Open this photo in gallery
Samara Perez outside her Montreal home with her two children, newborn Eytan and her daughter Liev, who is three years old.
Karene-Isabelle Jean-Baptiste/The Globe and Mail
Samara Perez and her husband Joe Brier were planning for a second child when the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March, 2020.
As the crisis intensified, the couple’s fears mounted: If Prof. Perez, 34, were to give birth during a spike in COVID-19 infections, would her husband be shut out of the delivery room? What would parental leave look like in lockdown with the mother and father, their three-year-old daughter and a newborn isolated at home in Montreal? After thinking it through, the spouses hit pause on their plans.
“I just didn’t feel like I needed to have a baby tomorrow,” recalled Prof. Perez, a psychologist at McGill University Health Centre and assistant professor of oncology at the school.
With Montreal locked down, the social pressures of having another child melted away further: “I wasn’t going to communions and brises and meeting my friends’ second kids,” Prof. Perez said of her experiences in the first wave. “I didn’t see babies. It created less of an urgency.”
The spouses joined many Canadians whose family planning took a detour when the pandemic deepened last spring.
In the first wave, some observers mused that couples locked down together at home would spell a pandemic baby boom nine months into the crisis. Those early, giddy predictions never materialized.
Instead, Canada saw a baby bust: 13,434 fewer children were born in 2020 than in 2019 – the lowest number since 2006, according to preliminary birth data released late last month by Statistics Canada. In a report from the agency, statisticians surmised that the onset of the global pandemic in the early months of 2020 likely contributed to steep fertility declines in the final months of that year, as families delayed having children amid rising case counts, economic insecurity, job loss, school and daycare closures. They also pointed to travel restrictions limiting international migration, leading to fewer births among newcomer parents.
Annual number of live births in Canada
350,000 355,000 360,000 365,000 370,000 375,000 380,000 385,000 390,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 367864 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: statistics canada
data
share
×
year Number 2007-01-01 367864 2008-01-01 377886 2009-01-01 380863 2010-01-01 377213 2011-01-01 377636 2012-01-01 381869 2013-01-01 380323 2014-01-01 384100 2015-01-01 382392 2016-01-01 383102 2017-01-01 377308 2018-01-01 374049 2019-01-01 372038 2020-01-01 358604
Annual number of live births in Canada download csv
×
Share this chart:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/chartprod/dWTA7YGsn9TCxKqn5/thumbnail.png
Canada’s birth-rate decline mirrors similar trends internationally, with France, England, Wales and the United States reporting notably fewer babies born in 2020 compared to 2019. Nearly one in five Canadians ages 25 to 44 said they plan to postpone having children because of the pandemic, with 14 per cent saying they now want fewer kids than before, according to a separate survey published by Statistics Canada this fall.
At the same time, births to women ages 40 to 49 increased last year from 2019, the only age cohort to show an upward fertility swing, according to data from the agency. “When you are on a short timeline, you don’t choose to delay for a year,” said Marina Adshade, a faculty member at the University of British Columbia’s Vancouver School of Economics who took an early interest in fertility rates in the pandemic.
When it comes to lifting pandemic public health measures, handle with care
Vaccines for children are almost here. Does Canada have a plan?
Mere days into the crisis, Prof. Adshade cast doubt on a COVID baby boom, predicting a bust instead. While she views 2020′s decrease as a blip, she believes it could affect birth rates over the next several years.
Story continues below advertisement
“Some people will age out of their fertility in this time. Those births will never be reclaimed,” Prof. Adshade said. “It’s not just a delay in, ‘Should I have a baby this year or next?’ For people who are at the stage of their life where they are starting to look for partners to form families with, this will be a multiyear delay for them.”
A drop in unplanned pregnancies helped drive declining birth rates around the country, Prof. Adshade said. The number of babies born to women ages 15 to 19 plummeted to 5,682 last year, its lowest point in decades. “Social distancing and shelter in place orders make for extremely good birth control. Teens can’t get pregnant on Zoom,” Prof. Adshade pointed out in a March, 2020, Twitter thread on the coming baby bust. Here, she noted that stoppages of fertility treatments during the pandemic would also contribute to a decline in births.
