Meteorological winter began Wednesday and many of us even saw our first flakes of snow earlier this week. But what about the weeks and months ahead? Will this winter deliver some serious snowfall? Or will it be like most of recent years, with rather underwhelming amounts?
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We issued our winter outlook on Nov. 10 and predicted that we’ll see below-average snowfall for the fifth time in the last six winters. Specifically, we called for eight to 12 inches to fall at Reagan National Airport. The latest 30-year average at airport is 13.7 inches.
Brace for a wild winter in Washington, but it’s no thrill for snow lovers
But we’re far from the only outlet that issues seasonal snow predictions. Since issuing our winter outlook, we’ve rounded up the snow predictions from more than 30 other forecasters.
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The sad news, if you like snow, is that there’s a near consensus for below-average amounts.
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The reason pretty much everyone is on the same page stems from the La Ni？a conditions prevailing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During La Ni？as, the storm track across the Lower 48 states tends to pass north and west of the Mid-Atlantic, drawing mild air into the region. So most storms tend to produce more rain than snow.
But not every La Ni？a is the same. In fact, the winter of 1995-96 featured La Ni？a conditions and one of Washington’s snowiest seasons on record. Of course, that was an outlier but it shows there’s a possibility that the conventional wisdom could turn out wrong.
NOAA calls for stormy winter across the northern U.S. but mild, dry weather elsewhere
Below, find a summary of various snowfall predictions from forecasters in private industry and the news media as well as Capital Weather Gang contributors. We also summarize the predictions made by Capital Weather Gang readers who participated in our winter snowfall prediction contest. All of these predictions are for total amounts at Reagan National Airport.
Snow forecasts from private sector meteorologists
Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell: Near-average snowfall Todd Crawford, Atmospheric G2 (formerly WSI): 9.5 inches Judah Cohen, Atmospheric Environmental Research: 11.6 inches Paul Dorian, CTFV (formerly Perspecta Weather): 15 inches Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather: 8.7 inches Matt Rogers, Commodity Weather Group: 8.5 inches
Snow forecasts from TV station weather teams
NBC4: seven to 13 inches FOX5: five to 13 inches ABC7: seven to 14 inches WUSA9: five to 10 inches
Snow forecasts from Capital Weather Gang contributors
Among Capital Weather Gang contributors, snowfall forecasts ranged from four to 22 inches, with an average of 9.7 inches.
Snow forecasts from Capital Weather Gang readers
Nearly 900 Capital Weather Gang readers entered our competition to predict how much snow will fall. Predictions ranged from 0.2 to 70 inches, with an average of 12.2 inches and median of 9.8 inches. Reader ideas closely tracked the forecasts of professionals. But maybe they were led astray. Only time will tell.