Westminster is braced for Boris Johnson to reshuffle his Cabinet this week, possibly as early as today, as speculation reached fever pitch among advisers and MPs.
Ministers were cancelling meetings on Wednesday morning, according to one Government source, in a sign that they expected changes to start being announced soon.
Sources close to Mr Johnson’s inner circle told The Daily Telegraph that a shake-up of the Prime Minister’s top ministerial team was expected this week. But Downing Street was yet to confirm whether a reshuffle was on the way, leaving doubt about whether a Cabinet change was indeed imminent or not.
Mr Johnson met with his Chief Whip Mark Spencer on Sunday afternoon in Number 10, though part of that meeting was believed to be votes on Mr Johnson’s tax rise on Tuesday. The size of any reshuffle, if it does come this week, remains unclear. Mr Johnson has largely kept his top team the same since becoming Prime Minister in July 2019.
Gavin Williamson, the Education Secretary who consistently is the least popular cabinet minister with Tory members according to ConservativeHome polling, is seen as at risk.
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Prime ministers never like Cabinet reshuffles. They are messy and make far more enemies than friends.
Boris Johnson is said to be particularly nervous about this, as his loyal band of brothers (and sisters) is relatively small. But the reshuffle has been talked about for many months and is well overdue.
So who is at risk in the coming hours? Some names have been in the frame for a long time - Gavin Williamson, the Education Secretary, and George Eustice, the Environment Secretary among them.
More recently big hitters Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, and Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, have entered the spotlight - prompting some speculation that this is Number 10 "pitch-rolling" for their departures.
Boris Johnson is long rumoured to have wanted to reshuffle his top team ahead of the Conservative Party Conference, at the start of next month.
But, as HuffPost's Paul Waugh points out, that puts organisers in a potentially sticky situation.
Sources have suggested the reshuffle could run into tomorrow, if it begins this afternoon as seems likely.
That's not hugely surprising - but it does suggest there will be some significant moves, even if it is mostly a case of a "reshuffle of portfolios" rather than a total shake-out.
This appears to chime with what ITV's Robert Peston has heard.
Multiple sources throughout Westminster have told The Telegraph they expected the long-awaited reshuffle to begin after PMQs this afternoon.
One source suggested the train was already in motion and "had left the station".
The reshuffle is expected to begin with "the goodbyes", with Cabinet ministers including Gavin Williamson and George Eustice rumoured to be demoted.
Kem Badenoch, currently a junior Treasury minister, is among those tipped for promotion, with suggestions she could take on the brief from the beleaguered Education Secretary.
However sources suggested there will be few outright sackings from the risk-averse Prime Minister, who is said to be wary of making future enemies.
A "Plan B" for the return of coronavirus restrictions in Britain would be triggered if the rate of hospitalisations ticks up, Sajid Javid has said.
The Health Secretary warned that pressure on the NHS through increased hospitalisations would be the key factor in deciding to impose the measures, which include compulsory masks, vaccine passports and a new public health messaging campaign on the virus.
"A new, dangerous new variant, would be of course of huge significant concern, but there could be other issues," he told Sky News.
"So for example, what happens in the NHS is going to be hugely important to me, to the whole country - making sure that we don't get to a position again where the NHS becomes unsustainable.
"I think we're going to have to look at a number of measures which we already do, working closely with our friends of the NHS.
"So of course that would be the level of hospitalisation, it will be the pressures on A&E, the pressures on the workforce."
It's still unclear whether Boris Johnson will reshuffle his Cabinet today or tomorrow, but the sense is very much that it has to happen this week.
The reshuffle has long been expected ahead of the Party Conference, and recess begins next week - but the Prime Minister is expected to be in New York for most of that, at a UN meeting.
Here is what the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says:
Boris Johnson might be able to reshuffle his top team - but there's not much he can do about Government scientists, even if they contradict the plan he has just set out.
Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the Sage sub-group Spi-B, this morning said the fact that people "are given no choice" but to return to the office could backfire, and urged a rethink on official guidance.
Prof Reicher told Times Radio the rate of socialising had reached the highest point this year but most of this was because of "mixing at work".
"So the problem isn't that people are choosing to party all the time, the problem is people are given no choice because they are required to go back to work. The problem doesn't lie in public psychology, it lies in policy which forces people to do particular things."
He said it would "make sense for people to work at home if they can", and urged employers against presenteeism, forcing people to go in."
Measures should be brought in earlier rather than later to prevent a repeat of mistakes made last year, he added.
Predicting the winners and losers from a reshuffle is something of a fool's errand - not least because things have a habit of changing on the day, when ministers refuse to accept new briefs.
