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EMS prepare the ambulance at the U of A Hospital in Edmonton on May 7.
JASON FRANSON/The Globe and Mail
The Alberta government’s recent approach to COVID-19, ending virtually all public-health measures over the summer and refusing to change course as infections soared, was based on an optimistic theory: that vaccines had so dramatically changed the pandemic that the province could weather a significant spike in new cases without worrying about hospitals becoming overwhelmed.
Premier Jason Kenney and his Chief Medical Officer of Health, Deena Hinshaw, pointed to data out of Britain as proof that infections had become “decoupled” from severe outcomes; in other words, a spike in COVID-19 cases would no longer result in a similar increase in hospital admissions. But Mr. Kenney was forced last week to admit those predictions did not come to pass in Alberta – a miscalculation that now threatens to push hospital admissions past the peak of any previous wave and bring the health care system closer to a breaking point.
The experience in Alberta, where the government has prided itself on imposing fewer pandemic restrictions than other provinces and recently urged the public to stop viewing COVID-19 as an emergency, could serve as a warning to other governments thinking of abandoning public-health measures altogether. Experts say there are still too few people vaccinated – not just in Alberta, which has the lowest immunization rates in the country, but elsewhere in Canada – to abandon public-health measures and act as if the pandemic is over.
To avoid 15,000 daily COVID-19 cases next month, Canada urged to increase vaccination rates, uphold public health measures
Cryderman: Alberta government lack of foresight has them stumbling to stave off fourth wave of COVID-19
In Alberta, that realization prompted the government to act on Friday, announcing the return of a provincewide mask mandate and a curfew on liquor sales at bars and restaurants. The government is also paying anyone who has yet to get their first or second dose of a vaccine $100 to finally get a shot. The government previously delayed plans to end widespread testing, contact tracing and mandatory isolation.
The situation in the province’s hospitals has been rapidly deteriorating. Hospital and intensive-care admissions more than doubled in the past two weeks and newly released modelling shows those numbers could surpass their previous peaks within weeks. On Friday, the province’s ICU beds were 95-per-cent full. Alberta has among the highest per capita COVID-19 infection and hospital admission rates in the country.
Mr. Kenney had repeatedly pointed to Britain to defend Alberta’s approach. When infections in the UK surged over the summer, hospital admissions did not increase by the same degree. Hospital admissions increased in July and August, but government data show they have so far stayed far below any of the previous peaks.
“Unfortunately, this has not been Alberta’s experience,” Mr. Kenney said on Friday.
“Vaccines do decouple individuals from severe outcomes dramatically on an individual level, but because of the large group of people who have no vaccine protection, we have seen the Delta variant spread widely and cause severe outcomes at much greater rates in unvaccinated adults.”
Dean Karlen, a professor at the University of Victoria who is part of the B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group, said hospital admissions in Alberta have been increasing slightly faster than they have in previous waves. The modelling group, which has also been releasing projections for Alberta, had been warning this would happen.
“There wasn’t really much of a basis to assume this decoupling would happen,” Prof. Karlen said.
He said it has been clear for some time that Britain was an outlier. Increases in infections in other jurisdictions in Europe and the United States have been followed by significant – and predictable – pressure on their health care systems, he said.
Prof. Karlen also pointed out that most new infections are among unvaccinated people, so there was no reason to assume they wouldn’t end up in hospital at the same rates as they have before.
“The situation really hasn’t changed dramatically in any respect to suggest that hospitalization demands won’t be as high as they were before per case,” he said.
