European Commission President Ursula von d (Image: Getty)
Britain’s decision to quit the European Union four years ago has been vindicated again after the European Commission unveiled a ￡1.72 trillion spending plan which will potentially saddle remaining member states with massive new financial liabilities, Brexiteers have claimed. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, speaking in Brussels on Wednesday, said the bloc needed a new budget allowing it to respond to crises like Russia’s war on Ukraine or climate change, fund railways and energy grids, and protect farmers’ livelihoods.
But Lee Rotherham and Bob Lyddon believe her remarks demonstrate that the UK would be on the hook for billions had voters not narrowly backed 'Leave' in 2016. Dr Rotherham, a veteran campaigner sometimes dubbed "Dr Brexit" who was Vote Leave's director of special projects in 2016, told the Daily Express that in practice, it was impossible for the EU to know how much it was going to spend in the next few years, with Britain certain to have been saddled with a heavy burden.
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Ursula von der Leyen speaking in Brussels on Wednesday (Image: Getty)
He added: "The European Commission is a money sponge. It soaks up ever more money for its ravenous ambitions with every year, creating ever more opportunities for fraud and waste.
"The UK got off the roller coaster at the right stop."
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Mr Lyddon, the founder of Lyddon Consulting Services, estimated EU membership would have cost the UK at least ￡100bn over the course of the 14 years from 2021.
He added: "Next Generation EU represented a sea change in terms of the EU creating much larger future liabilities for Member States. This is in line with EU federalists and the Commission pushing for the EU to take over more roles from Member States. Now we have a similar defence fund being set up for another €150billion.
"The UK managed, through Brexit, to get out of this increasing liability, both in terms of the amount to be paid over to the EU, and the lack of control over how it is spent.
Our budget will help build a Union that protects.
We are proposing €131 billion for Defence and Space, under the Competitiveness Fund.
5 times of what we have today.
This will strengthen our industrial base and our capabilities. pic.twitter.com/H3E2ZqyHHV
— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 16, 2025
"It is disturbing that money is borrowed through Next Generation EU and then passed on to be spent in other EU programmes, such as the Horizon Europe (scientific research) and InvestEU (Net Zero projects). It becomes impossible to follow the audit trail to see where the money was spent, and whether it was well spent."
Before Brexit, the UK’s gross annual contribution to the EU hovered around ￡13-14 billion, which after rebates and funding received, translated to a net cost of roughly ￡8-9 billion per year.
Given the EU’s increasing ambitions and new spending priorities the UK’s net contributions would likely have risen to around ￡10-12 billion annually in the 2021-2027 period.
Staying would have spared the UK from the one-off "divorce bill" of roughly ￡35-39 billion - the financial settlement made to cover outstanding commitments. However, it would have remained liable for ongoing contributions, joint EU debt from new borrowing programs like NextGenerationEU, and any future increases in the EU’s or unexpected financial calls.
Over the 2021-2027 period, the UK’s gross contributions could have approached ￡90-100 billion. After subtracting receipts from EU spending programs such as agriculture, cohesion, and research funds—worth about ￡30-35 billion—the net liability would likely be in the range of ￡55-70 billion, equating to an annual net cost of roughly ￡8-10 billion.
The Commission’s ￡1.7 trillion plan does not explicitly account for inflation over the coming years, which means the real cost to member states could be significantly higher when factoring in average inflation rates of around 2% annually.
The UK’s total liability from 2021 through 2035—covering multiple periods and borrowing obligations—could, therefore, have exceeded ￡100 billion in net contributions.
Ms Von der Leyen described her plan, the Multiannual Financial Framework, as "the most ambitious ever proposed".
She told reporters in Brussels: "It is more strategic, more flexible, more transparent, and we are investing more in our capacity to respond and more in our independence."
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However, in an early sign of the troubles ahead, she conceded that even within her own team of policy commissioners, which worked through the night to finalise the proposal, "not everyone was satisfied with the amount".
The European Conservatives and Reformists Group in the European Parliament has voiced reservations, with Bogdan Rzońca MEP, the ECR Coordinator in the Committee, saying: "The Commission has chosen a new direction for the EU, moving away from the established structure of clearly defined policy envelopes.
"While greater flexibility can help address crises, concentrating spending into a few large instruments negotiated at a central level raises questions about transparency, ownership and long-term stability."
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