The President’s best decision during his first year in office is the start of an anticorruption fight and the dismissal of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov (replaced by the popular Sergei Shoigu). As for his worst decision, it is appointing Dmitry Medvedev as Prime Minister, something that sparked quite a serious negative reaction.

       One year ago, on May 7th, Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as Russian President. He returned to the presidency after an absence of four years while serving as prime-minister. Valdai Club expert Alexei Mukhin reviews the first year of Putin’s third presidential term: what he said and what he did.

       The President’s best decision during his first year in office is the start of an anticorruption fight and the dismissal of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov (replaced by the popular Sergei Shoigu). As for his worst decision, I would say it is appointing Dmitry Medvedev as Prime Minister, something that sparked quite a serious negative reaction in the Russian public consciousness.

       The implementation of Vladimir Putin’s election program has met with certain problems, arising both from the Government’s policy to finance primarily innovation projects and economic modernization rather than undertakings in the social sphere, as well as from the regional authorities’ inability to cope with the expanded functions handed down to them from the federal level. Among other things, it will be more difficult to make good on the social commitments which Vladimir Putin assumed during his presidential campaign on account of the anticorruption fight that has been stirring a significant amount of resistance amongst officials and the legislative corps.

       The deteriorating condition of the global economy (causing energy prices to decline and increasing the problems faced by lynchpin Russian companies like Gazprom, and Rosneft) is another factor which complicates efforts to implement the presidential commitments.

       That Putin continues to insist on the social orientation of his policy is regularly confirmed during various meetings and call-in shows. But it is also clear that the Russian public is “tired” of Putin the politician, something which is only natural considering their ingrained habit to personify the top authority and make it responsible for all their ills, including everyday ones.

       Failed expectations are the main reason as to why the President’s political ratings are so volatile at the moment.

       The ruling party and the opposition

       Today it is clear even to non-specialists that Vladimir Putin has been distancing himself from United Russia, a party which now evokes highly negative emotions in the public.

       This has put United Russia in a state of slight shock and disappointment, but the “ruling party” will soon realize that it should not fear the president’s new “favorite child,” the National Popular Front (NPF).

       United Russia is sure to regain all lost ground, first at the level of regional campaigns, and later possibly at the federal level, if the NPF fails to organize itself politically. For now, the NPF is unable to clearly formulate its political stance, lacking as it does any organizational structure.

       The President’s distancing from the executive vertical is so far less obvious, but it can be felt as well. It is clear that the current cabinet, concerned as it is with its own commercial problems and projects, does not particularly care about addressing the tasks formulated by the president.

       Vladimir Putin is also skeptical about the opposition, or the so-called “protest movement,” whose quality he doubts. And the president has every reason to think so, because the “creative class” has been incapable of formulating any positive agenda (claims on the authorities) so as to be able to exploit something other than the public’s negative emotions. The “dark side of power” holds a grip on both the system and non-system opposition, which can generate nothing but criticism.

       This will sooner or later alienate the opposition’s current collective sympathizers, who will find outlets for self-fulfillment more interesting than rallies and processions.

       The anticorruption fight

       Encouraged by the top, the anticorruption fight is being conducted systemically, making its prospects seem optimistic. The effectiveness of the anticorruption effort should be estimated by the real repayment of damages to the state and other victims, including businessmen, rather than by the number of arrests or imprisonments. The anticorruption fight should become a permanent component of state policy, and it would therefore be logical to start confiscating property owned by corrupt officials and their family members, if it is proved that their property and assets are criminal in origin.

       Vladimir Putin’s decision to introduce stricter regulations for bureaucrats (a ban on foreign bank accounts and assets) should cleanse the bureaucratic class of those seeking nothing but personal enrichment. The public welcomed this initiative, but it needs to be developed and constantly monitored by the top authority.

       A loss of control in this regard is likely to lead to negative consequences. Given that the people watch corrupt officials’ behavior closely, their disappointment will affect the president’s ratings and weaken his political standing.

       Russia’s world leadership

       Unfortunately, Russia’s G20 presidency (which came in the first year of Vladimir Putin’s third term in office) is unlikely to lead to an improvement in the country’s international prestige, because for this it needs to build up its economic potential. But successfully hosting events associated with this status will enable the national leadership to make useful international links and partnerships that will help implement a number of crucial projects (for example, achieving a rapprochement with Japan and South Korea, rather than with China alone).

       It is Russia’s duty to formulate and propose a world development program of its own. Equally important is to invite other countries (both friendly and not so friendly towards the Russian Federation) to be co-authors in this. A joint implementation of this “live development program” is exactly what would propel Russia towards world leadership.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.