COVID-19 hospital admissions in Alberta
ICU
Non-ICU
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Apr. 2020 July Oct. Jan. 2021 Apr. July 0 0 THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ALBERTA HEALTH
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Date ICU Non-ICU 2020-03-08 0 0 2020-03-09 0 1 2020-03-10 0 1 2020-03-11 0 1 2020-03-12 1 1 2020-03-13 2 3 2020-03-14 2 3 2020-03-15 2 3 2020-03-16 2 4 2020-03-17 3 4 2020-03-18 3 9 2020-03-19 8 7 2020-03-20 9 7 2020-03-21 10 9 2020-03-22 10 10 2020-03-23 10 12 2020-03-24 11 18 2020-03-25 11 22 2020-03-26 11 23 2020-03-27 13 22 2020-03-28 14 24 2020-03-29 15 26 2020-03-30 17 26 2020-03-31 18 25 2020-04-01 20 22 2020-04-02 20 23 2020-04-03 19 26 2020-04-04 20 27 2020-04-05 20 24 2020-04-06 18 27 2020-04-07 16 30 2020-04-08 16 33 2020-04-09 15 35 2020-04-10 15 37 2020-04-11 15 37 2020-04-12 15 35 2020-04-13 14 35 2020-04-14 15 33 2020-04-15 12 43 2020-04-16 13 45 2020-04-17 14 49 2020-04-18 16 40 2020-04-19 19 43 2020-04-20 18 44 2020-04-21 20 41 2020-04-22 19 45 2020-04-23 18 47 2020-04-24 21 49 2020-04-25 19 51 2020-04-26 21 54 2020-04-27 20 57 2020-04-28 23 56 2020-04-29 22 64 2020-04-30 22 67 2020-05-01 23 59 2020-05-02 19 64 2020-05-03 21 62 2020-05-04 21 61 2020-05-05 20 64 2020-05-06 19 60 2020-05-07 18 60 2020-05-08 16 57 2020-05-09 14 50 2020-05-10 12 53 2020-05-11 11 53 2020-05-12 11 54 2020-05-13 9 52 2020-05-14 9 48 2020-05-15 9 43 2020-05-16 8 42 2020-05-17 9 41 2020-05-18 9 41 2020-05-19 8 37 2020-05-20 7 37 2020-05-21 6 36 2020-05-22 6 33 2020-05-23 7 28 2020-05-24 6 27 2020-05-25 5 28 2020-05-26 5 28 2020-05-27 4 27 2020-05-28 4 28 2020-05-29 5 28 2020-05-30 6 21 2020-05-31 6 18 2020-06-01 6 18 2020-06-02 6 19 2020-06-03 6 14 2020-06-04 5 13 2020-06-05 5 13 2020-06-06 5 13 2020-06-07 5 15 2020-06-08 5 14 2020-06-09 5 11 2020-06-10 4 12 2020-06-11 4 12 2020-06-12 5 15 2020-06-13 5 13 2020-06-14 6 14 2020-06-15 6 19 2020-06-16 7 20 2020-06-17 7 21 2020-06-18 6 24 2020-06-19 6 24 2020-06-20 7 20 2020-06-21 6 22 2020-06-22 6 20 2020-06-23 7 21 2020-06-24 8 19 2020-06-25 8 22 2020-06-26 8 24 2020-06-27 8 24 2020-06-28 9 23 2020-06-29 9 23 2020-06-30 8 24 2020-07-01 8 22 2020-07-02 9 24 2020-07-03 8 30 2020-07-04 7 39 2020-07-05 6 40 2020-07-06 6 41 2020-07-07 7 40 2020-07-08 7 34 2020-07-09 9 32 2020-07-10 8 35 2020-07-11 11 33 2020-07-12 13 33 2020-07-13 13 43 2020-07-14 7 54 2020-07-15 8 56 2020-07-16 15 53 2020-07-17 16 59 2020-07-18 15 60 2020-07-19 17 59 2020-07-20 16 69 2020-07-21 18 74 2020-07-22 21 73 2020-07-23 21 69 2020-07-24 16 72 2020-07-25 16 62 2020-07-26 17 62 2020-07-27 15 64 2020-07-28 16 60 2020-07-29 17 60 2020-07-30 16 59 2020-07-31 17 58 2020-08-01 18 53 2020-08-02 17 55 2020-08-03 22 50 2020-08-04 21 44 2020-08-05 19 43 2020-08-06 18 37 2020-08-07 17 37 2020-08-08 18 36 2020-08-09 15 36 2020-08-10 15 34 2020-08-11 14 33 2020-08-12 13 36 2020-08-13 13 35 2020-08-14 13 33 2020-08-15 13 35 2020-08-16 11 39 