Economists are warning that Boris Johnson’s much-heralded “levelling up” agenda must amount to more than quick-fix improvements to disadvantaged areas of the Midlands and north of England if it is to make an impression on the UK’s entrenched social inequalities.
The prime minister will on Thursday attempt to put some flesh on the bones of his oft-repeated slogan, using a speech in the West Midlands to say that he aims to restore a sense of “pride in their community” among residents of areas that have felt left-behind for decades.
But with MP Neil O’Brien appointed to advise Mr Johnson on the strategy only 10 weeks ago and firm proposals not not expected until a white paper in the autumn, the speech is expected to be light on firm announcements and heavy on rhetoric.
Extracts released by Downing Street ahead of the speech said that Mr Johnson will say that the drive to boost “left-behind” areas will also relieve pressure on parts of the UK where an “over-heating” economy has delivered sky-high housing costs, overcrowding and congested transport systems.
But he will also insist that levelling up the Midlands and north will not mean “levelling down” in the south of England. And, following the by-election loss of Chesham & Amersham driven in part by a voter revolt against planning reforms, he will promise that the agenda will not mean leafy suburbs and villages being “engulfed by new housing development”.
Recommended Medics urge public to stick to self-distancing and masks after ‘Freedom Day’ Boris Johnson could be hit by ‘pingdemic’ as Sajid Javid tests positive for Covid Pressure mounts for jabs for over-12s, as Delta variant tears through teenage population
“We don’t want to decapitate the tall poppies,” Mr Johnson will say. “We don’t think you can make the poor parts of the country richer by making the rich parts poorer.
“Levelling up is not a jam-spreading operation. It’s not robbing Peter to pay Paul. It’s not zero-sum, it’s win-win.”
Mr Johnson will argue that previous governments have “turbo-charged” London and the southeast by concentrating investment in areas which were already doing well economically.
“By turbo-charging those areas – especially in London and the southeast – you drive prices even higher and you force more and more people to move to the same expensive areas,” he will say.
“And the result is that their commutes are longer, their trains are more crowded, they have less time with their kids. They worry at the same time that the younger generation won’t be able to get a home and that their leafy suburb or village will be engulfed by new housing development but without the infrastructure to go with it.”
UK news in pictures Show all 50
1/50UK news in pictures
UK news in pictures 16 July 2021 The sun rises behind the Sefton Park Palm House, in Sefton Park, Liverpool
PA
UK news in pictures 15 July 2021 Sir Nicholas Serota watches a short film about sea monsters as he opens a ￡7.6 million, 360 immersive dome at Devonport's Market Hall in Plymouth, which is the first of its type to be built in Europe
PA
UK news in pictures 14 July 2021 Heidi Street, playing a gothic character, looks at a brain suspended in glass at the world’s first attraction dedicated to the author of Frankenstein inside the ‘Mary Shelley’s House of Frankenstein’ experience, located in a Georgian terraced house in Bath, as it prepares to open to the public on 19 July
PA
UK news in pictures 13 July 2021 Rehearsals are held in a car park in Glasgow for a parade scene ahead of filming for what is thought to be the new Indiana Jones 5 movie starring Harrison Ford
PA
UK news in pictures 12 July 2021 A local resident puts love hearts and slogans on the plastic that covers offensive graffiti on the vandalised mural of Manchester United striker and England player Marcus Rashford on the wall of a cafe on Copson Street, Withington in Manchester
Getty Images
UK news in pictures 11 July 2021 England's Bukayo Saka with manager Gareth Southgate after the match
Pool via Reuters
UK news in pictures 10 July 2021 Australia’s Ashleigh Barty holds the trophy after winning her final Wimbledon match against Czech Republic’s Karolina Pliskova
Reuters
UK news in pictures 9 July 2021 England 1966 World Cup winner Sir Geoff Hurst stands on top of a pod on the lastminute.com London Eye wearing a replica 1966 World Cup final kit and looking out towards Wembley Stadium in the north of the capital, where the England football team will play Italy in the Euro 2020 final on Sunday
PA
UK news in pictures 8 July 2021 Karolina Pliskova celebrates after defeating Aryna Sabalenka during the women's singles semifinals match on day ten of the Wimbledon Tennis Championships in London
AP
UK news in pictures 7 July 2021 The residents of Towfield Court in Feltham have transformed their estate with England flags for the Euro 2020 tournament
PA
UK news in pictures 6 July 2021 A couple are hit by a wave as they walk along the promenade in Dover, Kent, during strong winds
PA
UK news in pictures 5 July 2021 Alexander Zverev playing against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round of the Gentlemen's Singles on Court 1 on day seven of Wimbledon at The All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
PA
UK news in pictures 4 July 2021 Aaron Carty and the Beyoncé Experience perform on stage during UK Black Pride at The Roundhouse in London
