After their over-performances in Virginia and New Jersey last week (and the big win in Virginia’s governor’s race), Republicans are feeling pretty confident about taking back the majorities in Congress in next November’s midterm elections.
2021 Election: Complete coverage and analysis ArrowRight
We can see why. A year out from the midterms, President Biden is unpopular, Americans are spooked by this strange pandemic economy, and Republicans think Democrats’ legislative agenda is politically unpalatable.
But Democrats have gotten some assists in their effort to hold control. Those include early GOP retirements and now Republicans’ dream candidate in New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu (R), announcing Tuesday he’s not going to run for Senate.
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Here’s a look at what needs to happen for Republicans to take back the Senate and the House of Representatives next year.
The battle for the Senate
Where it stands now: The chamber is split in a rare 50-50 tie between parties, but, technically, the Democratic caucus has the majority, because Vice President Harris (D) casts the tiebreaking vote.
What Republicans need for the majority: Just to net one seat. That’s it. Then, the Senate would stand at 51-49, with Republicans having a one-vote majority.
Where Republicans have a chance to pick up seats: They’re eyeing at least three purple states where Democrats are running for reelection: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The good news for Democrats is that these are all states that Biden won in 2020, albeit not by much. The bad news for Democrats is that Biden won Virginia by a larger margin than any of these states — and Virginia Democrats lost all three statewide races last week and their state House majority.
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Candidates matter, too, and there it’s a mixed bag for Republicans. In Georgia, former president Donald Trump endorsed former NFL player Herschel Walker despite allegations of domestic violence against him — one of several Republican Senate candidates with ugly pasts. (Walker has said altercations with his wife happened before he recognized he was struggling mentally.)
In Pennsylvania, the estranged wife of a top candidate, Sean Parnell, also endorsed by Trump, accused him of strangling her and hitting his young children. (Parnell denies this.) The head of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm recently wouldn’t say whether Parnell is the right candidate for the job.
But in Georgia, at least, the Republican establishment has come around to Walker after seeing how well he fundraises; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) recently endorsed him.
New Hampshire was on Republicans’ priority list to knock off a Senate Democrat, but Republicans may need to reassess that, now that Sununu announced he is not going to run against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). He decided instead to run for reelection as governor. Former senator Kelly Ayotte (R) probably won’t run either. Republicans need to find a candidate to make this race super competitive again.
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It’s not all bad for Senate Democrats: They, too, have chances to pick up seats and mitigate any losses. Republicans are retiring next year in competitive states including North Carolina and Pennsylvania. That could significantly help Democrats, since it’s easier to win an open Senate seat than to kick out a sitting senator.
Democrats have come close but had trouble winning races recently in North Carolina, a state that barely voted for Trump twice. But this time, Trump could be making things harder for Republicans. A former Republican governor, Pat McCrory, is running, and he’s one of the biggest names in the race. But Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd (R) instead, and he’s getting most of the right-wing attention as a result.
Democrats are counting on messy Republican infighting this year during primary season to help them win races. While Republicans beat each other up in states including Pennsylvania, Democrats hope they can coalesce around candidates who can start raising money for the general election. (Republicans argue that Democrats in these primaries are moving too far left to be electable in these purple states.)
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Democrats also are making a play at trying to knock off Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin, if he doesn’t retire first. That’s another state Biden barely won that could be quite competitive for Democrats.
How the Senate 2022 map is shaping up
The battle for the House of Representatives
Where it stands: Democrats have the majority in the 435-member chamber, but by just eight seats.
What Republicans need to take the majority: They need to net a total of just five seats to take back the majority.
Where Republicans have a chance to pick up seats: All over the country. Republicans ecstatically pointed out after the Virginia elections last week that there are 50 House Democrats in seats that are more Republican-leaning than the state of Virginia as a whole — from California to Maine.
A number of other factors are going Republicans’ way: Mainly, redistricting. Republicans are leading the process to redraw congressional boundaries in many of the battleground states that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives for years to come. That means Republicans would not even have to win many competitive races to take back the majority; they could conceivably just redraw themselves some or all of the way there. David Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report estimates that Republicans could net at least two congressional seats in redistricting. In Texas, for example, Republican lawmakers get to create two congressional districts in part because of growth in the Latino population, yet they are proposing not drawing a Latino-majority district.
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It’s not all bad for Democrats: They hope they can regain some popularity by passing legislation that affects millions of Americans’ lives. They just passed a major investment in U.S. roads and bridges and broadband. And now they’re trying to pass a historic expansion of the federal safety net and invest in reducing carbon emissions to fight climate change. But will this legislation come soon enough to make a difference to voters?