2020-08-17 14 39 2020-08-18 15 37 2020-08-19 15 35 2020-08-20 12 32 2020-08-21 12 36 2020-08-22 10 37 2020-08-23 10 38 2020-08-24 8 40 2020-08-25 8 43 2020-08-26 8 45 2020-08-27 8 43 2020-08-28 9 38 2020-08-29 9 35 2020-08-30 11 38 2020-08-31 11 41 2020-09-01 10 43 2020-09-02 10 40 2020-09-03 11 42 2020-09-04 13 40 2020-09-05 13 39 2020-09-06 11 39 2020-09-07 10 39 2020-09-08 7 43 2020-09-09 7 38 2020-09-10 6 37 2020-09-11 6 38 2020-09-12 7 38 2020-09-13 7 35 2020-09-14 9 40 2020-09-15 8 39 2020-09-16 8 40 2020-09-17 8 44 2020-09-18 9 50 2020-09-19 11 49 2020-09-20 12 49 2020-09-21 12 49 2020-09-22 13 49 2020-09-23 15 50 2020-09-24 15 54 2020-09-25 16 55 2020-09-26 16 53 2020-09-27 14 58 2020-09-28 12 58 2020-09-29 12 58 2020-09-30 13 61 2020-10-01 15 59 2020-10-02 16 63 2020-10-03 16 64 2020-10-04 14 62 2020-10-05 16 63 2020-10-06 15 73 2020-10-07 13 79 2020-10-08 11 80 2020-10-09 12 79 2020-10-10 14 84 2020-10-11 16 85 2020-10-12 13 90 2020-10-13 13 90 2020-10-14 14 93 2020-10-15 9 108 2020-10-16 11 106 2020-10-17 12 110 2020-10-18 15 105 2020-10-19 14 105 2020-10-20 14 99 2020-10-21 16 91 2020-10-22 13 93 2020-10-23 14 91 2020-10-24 16 91 2020-10-25 15 94 2020-10-26 15 101 2020-10-27 19 102 2020-10-28 17 113 2020-10-29 24 116 2020-10-30 23 112 2020-10-31 23 118 2020-11-01 27 124 2020-11-02 27 126 2020-11-03 31 126 2020-11-04 31 127 2020-11-05 31 139 2020-11-06 32 146 2020-11-07 34 149 2020-11-08 37 154 2020-11-09 41 165 2020-11-10 43 172 2020-11-11 50 174 2020-11-12 53 193 2020-11-13 55 206 2020-11-14 57 214 2020-11-15 56 227 2020-11-16 58 234 2020-11-17 59 246 2020-11-18 61 261 2020-11-19 59 286 2020-11-20 58 297 2020-11-21 62 294 2020-11-22 65 299 2020-11-23 66 317 2020-11-24 74 323 2020-11-25 85 351 2020-11-26 86 363 2020-11-27 89 374 2020-11-28 94 384 2020-11-29 95 400 2020-11-30 102 419 2020-12-01 100 451 2020-12-02 101 465 2020-12-03 100 488 2020-12-04 103 498 2020-12-05 106 520 2020-12-06 113 541 2020-12-07 115 580 2020-12-08 128 579 2020-12-09 127 597 2020-12-10 127 599 2020-12-11 128 598 2020-12-12 136 569 2020-12-13 138 591 2020-12-14 135 625 2020-12-15 142 632 2020-12-16 140 644 2020-12-17 145 647 2020-12-18 154 636 2020-12-19 152 637 2020-12-20 153 657 2020-12-21 152 670 2020-12-22 144 692 2020-12-23 150 702 2020-12-24 151 697 2020-12-25 147 689 2020-12-26 141 705 2020-12-27 150 714 2020-12-28 154 726 2020-12-29 152 751 2020-12-30 144 761 2020-12-31 141 751 2021-01-01 147 730 2021-01-02 142 747 2021-01-03 139 751 2021-01-04 141 761 2021-01-05 142 738 2021-01-06 140 707 2021-01-07 139 679 2021-01-08 135 663 2021-01-09 132 640 2021-01-10 136 657 2021-01-11 133 664 2021-01-12 137 653 2021-01-13 135 631 2021-01-14 127 637 2021-01-15 123 616 2021-01-16 123 594 2021-01-17 121 596 2021-01-18 122 601 2021-01-19 125 600 2021-01-20 121 579 2021-01-21 117 553 2021-01-22 115 533 2021-01-23 111 504 2021-01-24 114 488 2021-01-25 108 485 2021-01-26 109 466 2021-01-27 111 455 2021-01-28 108 453 2021-01-29 102 445 