Getty for UK Black Pride
UK news in pictures 3 July 2021 England’s Jordan Henderson celebrates after scoring his first international goal, his side’s fourth against Ukraine during the Euro 2020 quarter final match at the Olympic stadium in Rome
AP
UK news in pictures 2 July 2021 Dan Evans serves against Sebastian Korda during their men’s singles third round match at Wimbledon
Getty
UK news in pictures 1 July 2021 Prince William, left and Prince Harry unveil a statue they commissioned of their mother Princess Diana, on what would have been her 60th birthday, in the Sunken Garden at Kensington Palace, London
AP
UK news in pictures 30 June 2021 Dancers from the Billingham Festival and Balbir Singh Dance Company, during a preview for the The Two Fridas, UK Summer tour, presented by Billingham International Folklore Festival of World Dance in collaboration with Balbir Singh Dance Company, inspired by the life and times of female artists Frida Kahlo and Amrita Sher-Gil , which opens on July 10 at Ushaw Historic House, Chapel and Gardens in Durham
PA
UK news in pictures 29 June 2021 A boy kicks a soccer ball in front of the balconies and landings adorned with predominantly England flags at the Kirby housing estate in London
AP
UK news in pictures 28 June 2021 Emergency services attend a fire nearby the Elephant & Castle Rail Station in London
Getty
UK news in pictures 27 June 2021 People walk along Regent Street in central London during a #FreedomToDance march organised by Save Our Scene, in protest against the government’s perceived disregard for the live music industry throughout the coronavirus pandemic
PA
UK news in pictures 26 June 2021 A pair of marchers in a Trans Pride rally share a smile in Soho
Angela Christofilou/The Independent
UK news in pictures 25 June 2021 Tim Duckworth during the Long Jump in the decathlon during day one of the Muller British Athletics Championships at Manchester Regional Arena
PA
UK news in pictures 24 June 2021 A member of staff poses with the work 'The Death of Cash' by XCopy at the 'CryptOGs: The Pioneers of NFT Art' auction at Bonhams auction house in London
EPA
UK news in pictures 23 June 2021 Bank of England Chief Cashier Sarah John displays the new 50-pound banknote at Daunt Books in London
Bank of England via Reuters
UK news in pictures 22 June 2021 Actor Isaac Hampstead Wright sits on the newly unveiled Game of Throne's "Iron Throne" statue, in Leicester Square, in London, Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The statue is the tenth to join the trail and commemorates 10 years since the TV show first aired, as well as in anticipation for HBO's release of House of the Dragon set to be released in 2022
AP
UK news in pictures 21 June 2021 Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon receives her second dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 20 June 2021 Joyce Paton, from Peterhead, on one of the remaining snow patches on Meall a’Bhuiridh in Glencoe during the Midsummer Ski. The event, organised by the Glencoe Mountain Resort, is held every year on the weekend closest to the Summer Solstice
PA
UK news in pictures 19 June 2021 England appeal LBW during day four of their Women’s International Test match against India at the Bristol County Ground
PA
UK news in pictures 18 June 2021 Scotland fans let off flares in Leicester Square after Scotland's Euro 2020 match against England ended in a 0-0 draw
Getty
UK news in pictures 17 June 2021 Members of the Tootsie Rollers jazz band pose on the third day of the Royal Ascot horse racing meet
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 16 June 2021 A woman and child examine life-size sculptures of a herd of Asian elephants set up by the Elephant Family and The Real Elephant Collective to help educate the public on the elephants and the ways in which humans can better protect the planets biodiversity, in Green Park, central London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 15 June 2021 Hydrotherapists with Dixie, a seven-year-old Dachshund who is being treated for back problems common with the breed, in the hydrotherapy pool during a facility at Battersea Dogs and Cats Home's in Battersea, London, to view their new hydrotherapy centre
PA
UK news in pictures 14 June 2021 Scotland's David Marshall in the net after Czech Republic's Patrik Schick scored their second goal at Hampden Park
Reuters
UK news in pictures 13 June 2021 Raheem Sterling celebrates with Harry Kane after scoring England’s first goal of the Euro 2021 tournament in a match against Croatia at Wembley
Reuters
UK news in pictures 12 June 2021 Oxfam campaigners wearing costumes depicting G7 leaders pose for photographers on Swanpool Beach near Falmouth, Cornwall
EPA
UK news in pictures 11 June 2021 Members of the Vaxinol team, who are commercial, industrial and residential cleaners specialising in disinfection and decontamination, use electrostatic spray systems to deep clean the Only Fools Bar in Liverpool
PA
UK news in pictures 10 June 2021 A woman walks her dogs as the incoming tide begins to wash away the heads of G7 leaders drawn in the sand by activists on the beach at Newquay, Cornwall
AP
