THE US corn-growing season got off to a shaky start as cool, wet weather kept the planting pace among the slowest in history, but the yield outlooks are positive early on with above-average conditions, particularly in top-growing states.

       The US Department of Agri-culture’s (USDA) statistics service on Monday rated 73% of the US corn crop in good or excellent health as of Sunday, well above the average analyst expectation for 68%.

       That is better than the year-ago 72% and the week’s five-year average of 70%, and it suggests high yield potential as of now. Strong yields could help offset this year’s lighter US corn plantings, which would go a long way considering the tight stock predictions for the upcoming year.

       High crop ratings can easily disappear if poor weather surfaces, and 2012 is a perfect example. Planting was early and 77% of the corn crop was initially in good or excellent shape before widespread drought pushed that score below 30% by late July.

       But a massive drought is not required for so-so results following a great start. The 2015 harvest was decent but by no means great, although 74% of the corn was good or excellent at the start. Bouts of moderately unfavorable weather in the summer limited yield, and that scenario cannot be ruled out this year given the date.

       USDA’s crop conditions consider only the portion of the crop that has emerged, which as of Sunday was 78% for corn. That is ahead of the five-year average emergence of 70% in the week where initial corn conditions are published, though it is below the five-year average for the date of 81%.

       That means a larger-than-normal portion of the crop has gone into initial assessments this year. However, just 22% of the North Dakota corn is emerged and Minnesota is 20 percentage points below average at 66%, likely driven by northwestern Minnesota, so these areas should be watched for changes.An initial corn condition score of 73% is substantially better than in other years where planting was severely delayed. The next-best was 63% in the same week in 2013, when the crop was 74% emerged.

       Much of the Corn Belt started planting late this year, but top producers like Iowa and Illinois finally got a great window for planting in mid-May and the pace caught up to averages later in the month. Those areas are now doing very well and are supporting the strong health ratings.As of Sunday, some 86% of corn in Iowa was good or excellent, ten percentage points above the date’s recent average, and 81% in Illinois was in the same condition, ahead of average by 16 points.

       Ratings work the other way, too. Only 65% of the corn was initially considered good or excellent in 2017, but record yields were eventually realised. Just 62% of US corn was good or excellent at the beginning of last August, though national yield set another record in 2021.US corn began at 76% good-to-excellent in late May last year, the second-best start since 2018’s initial rating of 79%. — Reuters

       Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.