2021-01-30 101 426 2021-01-31 102 419 2021-02-01 96 428 2021-02-02 93 407 2021-02-03 92 384 2021-02-04 88 356 2021-02-05 83 340 2021-02-06 80 324 2021-02-07 77 322 2021-02-08 78 319 2021-02-09 75 311 2021-02-10 68 291 2021-02-11 63 269 2021-02-12 60 256 2021-02-13 56 257 2021-02-14 55 254 2021-02-15 53 269 2021-02-16 57 268 2021-02-17 53 263 2021-02-18 54 249 2021-02-19 50 239 2021-02-20 54 226 2021-02-21 53 239 2021-02-22 52 241 2021-02-23 58 222 2021-02-24 57 216 2021-02-25 56 216 2021-02-26 50 217 2021-02-27 45 208 2021-02-28 48 214 2021-03-01 50 208 2021-03-02 44 210 2021-03-03 43 204 2021-03-04 41 211 2021-03-05 40 213 2021-03-06 38 206 2021-03-07 34 218 2021-03-08 35 224 2021-03-09 36 212 2021-03-10 37 217 2021-03-11 38 219 2021-03-12 36 218 2021-03-13 36 213 2021-03-14 41 219 2021-03-15 41 218 2021-03-16 42 220 2021-03-17 42 224 2021-03-18 46 225 2021-03-19 47 227 2021-03-20 46 229 2021-03-21 46 234 2021-03-22 52 238 2021-03-23 51 237 2021-03-24 54 235 2021-03-25 57 224 2021-03-26 65 214 2021-03-27 62 212 2021-03-28 61 223 2021-03-29 56 238 2021-03-30 61 229 2021-03-31 58 224 2021-04-01 61 226 2021-04-02 69 225 2021-04-03 70 226 2021-04-04 76 232 2021-04-05 77 244 2021-04-06 78 246 2021-04-07 82 252 2021-04-08 83 260 2021-04-09 85 277 2021-04-10 91 292 2021-04-11 93 303 2021-04-12 91 315 2021-04-13 93 329 2021-04-14 87 331 2021-04-15 91 334 2021-04-16 92 355 2021-04-17 101 352 2021-04-18 103 363 2021-04-19 105 386 2021-04-20 114 396 2021-04-21 118 412 2021-04-22 124 431 2021-04-23 129 462 2021-04-24 139 463 2021-04-25 142 487 2021-04-26 144 499 2021-04-27 144 509 2021-04-28 150 485 2021-04-29 152 503 2021-04-30 152 498 2021-05-01 151 502 2021-05-02 150 508 2021-05-03 144 533 2021-05-04 140 524 2021-05-05 140 521 2021-05-06 142 510 2021-05-07 140 517 2021-05-08 147 513 2021-05-09 149 537 2021-05-10 155 547 2021-05-11 161 565 2021-05-12 167 549 2021-05-13 168 542 2021-05-14 170 515 2021-05-15 178 483 2021-05-16 174 496 2021-05-17 180 509 2021-05-18 182 501 2021-05-19 174 498 2021-05-20 172 473 2021-05-21 161 458 2021-05-22 158 429 2021-05-23 157 417 2021-05-24 155 412 2021-05-25 153 392 2021-05-26 149 387 2021-05-27 146 369 2021-05-28 139 341 2021-05-29 137 311 2021-05-30 131 311 2021-05-31 125 315 2021-06-01 122 318 2021-06-02 119 292 2021-06-03 109 270 2021-06-04 103 268 2021-06-05 97 268 2021-06-06 94 260 2021-06-07 85 255 2021-06-08 83 251 2021-06-09 82 230 2021-06-10 79 222 2021-06-11 74 219 2021-06-12 75 200 2021-06-13 73 202 2021-06-14 68 208 2021-06-15 67 195 2021-06-16 59 188 2021-06-17 58 185 2021-06-18 49 179 2021-06-19 52 166 2021-06-20 56 163 2021-06-21 55 153 2021-06-22 55 149 2021-06-23 51 145 2021-06-24 47 139 2021-06-25 46 139 2021-06-26 41 135 2021-06-27 38 142 2021-06-28 36 135 2021-06-29 34 130 2021-06-30 35 118 2021-07-01 33 110 2021-07-02 31 108 2021-07-03 31 105 2021-07-04 33 101 2021-07-05 32 104 2021-07-06 30 108 2021-07-07 31 97 2021-07-08 34 89 2021-07-09 34 80 2021-07-10 32 