UK news in pictures 9 June 2021 Adam Chamberlain, 45, general manager of Big Tree pub in Sheffield, has put up over 500 flags, taking 36 hours, in preparation for Euro 2020, which kicks off this weekend
Tom Maddick / SWNS
UK news in pictures 8 June 2021
REUTERS
UK news in pictures 7 June 2021 A pedestrian wearing a face covering walks over Westminster Bridge near the Houses of Parliament in central London
AFP/Getty
UK news in pictures 6 June 2021 Isobel Salamon, founder of the Edinburgh Cinema Club, poses alongside the Leith Trainspotting murals in Quality Yard, Leith, Edinburgh, for the programme launch of the Cinescapes Festival which starts on July 4 with a Trainspotting 1 and 2 double bill
PA
UK news in pictures 5 June 2021 A long exposure photograph captures the rotation of the earth as the stars blur into circles over Knowlton church ruins in Dorset
Nick Lucas/SWNS
UK news in pictures 4 June 2021 Balloonists take flight during the opening of the Midlands Air Festival in Alcester, Warwickshire
PA
UK news in pictures 3 June 2021 Members of the Household Cavalry during the Major General's annual inspection of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment in Hyde Park, London
PA
UK news in pictures 2 June 2021 Hannah Vitos of the Blenheim Art Foundation, poses for a photograph next to artist Ai Weiwei's Gilded Cage (2017) sculpture in the grounds of Blenheim Palace in Woodstock, Britain
Reuters
UK news in pictures 1 June 2021 People swim in the Sky Pool, a transparent swimming pool bridge across two exclusive residential blocks standing next to the US Embassy in Nine Elms, in London, Tuesday, June 1, 2021
AP
UK news in pictures 31 May 2021 People enjoy the hot weather at Brighton beach
Reuters
UK news in pictures 30 May 2021 People venture into the sea as they enjoy themselves during a hot day on Brighton Beach
AP
UK news in pictures 29 May 2021 Swimmers at the Stonehaven Open Air Pool in Aberdeenshire, which reopens after lockdown restrictions were eased
PA
UK news in pictures 28 May 2021 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures as he meets Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at Downing Street in London
REUTERS
Setting out the metric by which he wants his agenda to be judged, he will say: “We will have made progress in levelling up when we have begun to raise living standards, spread opportunity, improved our public services and restored people’s sense of pride in their community.”
But research economist Ben Zaranko, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told The Independent that change on this scale could take decades to materialise.
“The UK is one of the more regionally unequal countries in the industrial world, perhaps the most unequal,” he said. “The scale of the challenge is huge and it is not something you can just make a big speech on, throw some money around and expect change overnight.
“There are things the prime minister can do in the short term to make places nicer to live in – renovating high streets, building facilities and so on. That can be achieved relatively quickly with centralised pots of money like the Towns Fund.
“But that stuff isn’t going to deal with the deeper, more structural inequalities that are driving differential living standards across the country. Those are things that I don’t think you can make much progress on in the course of a parliament. It’s deep-seated economic changes in areas like education, skills training, transport connectivity and so on which could take decades to complete.”
Research suggested that the perception that certain areas had been “left behind” was driven in part by austerity imposed over the past decade of Tory-led governments, he said.
“The prime minister’s talk about levelling up does jar a little in that context,” he said.
“Spending by local authorities on cultural facilities has fallen by about 50 per cent in real terms since 2010, spending on planning by 60 per cent. It’s all very well him saying that he’s going to turn the taps on, but part of the reason why these things are an issue is because they have been squeezed for the last decade.”
The director of the Centre for Progressive Policy, Charlotte Alldritt, said that recent policy decisions – like the allocation of just ￡1.4bn to an educational catch-up programme costed at ￡15bn by the man appointed to devise it – cast doubt on whether Mr Johnson was committed to the “long haul” of spreading equality.
“The scale of the challenge is vast,” Ms Alldritt told The Independent. “This has been decades in the making. We have very deep and entrenched health, wealth, income and education inequalities in our society which hold back the economy and hold back people’s life chances.
“The prime minister could start looking at the foundations for addressing this, but I don’t think he will. I think the government is very much motivated by generating clear tangible results over the next 18 months before a spring 2023 election, which means ‘quick wins’ on things like high streets and leisure facilities.
“Tackling the fundamental issues on a scale which people would actually notice would be a very, very difficult task which would take much longer. I’m expecting to see a fragmented approach that doesn’t live up to the scale of the challenge. The levelling up agenda does have potential, but unless it is really gripped more strategically, it will fall short.”