Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Norihisa Tamura is seen speaking to remote participants at a meeting of the ministry's expert Advisory Board on coronavirus policy, in Chiyoda Ward, Tokyo, on Aug. 11, 2021. (Mainichi/Hidenori Yazawa)

       TOKYO -- The rise in coronavirus infections in Japan and especially the Tokyo region is so steep that the situation is verging on natural disaster levels, the health ministry's advisory board stated at an Aug. 11 meeting.

       The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's Advisory Board is staffed by some of Japan's most senior infectious disease experts, and chaired by Takaji Wakita, head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

       Based on data including the number of severe COVID-19 cases in Tokyo rising by 21 in a day to reach 197 -- a second consecutive day of record highs -- the board said the present state of infections showed that "public health and medical service infrastructure in the capital region in particular are under extreme pressure, and on the verge of a phase akin to conditions in a natural disaster."

       Infections are on an upward trend among over 65s, despite vaccinations progressing in that cohort, and the Advisory Board called for "refraining from crossing prefectural borders, going out, and for examining postponing travel to distant family homes during the Obon summer vacation season."

       When Wakita was asked about whether to accept fans at 2020 Tokyo Paralympic Games events, he responded, "Personally, a situation like the one before seems preferable," referring to the nearly zero-spectator Olympics.

       The most recent weekly new infections per 100,000 of population showed 31 of Japan's 47 prefectures over the 25 cases or more criterion for a state of emergency declaration, also known as Stage 4, marked by an explosive rise in infections. They included Okinawa with 248 per 100,000, Tokyo at 200, Kanagawa at 140 and Saitama with 120. The coronavirus delta variant now makes up 95% of Tokyo's infections, and the board stated it had "almost entirely replaced other variants."

       Along with the overall infection surge, over-65s in Tokyo are seeing rising case numbers despite progress in vaccinations for that age group. Of the 28,948 people confirmed newly infected between Aug. 3 and 9, that age bracket made up 3.3% -- 963 cases. In the prior seven-day period, over-65s made up 602 cases or 2.7% of the total.

       Tallies have also topped the 614-person high recorded April 27 to May 3 for the age group during Japan's fourth wave of infections in spring 2021. On July 29, 669 over-60s were hospitalized for COVID-19; by Aug. 4 it had risen to 748.

       The health ministry's research group also presented excess mortality figures, which calculate how many more people are dying than would normally be expected based on past death rates. Over January and May 2021, excess death rates were between 5,076 and 24,300 people, the largest excess range seen since 2017. It appears the spread of the coronavirus is behind it. Excess death numbers in May this year topped the normal figures in 30 prefectures including Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo compared to an average year.

       The Advisory Board also confirmed it will consider stopping vaccinated medical staff working at coronavirus wards and elsewhere from being classified as people who have had close contact with infected individuals.

       (Japanese original by Hidenori Yazawa and Sooryeon Kim, Lifestyle and Medical News Department)

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