The August war has had repercussions beyond the immediate casus belli between Russia and Georgia. It has affected domestic and foreign policies in the states of the South Caucasus and in the neighboring countries, it has raised as yet unanswered questions about future European security architecture and it continues to affect the US-Russian relationship.

       The war had an immediate impact on Candidate Obama in the fall of 2008, when, during the electoral campaign, he had to refute accusations by his opponent John McCain that his response to the war had been too timid. After Obama’s election and the beginning of the rapprochement with Moscow, Georgia receded as an issue between Russia and the United States. The Obama and Medvedev administrations focused on core issues of bilateral concern: New Start, Afghanistan and Iran. The post-Soviet space became a less contentious issue between Moscow and Washington as Ukraine changed its direction and other global economic and political problems demanded both Russian and American attention.

       Nevertheless, there is a stalemate on the question of the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, since only four states have recognized their independence, and neither the United States, nor the European Union, nor China, nor Russia’s partners in the CIS appear to be willing to do so. It seems that the world will live with yet another unresolved status issue, as it has with Cyprus for several decades and as it may have to with Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria for some time to come.

       Russia has achieved its major objective of separating South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and, in the wake of the war, reminding its neighbors of the correlation of forces in the region. President Medvedev made clear in his recent interview with Ekho Moskvy that Russia will refrain from official dealings with Georgia as long as Mikheil Saakashvili remains President. From a U.S. perspective, the situation on the ground appears stable, but, given the tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow, there is concern about potential developments in the lead-up to the 2014 Sochi Olympics.

       The recent U.S. Senate resolution on Georgia restates what has been U.S. policy since September 2008, namely that the U.S. supports Georgia’s territorial integrity and that Russia has yet to comply with the terms of the agreement that ended the war and withdraw its troops. Negotiations in Geneva to resolve this issue continue and may do so for a long time. There are 1,000 Georgian troops fighting in Afghanistan and Georgia remains a NATO partner in this war. Washington is unlikely to change its policy toward Georgia any time soon.

       The United States and Russia will likely continue to disagree about Georgia’s status and will have to manage these disagreements over the next year during their respective legislative and presidential election campaigns. The August war raised serious questions about how Russia, Europe and the United States can more effectively regulate Euro-Atlantic security, questions that are no nearer being answered today than they were three years ago.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.