Monthly admissions of permanent residents to Canada
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12915 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: IMMIGRATION, REFUGEES AND CITIZENSHIP CANADA
data
share
×
month count 2015-01-01 12915 2015-02-01 16440 2015-03-01 21770 2015-04-01 21165 2015-05-01 23895 2015-06-01 27025 2015-07-01 27770 2015-08-01 24350 2015-09-01 26770 2015-10-01 23990 2015-11-01 20855 2015-12-01 24890 2016-01-01 27280 2016-02-01 32035 2016-03-01 26925 2016-04-01 28125 2016-05-01 29460 2016-06-01 30710 2016-07-01 26485 2016-08-01 21265 2016-09-01 20480 2016-10-01 18320 2016-11-01 16205 2016-12-01 19085 2017-01-01 21890 2017-02-01 22825 2017-03-01 28120 2017-04-01 25120 2017-05-01 25430 2017-06-01 27460 2017-07-01 25765 2017-08-01 22205 2017-09-01 22150 2017-10-01 21175 2017-11-01 20150 2017-12-01 24220 2018-01-01 23550 2018-02-01 25645 2018-03-01 30810 2018-04-01 28825 2018-05-01 28785 2018-06-01 30070 2018-07-01 29045 2018-08-01 25325 2018-09-01 27920 2018-10-01 26395 2018-11-01 22880 2018-12-01 21805 2019-01-01 18645 2019-02-01 20250 2019-03-01 27060 2019-04-01 26900 2019-05-01 33015 2019-06-01 34365 2019-07-01 36615 2019-08-01 31585 2019-09-01 35515 2019-10-01 31235 2019-11-01 25080 2019-12-01 20910 2020-01-01 24715 2020-02-01 25895 2020-03-01 18525 2020-04-01 4105 2020-05-01 10900 2020-06-01 19070 2020-07-01 13730 2020-08-01 11370 2020-09-01 15015 2020-10-01 14995 2020-11-01 15270 2020-12-01 11000 2021-01-01 24680 2021-02-01 23395 2021-03-01 22395 2021-04-01 21170 2021-05-01 17435 2021-06-01 35750 2021-07-01 39560
Monthly admissions of permanent residents to Canada download csv
×
Share this chart:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/chartprod/EixAstkAKC5kwAvCq/thumbnail.png
The economist is keen to see the next round of birth numbers for early 2021, to determine how living through lockdowns shaped Canadians’ childbearing decisions further into the crisis.
“We’ll see the effect of people who have children being home with those children, trying to balance work and family life. Some were disappointed with their partners’ contribution,” said Prof. Adshade, who wrote the book Dollars and Sex: How Economics Influences Sex and Love. “What we will start seeing are the people who say, ‘You know what? We’re good with one kid.’ People will start reducing their family size in expectation that things don’t always proceed as planned.”
Ten months into the pandemic in Montreal, Prof. Perez and her husband decided to move ahead with their plans for a second baby. With vaccines and hope on the horizon, she conceived in December, 2020, delivering a boy in August.
While she feels fortunate, Prof. Perez noted that mothering a pandemic-era baby involves frequent quieting of fear. When strangers peer into her stroller at the park, she worries about whether they are double vaccinated. And when her uninoculated toddler touches the newborn, she wonders how many times she’s washed her hands.
“I try to balance between realism and risk,” Prof. Perez said. “And I try to recreate some of those prepandemic feelings of trust, confidence and resilience.”
Year-over-year percentage change in number of live births in Canada, by mother's age
2019 to 2020
Age not stated 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 Under 15 All ages -11.1 3.5 0.6 -2.3 -2.0 -5.5 -7.4 -11.0 -37.5 -3.6% THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: statistics canada
data
share
×
Age group Change All ages -3.6 Under 15 -37.5 15 to 19 -11.0 20 to 24 -7.4 25 to 29 -5.5 30 to 34 -2.0 35 to 39 -2.3 40 to 44 0.6 45 to 49 3.5 Age not stated -11.1
Year-over-year percentage change in number of live births in Canada, by mother's age download csv
×
Share this chart:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/chartprod/aPf8w5xzwfBKZrWG2/thumbnail.png
She is not alone in her apprehension as a mother of an infant in the pandemic. Nearly 69 per cent of pregnant women surveyed during the first wave reported feeling distressed, according to a study of nearly 1,500 women published last month by researchers at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto.
