Libya is at an important turning point towards stability. There is greater international recognition, that reconciliation is the only way to restore peace in Libya. The UN Security Council strongly supported the plan of UN Special Envoy for Libya, Ghassan Salameh, which includes drafting a new constitution for referendum, followed by legislative and presidential elections before July 2018. There are also efforts being made by State Council and the Libyan House of Representatives to bring the various Libyan parties together, through a final amendment to Skhirat agreement, acceptable to the two poles of power in eastern and western Libya.
On the other hand, for the first time Libyan forces appear more crystallized and clear in presenting themselves and their demands. Haftar confirms his control over the majority of Libyan territory, including eastern and southern areas. He affirms his right for a considerable share in shaping the future of Libya as he presents the force that has defeated terrorism and helped recovering the Libyan state.
Currently, Al-Sarraj's government (GNA) seeks to prove itself as a reliable and efficient partner to Europe and particularly Italy in fighting illegal migration. It supports the so-called "ISIS Fighting Operation Room" (IFOR), or the "new Libyan army", which is made of former army officers and volunteers called to support forces, backed by the Salafist militia group “Wadi Brigade”. On October 6, IFOR has declared the liberation of Sabratha city, 70 kilometers west of Tripoli. The following week, on October 12, Al-Sarraj visited the city. The illegal immigration mafia, led by al-Dibbashi, nicknamed "al-Amo" and his militia who controlled the city, was crashed. Sabratha has long been considered the main bastion for exporting illegal immigrants as it is the nearest point to Europe. Since the EU-Turkey agreement of 2016 to close the crossings in the Aegean Sea, Sabratha has become the main gateway and departure point for the vast majority of illegal migrants.
Meanwhile, Misurata remains the main challenge for national reconciliation. Despite the fact that it contains several armed forces including Muslim Brotherhood, the opposition of Gaddafi and ISIS, under various leaders, notably Khalifa al-Ghaweel (Muslim Brotherhood), Ahmed al-Halbouz, Salim Jouha, Suleiman Fortieh, Salah Padi, Suleiman Zubayh, along with an ISIS militia. Those forces are compatible among themselves on a range of demands. They all refuse Haftar, demanding an effective share of power and maintaining all their privileges. As well as compensation for losses caused by the former regime.
In such critical moment, shaping Libyan future and power structure within it, each Libyan party seeks to have an international or regional patron. Within this context, the importance of Russia's role is highlighted. During August and September of this year, a number of high-ranking Libyan politicians visited the Russian capital, including Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), Mohammed al-Dairi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Provisional Government, Ahmad Al Mismary, the LNA spokesman, Ahmed Maiteeq, deputy head of the Presidential Council, the Deputy PM of the GNA.
Haftar is counting on Moscow not only to acquire weapons he needs, but as an international backer, politically supportive in the equation of power and authority in Libya and as a balancer against the West. Haftar and his supporters trust Russia as fair and honest international power. They believe that if Russia stood firmly against the West in 2011, using "veto" on Security Council resolutions No. 1970 and 1973, the fate of Libya would change dramatically. United States and NATO wouldn't have such a free hand to interfere and destroy the Libyan state and society and made it vulnerable to chaos and terrorism.
Meanwhile, the Government of National Accord (GNA) leading figures are heading to Moscow to neutralize Russia's possible role, eliminate Russia's support for Haftar and to marginalize his role in the future of Libya, preventing the Syrian scenario in Libya.
Russia is key international actor and its presence in the Libyan scene is an important guarantee for a fair settlement for Libyan dilemma that preserves the Libyan state and fulfills the aspirations of Libyan people for peace and security.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.