Rishi Sunak has been tipped by Nigel Farage to call a summer election - but will he? (Image: GETTY)

       Rishi Sunak will not call a general election this summer for one specific reason, pollster Sir John Curtice has said - regardless of claims to the contrary by ex-Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage.

       Meanwhile a Tory strategist has named two specific dates which he believes the Prime Minister has earmarked for a nationwide poll.

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       Speaking in advance of Thursday’s local elections, Sir John said he was planning to look at three key factors.

       Firstly, he suggested the local election results “may be somewhat flattering to the Tories” given they were “doing better in places where Reform UK are not standing”. The eurosceptic party, led by Richard Tice, was not standing in most areas outside of London, Sir Sir pointed out.

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       He continued: “Another thing I'm looking out for is whether or not there's anti-Conservative tactical voting.

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       Pollster Sir John Curtice is Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde (Image: GETTY)

       “And the third is whether or not their vote is going down more strongly in places where they were previously strongest.”

       Pointing out that he was not making predictions, but was rather assessing the political landscape as it was currently, Sir John said: “They provide us further evidence as to what is the mood of the public, but then you have to compare local elections to local elections because not everybody votes in the local elections in the same way as they do in the general election.

       “You certainly can't extrapolate straight off from one to the other. But if you compare local elections with local elections, you get an idea.

       “We will also be looking to see whether or not the Conservatives are indeed in a weaker position than they were 12 months ago, which is what the polls have been telling us.”

       In theory Rishi Sunak could wait until as late as January 28, 2025 (Image: Getty)

       Mr Farage, who is himself Reform’s honorary president, weighed in on the timing of the general election on his GB News show last week.

       Speaking after Mr Sunak’s Rwanda Bill was finally ratified by Parliament, Mr Farage said he had “changed his mind” and now believed a summer general election was more likely than an autumn one.

       However, Sir John was highly sceptical, pointing out: “What did Rishi Sunak say in his speech?

       “He wants to get flights to Rwanda off the ground in July. If the first flight is in July, the election is not in July. QED.”

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       Given many people go on holiday in August, a general election then would be highly unlikely, pushing the date back to the autumn.

       Mark Littlewood, chairman of the Popular Conservativatism faction to which Tory MPs including Liz Truss, Mr Sunak’s predecessor in Number 10, told Express.co.uk: “It would be very weird to call an early election when you're 20 percent behind in the opinion polls. It would be very, very strange indeed.

       “It seems to me that, especially when one presumes that the results from the local elections are not going to be good, and that there's no obvious shift in public opinion, why call it when you're way, way behind? Buy yourself a bit more time.

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       “My guess is the most likely scenario is that it's either November 14 or November 24, somewhere around there, and that he announces in his leader’s speech at the Conservative Party Conference in September, that he will be departing Birmingham and going to Buckingham Palace and seeking a dissolution to Parliament.

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       “By that time, he's more or less run out although I don't completely rule out that he goes all the way to January 28 of next year.

       “It would be a bit weird because they would be a bit of campaigning over Christmas, but you could almost start the election campaign on January 2 and go to January 28.

       “I think by the way, that though very long that is still more likely than going in the summer.”

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