Women were anxious about getting infected while pregnant, being alone in the delivery room, getting no visits or support from family and friends, and being denied access to in-person prenatal classes and hospital tours. Second-time parents worried about their older, unvaccinated children bringing the virus home from school.
“I could see the fear on my patients’ faces when the pandemic was declared,” said Tali Bogler, the study’s lead author and chair of family medicine obstetrics at St. Michael’s Hospital.
“Many, many questions at the beginning of the pandemic were, ‘Should I delay?’ ” Dr. Bogler said. “People were going through a significant amount of stress economically and socially, with fears of what COVID-19 would involve in pregnancy. Many people were worried about entering the medical system at that time.”
Dana Ramler, a design consultant on Vancouver Island, was set to welcome her first child in the spring of 2020, expecting “the usual hospital birth experience.” Then the pandemic hit, sending her and her husband into a panic.
“We had this Amazon cart full of emergency home-birth supplies that we could press ‘purchase’ on if we needed to at the last minute,” Ms. Ramler recalled of those early days in the pandemic.
Though her baby was born healthy in hospital, the mother grew anxious about infection: “There was grief about, this isn’t how it was supposed to go,” she said. “We were supposed to be sharing this with people, not afraid of the air they breathe.”
Cautiously weathering months of surges and lockdowns with her new family, Ms. Ramler, 37, began contemplating a second child: “I knew it wasn’t the optimal time to be having a baby but I’m getting older.”
After conceiving this April, her optimism turned to worry in the third wave. The climate crisis amplified her fears, as the family suffered through June’s heat dome and temperatures soared to the 40s where they live.
“I’m growing this human while the Earth is burning and everyone is dying,” the mother said. “What kind of a world is this child going to enter?”
Toronto’s Dr. Bogler warned that distress levels remain high among new mothers and pregnant women. She and her study co-authors urged health care providers to prioritize mental-health support for these women, now and in future large-scale crises. To help them, Dr. Bogler co-created the popular Instagram account Pandemic Pregnancy Guide, which offers evidence-based information about the virus and vaccines, plus free resources including yoga classes and lactation seminars.
Rivanna Segal relied heavily on the online resource after becoming pregnant in the second wave. She watched the trepidation on women’s faces at her prenatal classes, now held via Zoom, the video-calling app. The pandemic had done away with the community, camaraderie and shared knowledge exchanged at face-to-face classes and moms’ groups.
“It felt like there was a lot of fear and hysteria – which was completely reasonable – but there wasn’t a lot of data to say, ‘Don’t,’ ” said Ms. Segal, a Toronto dietician. “Babies kept being born in April, May, June and July, and they were okay.”
After marrying in November, 2019, Ms. Segal and her husband Adam began trying for a baby in April, 2020, one month after the pandemic was declared. She was 41, and they decided not to wait. “I also knew there were delays with IVF, if we needed IVF,” said Ms. Segal, whose son was born this past May.
She and friends in her age group are predicting a late-stage pandemic baby boom, as people play catch-up. Some 7 per cent of Canadians ages 25 to 44 said they now want to build their families sooner, with 4 per cent saying they’d like to have more children than they did before the crisis, according to a Statistics Canada survey.
As the third wave receded this past summer in Toronto, the Segals began taking their newborn outside. They noticed how powerfully people reacted.
“He was like a little celebrity in the street. It was as if people had never seen a baby before,” Ms. Segal said, describing women and men of all ages stopping them in public. “It was a spark of optimism.”
Our Morning Update and Evening Update newsletters are written by Globe editors, giving you a concise summary of the day’s most important headlines. Sign up today.