A mild February and the prospect of a mild March means Washington’s famous cherry blossoms will probably bloom early this year.

       Based on our analysis of past, present and predicted weather, we’re estimating the peak bloom for the blossoms will be around March 24, or within a five-day window of March 22 and 26.

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       Over the last 30 years, peak bloom has averaged around March 31. If we look at the longer 100-year average, the average peak bloom date is a bit later, on April 3. The date has trended several days earlier in recent decades due to our warming climate.

       Japan’s Kyoto cherry blossoms peaked on earliest date in 1,200 years last year, a sign of climate change

       March 15, 1990, marks the earliest peak bloom on record while April 18, 1958, is the latest peak. Last year, peak bloom occurred on March 28.

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       Peak bloom occurs when 70 percent of the cherry blossoms flower along the Tidal Basin. If our forecast holds, peak bloom will coincide with at least the first half of the National Cherry Blossom Festival, set for March 20 to April 17.

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       Once peak bloom is declared, the blossoms can remain on cherry trees for another week or so if it’s warm and winds are light. Abnormally cold, rainy or windy weather can strip the trees of petals within a few days.

       The National Park Service will issue its own peak-bloom forecast on Tuesday at 9 a.m.

       We project a generally warm and dry March for the D.C. area

       Forecast rationale

       March temperatures are the biggest driver of our forecast for the cherry blossom peak-bloom date, as they have historically been the best indicator. When it’s much milder than average in March, the blossoms tend to peak in mid- to late March; when it’s on the chilly side, they reach their prime in early to mid-April.

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       Last year and in 2020, March temperatures were 5.6 and 3.6 degrees above normal and peak bloom occurred on the 20th and 28th of the month, respectively. In 2014 and 2015, when we had back-to-back cold Marches, the blossoms peaked later, on April 10.

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       February temperatures also play a role. We’ve seen some years where March was rather warm but a cold February delayed the onset of bud development so peak bloom held off until early April.

       This year, however, February has been mild — or about 2.5 degrees warmer than normal — with highs leaping into the 70s last week. Trees responded by releasing abnormally high levels of pollen for the time of year.

       The warm weather pattern shows little sign of easing into the first half of March.

       Early next week, highs could again surge into the 70s, really allowing the blossom buds to launch into their five-stage progression.

       Temperatures may not be quite as mild relative to normal in the second half of March but, as average highs rise into the 60s, it should help the buds steadily transform to magnificent pink and white flowery blooms.

       How the forecast could go wrong

       If model simulations are flawed and it is either much warmer or colder than they are currently projecting, the peak bloom date may need to be adjusted. The March temperature forecast becomes more uncertain in the second half of the month.

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       A sharp cold snap could push peak bloom closer to the recent average date of March 31. Alternatively, a stretch of very warm days in the 70s and 80s might mean peak bloom occurs historically early — or closer to March 20.

       Here are the odds of alternative peak bloom windows, outside our predicted range of March 22 to 26:

       Peak bloom before March 17: 5 percent Peak bloom March 17 to 21: 15 percent Peak bloom March 27 to 31: 15 percent Peak bloom April 1 to 5: 10 percent Peak boom after April 5

       How have our forecasts done historically?

       We have issued cherry blossoms forecasts since 2012 and have hit the peak bloom within our predicted window in five of 10 tries.

       Last year, we predicted a peak bloom date of April 1 or within the window between March 30 and April 3. Peak bloom occurred on March 28. X In 2020, we predicted a peak bloom date of March 27 (March 25 to 29 window), and we needed to revise it to March 22 (March 20 to 24 window). The peak was declared on March 20. X In 2019, we predicted a peak bloom date of April 3 (April 1 to 5 window), and it occurred on April 1. ？ In 2018, one of the more challenging years, we predicted a peak bloom date of March 25, and revised it twice to April 1 and then to April 10. The actual peak bloom happened on April 5. X In 2017, we predicted a peak bloom date of March 17 (March 15-19 window), and it took place on March 25. The blossoms were near peak bloom the previous week before a sudden freeze caused a delay. X In 2016, we predicted a peak bloom date of March 26 (March 24-28 window), and it was declared on March 25. ？ In 2015, we predicted a peak bloom date of April 11 (April 9-13 window), and it occurred on April 10. ？ In 2014, we predicted a peak bloom date of April 9 (April 7-11 window), and it took place on April 10. ？ In 2013, we predicted an April 5 peak bloom date (April 3-7 window), and it occurred on April 9. X In the very warm year of 2012, we predicted a peak bloom date of March 20, which turned out to be the same day peak bloom arrived. ？