 billion citizens of India with the 400 million people living in the Middle East and another 750 million in Europe through a series of ports, train tracks, and pipelines. It is a direct threat to the economic interests of Washington's two main military and economic competitors — Russia and China.

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Initially, Europe was directly funding the Kremlin's war machine through the purchase of Moscow's gas whilst simultaneously applying sanctions on the Russian economy and supporting Ukraine.

The IMEC offers the best solution to providing Europe with an alternative to Russian gas, hence the Kremlin's opposition to the project.

Saudi-Israeli normalisation at the heart of the issue

For its part, the Chinese government had already embarked on the largest infrastructure project known to humankind in 2013. This project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is designed to connect 75% of the globe encompassing 50% of global GDP via road, rail and sea to Beijing.

Already in its 11th year, the BRI has seen success, particularly in developing countries, whilst awakening much of the democratic world to the scope of President Xi Jinping’s vision.

The IMEC is the answer of the democratic world and its allies to China’s BRI and as such the biggest threat to China’s vision of redefining the global order.

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Saudi-Israeli normalisation lies at the centre of the IMEC. Through no fault of their own, Saudi Arabia and Israel find themselves at the nexus of the main geo-political rivalry of the 21st century.

The US has been pushing hard to strengthen the infrastructure which will protect their interests for the rest of this century.

The Chinese tried to torpedo this by brokering the Iranian-Saudi peace treaty but to no avail.

The signing of the IMEC on 10 September left China, Russia and Iran with few remaining options to stop Saudi-Israeli normalisation other than regional war. And that is why we are where we are.

So when you next find yourself staring at the trees, take a step back and see the wood for what it really is.

Terry Newman is an author with two decades of political and business experience across the Middle East.

At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at view@euronews.com to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.

The head of Ukraine's state border guard has said at least 30 people have died attempting to flee the country since February 2022, as the number of Ukrainians trying to avoid conscription continues to rise.

In an interview with Ukraine's national news agency, Ukrinform, Andriy Demchenko said illegal attempts to cross the border occur every day, often with the help of third parties.

"Most of these attempts are outside the checkpoints on the border with Moldova and Romania," he said. "The largest number of attempts with forged documents is recorded on the border with Poland. Most of the offenders are not independent participants in the process, they use the services of organisers."

Demchenko explained the death toll reflects not just the danger of crossing the border in itself, but the paid people smugglers' lack of interest in the escapees' safety.

"It is strange that people are willing to pay large sums of money without knowing the person personally. They receive some instructions, transfer money somewhere for the instructions, and then they are faced with the fact that the route runs along a mountain river.

"Then the violators are surprised that they paid money, they were promised assistance, and when they got to the border, they found that they had to cross a mountain river, and many realised that they did not have enough strength to do so.

"And so someone lost their life trying to cross a mountain river or cross the mountains...In addition to these obstacles, there are wild animals in the mountains that also pose a serious threat to life."

According to Demchenko, since the introduction of martial law, some 450 criminal groups specialising in smuggling people out of the country have been exposed by the authorities.

He also said some 120 people are stopped at the border every day, many of them because they cannot produce evidence of the purpose of their trips.

Pulling out the stops

Ukraine recently lowered the minimum age for compulsory military service from 27 to 25 in an attempt to boost its ranks.

The undersupplied army is struggling to hold back Russian forces in several areas, while a high proportion of troops have had adequate time to rest and recover away from the battlefield for many months.

The country has also expanded the scope of martial law as it prepares for an anticipated Russian offensive in the east and south.

A recent breakthrough in the US Congress has however provided Ukraine with new hope, clearing the way for a much-needed influx of American military aid after months of deadlock.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged Hamas to accept Israel's latest proposal for a Gaza truce and hostage release deal, calling it “extraordinarily generous”.

It comes as a Hamas delegation left Cairo late on Monday following extensive discussions with Egyptian brokers.

The terms of the draft deal were not made public, but Israeli media said Israel softened its position, now seeking the release of 33 hostages, down from 40, in return for the release of some 900 Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas is believed to hold around 100 Israelis and other nationals in the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian militant group will "return with a written response to the truce proposal," according to Egyptian security sources.

“Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel, and at this moment, the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and ceasefire is Hamas,” Blinken said at a World Economic Forum gathering in Riyadh.

“They have to decide, and they have to decide quickly. So, we’re looking to that, and I’m hopeful that they will make the right decision and we can have a fundamental change in the dynamic,” he added.

An Israeli delegation, composed of security officials, will depart on Tuesday to discuss the deal with the Egyptian brokers, Israeli media report.

Hamas has so far baulked at a series of offers negotiated by Egypt, Qatar and the US and agreed to by Israel. Even without a deal, Blinken said it was critical to improve conditions in Gaza now.

“We’re also not waiting on a ceasefire to take the necessary steps to meet the needs of civilians in Gaza,” Blinken told Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers earlier Monday.

He commented after arriving in Saudi Arabia for the first stop of his Middle East tour, which includes trips to Jordan and Israel on Tuesday and Wednesday.

One question is whether that will be enough to overcome Hamas' concerns over the ceasefire’s second phase.

Hamas to respond to Israel's hostage proposal in 48 hours

Hamas has demanded assurances that an eventual release of all hostages will bring a complete end to Israel’s nearly seven-month assault in Gaza and a withdrawal of its troops from the devastated territory.

Israel has offered only an extended pause, vowing to resume its offensive once it is over.

The issue has repeatedly obstructed efforts by US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators during months of talks.

Hamas said on Monday in a statement that ensuring a permanent ceasefire is a fundamental cornerstone for moving towards the details of negotiations and the success of the agreement with Israel.

Abdul Latif al-Qanou, a spokesman for Hamas, stressed the necessity of fulfilling the demands of the Palestinian people, including "a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal of forces from the Gaza Strip, and the return of refugees."

Under the mediation of Egypt, Israel proposed the latest ceasefire agreement, warning that now is the "last chance" for a truce deal before the Israeli army launches a ground operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah where more than 1.5 million Palestinians are taking refuge.

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关键词： border ceasefire Hamas Saudi Blinken China's treaty Israel