82 2021-07-11 33 75 2021-07-12 32 76 2021-07-13 32 76 2021-07-14 30 74 2021-07-15 27 80 2021-07-16 27 77 2021-07-17 27 74 2021-07-18 27 72 2021-07-19 27 69 2021-07-20 27 67 2021-07-21 26 64 2021-07-22 26 57 2021-07-23 23 61 2021-07-24 22 58 2021-07-25 21 60 2021-07-26 21 62 2021-07-27 18 67 2021-07-28 20 69 2021-07-29 19 72 2021-07-30 18 76 2021-07-31 17 75 2021-08-01 20 72 2021-08-02 23 68 2021-08-03 23 76 2021-08-04 24 80 2021-08-05 26 87 2021-08-06 26 94 2021-08-07 24 95 2021-08-08 27 104 2021-08-09 29 108 2021-08-10 32 112 2021-08-11 36 121 2021-08-12 38 122 2021-08-13 39 124 2021-08-14 44 115 2021-08-15 44 130 2021-08-16 45 142 2021-08-17 48 146 2021-08-18 44 166 2021-08-19 47 185 2021-08-20 47 201 2021-08-21 49 195 2021-08-22 54 203 2021-08-23 58 217 2021-08-24 59 243 2021-08-25 64 256 2021-08-26 73 272 2021-08-27 85 285 2021-08-28 87 305 2021-08-29 97 319 2021-08-30 106 342 2021-08-31 108 372 2021-09-01 115 384 2021-09-02 118 397
COVID-19 hospital admissions in Alberta download csv
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Jim Kellner, an infectious-disease expert and pediatrician at Alberta Children’s Hospital in Calgary, said it was a mistake to assume the British experience would be replicated in Alberta. Britain has higher vaccination rates for both first and second doses than Alberta and a higher proportion of people in that country have had COVID-19, leaving them with a level of immunity even if they aren’t vaccinated, he said.
Dr. Kellner also noted that vaccination rates in Britain are more consistent across different regions, unlike in Alberta and places in the southern United States, where there are large pockets with very low coverage.
“It was just too early [for the Alberta government] to back away,” he said.
Cynthia Carr, an epidemiologist based in Winnipeg, said vaccines are expected to “decouple” infections from hospital admissions eventually, but it was a mistake to assume that had already happened.
“Certainly, the goal of a vaccination is to drive that decoupling between infections, hospitalization and death – that would be a true sign of success,” she said. “However, in Alberta and other provinces, we still have too much of a gap in the target groups who are not vaccinated.”
Ms. Carr said that given the current hospital admission numbers, Alberta should abandon plans to end widespread testing and contact tracing at the end of the month. Dr. Hinshaw said Friday the government is looking at whether the province will end its testing program on Sept. 27 as planned, though she still downplayed the effectiveness of contact tracing.
Ms. Carr said it would be dangerous to proceed with that plan.
“I really can’t think of many ideas that would be less advisable right now,” she said. “Any move to remove accessibility, whether to vaccination or testing or information, which you would get from contact tracing, is not a good idea.”
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