BEIRUT – More than a month into its war with Israel, militant group Hezbollah says it is ready for a truce, but there are limits to what it can accept after suffering devastating attacks, according to analysts.

       The Iran-backed group said on Oct 30 it would accept a ceasefire, if offered and if the terms were “suitable”, acknowledging it had been dealt “painful” blows by Israel.

       Also on Oct 30, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he had received signals from American envoy Amos Hochstein that a truce could be reached before the US election on Nov 5.

       With much of its senior leadership killed and its strongholds pulverised, Hezbollah could use the recovery time that a truce would offer.

       A ceasefire is a “priority” for Hezbollah so that it can “reorganise its ranks”, said Mr Qassim Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to the group.

       “It will agree to the deployment of the army (in south Lebanon) and to stay away from the borders, but nothing more than that,” he said, referring to Israeli demands for Hezbollah to retreat some 30km from the frontier.

       Hezbollah, which began trading cross-border fire with Israel in 2023 in support of Palestinian ally Hamas, has found itself on the back foot since an all-out war erupted on Sept 23.

       Israel has assassinated the group’s most senior leaders, including its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, and Hashem Safieddine, who was tipped as his successor.

       The killings created a month-long vacuum at the top, as targeted strikes on hideouts across Lebanon suggested an intelligence breach.

       On the ground, Israeli forces have advanced as far as the town of Khiam, some 6km from the border.

       Hezbollah says the Israelis have yet to fully control any frontier village.

       In Lebanon’s east, Hezbollah infrastructure, including underground tunnels and weapon supply lines from Syria, have come under attack, Israel’s military says.

       At least two of the six land crossings with Syria have been closed after Israeli strikes, and aircraft operated by Hezbollah-backer Iran are banned from landing in Lebanon’s only airport, Beirut.

       “(Hezbollah) has been considerably weakened... and it will be very difficult to rebuild it in the current context,” said Dr Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre.

       Already, there are signs that Hezbollah is willing to budge after repeatedly declaring it would stop attacks on Israel only if there is a Gaza ceasefire.

       Although it has yet to officially reverse that position, Mr Mikati said on Oct 30 Hezbollah was no longer linking the two fronts, a reversal that he said came “late”.

       Mr Mikati also said Hezbollah ministers were on board with the implementation of a 2006 UN resolution as part of a ceasefire deal.

       Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, states that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should be deployed in southern Lebanon.

       It also demands the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory.

       “Hezbollah is moving to a point where it could accept the implementation of UN resolution 1701,” said Mr David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank.

       Hezbollah “might be willing to withdraw fighters and infrastructure” some 30km from Lebanon’s southern border to areas north of the Litani River.

       According to Mr Wood, there was an “enormous amount of pressure on Hezbollah” from political rivals and its own support base “to bring an end to this carnage”.

       “This explains why it is more open to ceasefire talks,” he said.

       At the same time, Hezbollah has continued rocket and drone strikes against Israel, including targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence.

       This showed that while Hezbollah was open to a ceasefire, “it will not accept just any terms”, Mr Wood said.

       “(Hezbollah) still feels like it has a seat at the table and could reach a negotiated settlement without total surrender.”

       Mr Mounir Shehadeh, a former Lebanese government coordinator for the UN peacekeeping force Unifil, said Hezbollah was ready to implement Resolution 1701 provided that Israel did so.

       However, he added: “Israel has no interest in implementing the resolution, and it has been violating it since it was signed in 2006.”

       Another stumbling block is that many Hezbollah cadres come from the very villages Israel wants the group to vacate.

       Hezbollah fighters “are the sons of these southern towns”, Mr Shehadeh said.

       “Someone who was born in these villages and grew up there, and his family is there and his interests are there – how can he be asked to leave his village and head to the north of the Litani?” AFP