(CNN)New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said recently that he would make a decision on whether to run for Senate in 2022 "in the next few weeks."
That decision has implications well beyond the Granite State, and could well be an early tipping point for both parties as they look to the midterm elections and the fight for the Senate majority.
Remember -- as Joe Manchin certainly does -- that each party controls 50 Senate seats, with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote the only thing keeping Democrats in control.
Which means that every single senator matters hugely. And is why Sununu's choice matters so much.
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If he runs, he immediately becomes the best recruit in the country for Republicans -- a popular sitting governor with a famous last name. (Sununu's dad was New Hampshire's governor in the 1980s and his brother represented the state in the Senate.)
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If Sununu takes a pass, Republicans will still target Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, since she won by just 1,000 votes in 2016 -- the same year that Hillary Clinton carried the state over Donald Trump by fewer than 3,000 votes.
Hassan would start a race against any of the non-Sununu contenders ahead and favored to win, but a recent University of New Hampshire poll showed Sununu at 45% to Hassan's 42%, within the poll's margin of error.
Which is why every politico -- in both parties -- is waiting to hear what Sununu decides. (Sidebar: The current thinking is that he is likely to get into the race.)
If he does run, then a) New Hampshire will be the marquee Senate race of the 2022 election and b) Republicans will be a step closer to retaking the majority.
The Point : In a 50-50 Senate, one go/no-go decision can drastically reshape the playing field. All eyes are on Sununu to see if he does just that.