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Virginians are headed to the polls Tuesday in elections that will have an outsize impact on the direction of the politically purple state, with abortion policies and Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s national profile at stake.
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All 140 seats in the General Assembly are on the ballot, and both major parties have poured millions of dollars into this “off-off-year” election as they try to defend narrow control of one chamber in Richmond and flip the other.
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Live updates on Virginia’s 2023 elections
Voting is underway in Virginia’s 2023 general election. Here’s a guide to key races and issues on Virginia ballots, and follow our Election 2023 live updates here.
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Polling places are open Tuesday from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. All Virginians must vote at their assigned polling place, and anyone already in line at 7 p.m. is allowed to vote.
Get live election results on Virginia's 2023 elections here
Republicans hold a slim edge in the House of Delegates and are looking to win the Senate and keep the House to give Youngkin the consolidated control he needs to enact his conservative agenda, including permanent tax cuts and a push for a 15-week ban on abortion, with exceptions. Such a victory could raise the governor’s national profile and energize a possible last-minute bid for the White House, political analysts say.
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Democrats, who maintain a similarly slim edge in the state Senate, hope to hold that chamber and flip the House. They seek to preserve the state’s status as the last abortion rights stronghold in the South and block the governor’s plans to loosen environmental standards in Virginia. If the Senate is evenly split between the two parties, a tiebreaker vote will fall to Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R).
A guide to the 2023 Virginia general election: What to know before you vote
“In this election, it’s absolutely true that access to abortion is on the ballot,” said Bob Holsworth, a veteran political analyst. “What’s at stake for Youngkin is: Is he going to have relatively free rein in his agenda, or will it be at the sufferance of Democrats?”
Virginia’s elections are among just a few competitive races heading into a banner campaign year in 2024. With the first presidential caucuses less than three months away, the results stand to shape the national mood as attention shifts to Iowa and New Hampshire.
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On a local level, debates over data center development and parental involvement in schools are front and center in races for supervisor and school board seats in Northern Virginia. And voters in Richmond will decide whether to allow the construction of a casino in a closely watched and expensive referendum.
Both parties have been pouring historic amounts of money into blasting out TV and radio ads, with fundraising and spending in some of the most expensive state Senate races north of $5 million — totals that eclipse even many competitive congressional races.
A bipartisan redistricting process resulted in new political maps that have scrambled the state of play and led to a wave of historic retirements while creating some wide-open seats. No matter the results of the election, at least a third of each chamber will turn over to fresh faces.
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More than 100 statehouse races are officially contested, but attention and resources have coalesced on a handful of the most competitive seats — nearly all of which are located in just a few swingy pockets of the commonwealth.
Path to power in Virginia’s elections runs through a handful of suburbs
They include parts of the Washington exurbs in Northern Virginia, where residential and commercial development has winnowed away rural areas; the Fredericksburg area, a former GOP stronghold where new maps have created more of an opening for Democrats; the booming Richmond suburbs, particularly in western Henrico County; and some pockets of the perennially purple and military-heavy Hampton Roads region.
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The full balance of power may not be clear immediately after polls close Tuesday night — particularly in the House of Delegates, where results of especially close races in some districts have in the past taken days to be determined.
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Under more expansive voting laws passed by Democrats, all absentee ballots postmarked by Tuesday and received by the local registrar’s office by noon Friday will be counted. In a notable change from the GOP’s stance in 2020, Youngkin this year encouraged Republicans to cast early ballots.
As of Monday, Virginians had cast more than 789,000 early ballots, according to the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.
The outcome of the elections will determine the tone of Youngkin’s final two years in office and whether he can convert Republican victories into a potential presidential bid, political analysts say.
The governor has been coy about those ambitions while fueling speculation by traveling to early primary and caucus states to either headline GOP events or campaign for other candidates.
Some conservatives, including media mogul Rupert Murdoch and megadonor Thomas Peterffy, have encouraged Youngkin to jump in as an alternative to Donald Trump and the host of declared Republican rivals who have failed to gain traction against the former president.
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But with filing deadlines for a presidential candidacy either in the past or fast approaching in several key states, his chances of success appear to be dwindling, analysts say.
The governor could again boost those chances with a Republican sweep in the General Assembly, said Holsworth.
“If he succeeds in holding the House and flipping the Senate, he will be seen as a pretty remarkable figure in a state that was turning heavily blue who turned it red,” he said. “That would elevate his national stature. Perhaps not in 2024 but certainly thereafter.”
Youngkin has tied Republicans’ hopes for Tuesday in part to the controversial strategy of embracing new limits on abortion access after 15 weeks, in what would serve as a litmus test for other states where conservatives are seeking similar restrictions.
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The governor and his supporters have appealed to moderate voters by selling the 15-week limit on the procedure — with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the pregnant person — as a “reasonable” and “common sense” limit that isn’t an outright ban.
Meanwhile, Youngkin has raised record amounts of money in his party’s push for victory.
With consolidated power, he could enact a conservative agenda featuring not only abortion limits but also permanent tax cuts, looser environmental standards and tighter criminal justice laws, political analysts say.
That prospect has, in turn, energized a more liberal slate of Democratic candidates for the House and Senate who unseated more moderate incumbents in their June primary elections and are pushing back on the idea of further abortion restrictions. They are hoping that victories in either or both of those chambers will neuter Youngkin’s agenda on cultural issues and force him to focus on matters where there is more agreement, such as economic development and school spending.
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There is also the possibility that Richmond will be gridlocked over the next two years if control of the General Assembly remains divided, said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg.
Both state parties have grown more partisan, he said, adding, “Regardless of which party wins, we know that the legislature that takes office in January will be more partisan than the current one.”
Election 2023 Today, voters will decide the next governor in Kentucky and Mississippi, the fate of Ohio Issue 1 and who takes control of Virginia’s legislature. Follow our Election 2023 live updates here.
Virginia elections: What’s at stake in the 2023 Virginia elections? Voters will decide the fate of the Virginia General Assembly as well as local government offices. Get live election results on Virginia elections here.
Ohio Issue 1: Abortion rights are on the ballot in Ohio, where Issue 1 seeks to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. Get live election results on Ohio Issue 1 here.
Kentucky, Mississippi governor’s races: The Kentucky governor’s race is testing Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear’s ability to survive, and Mississippi voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the governor’s office in more than 20 years. Get live election results on the Kentucky governor’s race and Mississippi governor’s race.
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