TOKYO – Japanese leader Fumio Kishida will resign as prime minister after a successor is chosen in a ruling party election in September, he announced on Aug 14, sending shockwaves through the political system.

       The 67-year-old’s decision not to seek re-election in the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) internal polls paves the way for a heated contest to succeed him.

       As the LDP is Japan’s ruling party, its president is by default the prime minister. Mr Kishida’s decision means he will renounce office by October after three years in power.

       The polling date, which will be finalised by an LDP electoral committee on Aug 20, is believed to be between Sept 20 and 29, according to local media.

       The beleaguered Mr Kishida has fallen out of favour with the public over his response to political scandals that he inherited from previous administrations but which came to light only under his watch.

       Growing economic pressure and rising costs of living have left many Japanese feeling worse off than before.

       And compounding matters are perceptions that Mr Kishida is not a natural orator and political animal, unlike the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who survived scandals to become Japan’s longest-serving leader.

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       Mr Kishida’s Cabinet approval ratings have stubbornly stayed in the 20 per cent range for months – one poll pegged him as Japan’s most unpopular leader since 1947.

       He also finds himself increasingly isolated within the LDP after burning bridges in his handling of a political slush funds scandal. Perceptions are rife that he sacrificed rival factions to save his own skin.

       The powerful Lower House, with a maximum term of four years, must be dissolved for a general election by October 2025, while the fixed-term Upper House must go to a vote in July 2025.

       “It is necessary to present a new LDP to the public,” Mr Kishida told a news conference on Aug 14. “The most obvious way to do that, to clearly demonstrate that the LDP is willing to change, is for me to step down.”

       Vowing to “give my all until my very last day as PM” and beyond as a “rank-and-file member”, he added: “Politics is possible only with the people’s trust, and I am making this difficult decision with the strong desire to move political reform forward.”

       He added: “Once the new LDP leader is chosen, there must be no mainstream or outsider factions. I want my successor to form a true dream team based on unity, policy ability and execution power.” He also said that he wanted to “draw a line in the sand” of the scandals that blew up under his watch.

       Mr Kishida used the 20-minute news conference to look back at his time in office, portraying himself as a reformist who successfully broke Japan out of a deflationary funk and enabled it to rediscover its animal spirits.

       He also cited policies to drastically raise defence spending, and the launch of a Children and Families Agency to tackle the fertility crisis.

       But Professor Mikitaka Masuyama, a political scientist at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, told The Straits Times: “Unfortunately, he claims to have done many things but many ordinary people do not feel the impact. On the other hand, it is very clear that unethical politicians have been pocketing money.”

       The LDP has had almost uninterrupted rule over Japan since its founding in 1955. But recent media surveys, including one by the Japan News Network on Aug 3 and 4, show the public to be evenly split on whether there should be regime change.

       The party has also lost in by-elections in recent months – including the conservative fiefdom of Shimane – sparking a clear sense of crisis within the party.

       A mid-ranked lawmaker, who was sharing observations with ST, said that Japan tends to see political upheavals in 15-year cycles.

       The lawmaker noted that it was in 2009 that the LDP was ousted by the opposition and before that, in 1994, when major political reforms were enacted to eradicate rampant corruption and pork-barrel initiatives.

       “There has been so much distrust among the Japanese public, and the natural conclusion is that the time is ripe for a similar big-impact event,” the lawmaker said on condition of anonymity due to political sensitivities. “We must prove to the people that politics is changing.”

       Mr Kishida’s political honeymoon ended with the assassination of Mr Abe in 2022, when there was public displeasure over his decision to allow a state funeral without a Diet debate.

       The murder also revealed the LDP’s longstanding cosy ties with the controversial Unification Church, whose allegedly coercive practices are said to have bestowed financial hardship and even bankruptcies on the families of followers.

       Then came the political funding scandal that erupted in December 2023 that led to the indictment of three Diet members, as well as party faction accountants, including from the defunct Kishida faction.

       Punishments were meted out to 39 lawmakers from rival factions, but Mr Kishida’s allies got away scot-free, resulting in accusations that he was more interested in finding scapegoats.

       Political analysts told ST that Mr Kishida had his back to the wall, and was at the end of his tether, having missed opportunities to consolidate his power through a snap election.

       Dr Koichi Nakano of Sophia University noted that stepping down was an astute move as it would save him from the likely ignominy of being ousted were he to take a gamble in contesting the September election.

       Mr Kishida, who succeeded Mr Yoshihide Suga in October 2021, is now the eighth-longest serving post-war prime minister in a country known for its revolving door of leaders, having been in office for 1,046 days as at Aug 14.

       But this record would be tainted if he were to become only the second incumbent party leader to be kicked out, after Mr Takeo Fukuda lost to Mr Masayoshi Ohira in 1978.

       “He let other people take the fall, so he’s not going to be very popular with a majority of the LDP members. Why would they want to give him another three years?” Dr Nakano said.

       Stepping down allows Mr Kishida to retain dignity and influence, he added, paving the way for him to be a power broker who can strike deals with shadow shoguns – like Mr Suga or former PM Taro Aso – and sway the direction of his succession race.

       Experts believe that the LDP’s factions have disbanded only on paper, and that lawmakers will still be more likely to coalesce behind candidates with strong political backing.

       “The party faction system is too institutionalised in Japan, and there are incentives for politicians to stick in a group. Whatever its name or format, the dynamic remains,” Prof Masuyama said.

       “And if Kishida can remain influential behind the scenes, then he will continue to have a say in politics and policy.”