But there are some names that seem destined for an upwards move - while others look likely to take a demotion.
Read more on that here.
Is the long-awaited reshuffle happening today?
Regular readers will know that we have been reporting for some time that a pre-conference reshuffle was in the works, and initially it seemed as though it would finally happen last week, although once the threat of a rebellion over the health and social care bill had been thwarted, those rumours died down.
But once again, Westminster is furiously whispering that it could be on the cards, with some suggesting the sackings could begin just after PMQs - and Government sources are not ruling it out.
But if it is happening today, Boris Johnson is keeping his cards close to his chest about who is up and who is down.
That won't stop some feverish speculation for the next few hours, however.
Priti Patel has been accused of “running scared” after cancelling an appearance at a major police conference amid the ongoing row over a pay freeze for officers.
The Home Secretary had been booked to deliver the keynote address at the annual Police Superintendents’ Association event in Stratford-upon-Avon, just weeks after rank and file officers passed a motion of no confidence in her.
However, less than an hour after receiving a copy of the president’s speech last Friday, which was highly critical of the Government, Ms Patel’s office said she would not be able to attend due to “urgent parliamentary business”.
Organisers offered to change the schedule in order to allow the Home Secretary to attend at any stage during the three-day conference, but were told it would not be possible.
One senior figure at the conference said: “This was the first opportunity since the announcement of the pay freeze that we would have had to put the Home Secretary on the spot. It feels like she is running scared and it has caused a lot of anger.”
The Isis bride Shamima Begum has begged Britain for forgiveness and insisted she did not know the group was a "death cult," as she asked for her UK citizenship ban to be revoked.
Ms Begum, who left Britain in 2015 to join Isis, said she was manipulated and regretted her actions.
"No one can hate me more than I hate myself for what I've done, and all I can say is I'm sorry and just give me a second chance," she said.
Ms Begum said she was "pretty sure" that Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, would change his mind about her citizenship if the pair met face to face.
But Mr Javid, who as home secretary took the decision to revoke Shamima Begum's citizenship, said "it was absolutely the right decision to protect the British people".
He told Good Morning Britain: "The decision is both morally right, absolutely right, but also legally correct and the right one to protect the British people."
Conservative MPs do not have to wear masks in the House of Commons, despite pleas from the Speaker, because they know each other, Sajid Javid has said.
The Health Secretary said Tory MPs were not “strangers” and Government guidance says the public should only wear masks when they are “with people that they are not normally spending time with”.
Photographs of a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday show no ministers or officials wearing masks, prompting criticism and questions about the rules.
Asked about the meeting, and similar photographs of the Conservative back benches in Parliament, Mr Javid said:
“That is perfectly consistent with what the Prime Minister said yesterday, and what I said yesterday, because what we said was that people should consider wearing masks in crowded places, when they are with strangers, when they are with people that they are not normally spending time with.”
Pressed on whether Conservative MPs would be wearing masks on Wednesday during Prime Minister’s Questions, he said: “They're not strangers.
“Conservative backbenchers, whether they are in Parliament in the Chamber, or the other meeting rooms...you have to take measures that are appropriate for the prevalence of COVID at the time.”
A former Chinese diplomat has warned the country could retaliate over a decision to ban the country's ambassador from Parliament.
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, and his counterpart in the House of Lords yesterday decided to ban Zheng Zeguang from Parliament because his country has sanctioned British MPs.
A planned meeting between pro-China MPs and Mr Zeguang has been postponed, in what the Chinese embassy called a “despicable and cowardly” decision.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Victor Gao, a former Chinese diplomat, said:
"This is to be condemned vehemently by the Chinese government.
"The Chinese embassy in London has already issued a letter condemning such a decision and I personally would call for a correction of this decision, otherwise there will be consequences.
"People should not be surprised that if this decision stands, then the Great Hall of the People, the Chinese equivalent of the Parliament in building in London, may make a decision to ban the the UK ambassador from the UK to China from setting foot on the premises of the Great Hall of the People."
It's set to be a busy day in Westminster today, with plenty of debate about the reveal of the "Plan B" for Covid yesterday.
Boris Johnson will face his backbenchers and Sir Keir Starmer in Prime Minister's Questions at midday, when they are likely to grill him on the admission that vaccine passports could be introduced in Britain and that masks could be made compulsory.
Today is an opposition day, which means Labour can choose some debates to be voted on by MPs. They have selected a motion on the Universal Credit uplift, as they argue that a ￡20 rise over the pandemic should be sustained beyond October. The vote will not be binding on the Government but may tempt some Tory rebels to vote against the PM.
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