Rising prices

       CONSUMER price index (CPI), leading index and coincident index will highlight this week’s economic calendar.

       Analysts expect the headline inflation rate to remain elevated due to the rise in fuel and food prices.

       Inflation rate is expected to beat 3.2% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

       Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to release its international reserve figure as at March 15 tomorrow.

       The international reserves of Bank Negara amounted to US$115.8bil (RM486bil) as of Feb 28.

       Inflation reports

       SINGAPORE, South Korea and Japan are expected to release their inflation data for February this week.

       ING says although the data covers February, it could see the initial impact of the ongoing conflict in eastern Europe, which began at the end of last month.

       It said the South Korea producer price index (PPI) and Tokyo consumer price index (CPI) would move up further, but both would remain significantly lower than the global and regional trends.

       Bloomberg estimates Singapore’s headline inflation at 4.1% year-on-year.

       ING said inflation in Singapore would likely accelerate further from January’s 4% given the supply chain bottlenecks and rising commodity prices.

       It would likely see core inflation crest 3%, which could prod more aggressive actions by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

       China LPR

       ACCORDING to a Bloomberg poll, nine out of 16 economists expect the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) to be unchanged at 3.7%.

       Three economists expect it to be lowered to 3.65% while four expect it to be lower to 3.6%.

       The benchmark one-year LPR has fallen by 15 basis points (bps) since December 2021. UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expect it to be lowered further by another 15bps in the first half of 2022 to 3.55%, although not necessarily at the March meeting.

       Flash PMIs

       THE March flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) are due across the United States, Britain, Japan and Australia.

       IHS Markit said February PMIs signalled a revival of economic growth as the Omicron wave faded and business optimism improved.

       However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a steep rise in commodity prices and further supply chain issues.

       The flash PMI data, typically based on 85% to 90% of total PMI survey responses each month, will shed some light on conditions across demand, output, prices and sentiment.