(CNN)Justin Amash's move toward a presidential bid on the Libertarian Party ticket is not terribly impactful in its own right. The Michigan congressman has somewhere close to a 0% chance of winning a single state in November, much less the presidency. But his likely candidacy has set off a furious debate within the political world that centers on this question: Does Amash's candidacy make it more or less likely that President Donald Trump can win a second term in November?
There's no simple answer -- partly because of Amash's current status as man without a political country (he left the GOP and became an independent after saying Trump should be impeached) and partly due to the difficulties of calculating just how high Trump's electoral ceiling actually is.
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Let's run through both theories.
Theory No. 1: This hurts Trump!
Amash is, without a doubt, closer on the ideological spectrum to Trump than he is to former Vice President Joe Biden. Prior to being an independent, Amash was a Republican -- and a very conservative one. He has a lifetime 86% conservative score from Heritage Action and was one of just three House members to receive a perfect 100% score from the fiscally conservative Club for Growth in 2018.
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Given that, Amash's appeal -- such as it is -- will likely come from conservative Republicans, particularly those who have grown frustrated with the President's seeming lack of concern about ballooning federal spending and mounting debt and deficit issues. (Amash is one of the most outspoken members of Congress when it comes to the dangers of the US's increasing debt.)
Those Republicans most inclined to support Amash would almost certainly side with Trump if the choice was a bifurcated one between the incumbent President and Biden. After all, most of these likeliest Amash voters are more, not less conservative than Trump. And they care deeply about economic policy and the world of business. Without Amash as an option, Trump for them is clearly the better of two evils as compared to Biden.
Assuming that Amash qualifies for the ballot in all 50 states -- 2016 Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson managed to do this -- then any votes that go to Amash come directly out of Trump's total. And that is a bad thing for Trump!
Theory No. 2: This helps Trump!
The 2020 election is a straight referendum on the presidency of Donald Trump. The choice for voters has to be stark: Do you want four more years of this or do you want something else? And that "something else" in the 2020 race has to be Joe Biden -- and that's it.
Yes, Amash is, in virtually every respect other than his criticism of Trump, a conservative Republican. But there is no Republican Party aside from Trump at this point. Amash is a perfect example -- driven from his party for daring to say Trump did something wrong! Or former Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, forced into retirement because, despite sterling conservative credentials, he had the audacity to say Trump was leading the GOP down a dangerous path.
Anyone then that would consider voting for Amash is someone who has already grown deeply alienated from Trump and the broader GOP. An Amash vote is a protest vote against Trump. And a vote that would have gone to Biden -- as the "not Trump" -- if Amash wasn't on the ballot.
That's a problem because all available polling -- both nationally and in key swing states -- suggests that Trump is stuck in the low- to mid-40s, and will have a very hard time getting to 50% plus one in any of these places. ( Trump won 46.4% of the popular vote in 2016 to Hillary Clinton's 48.5%. Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, got just over 3% nationally.) Anything that brings down Trump's win number significantly below 50% -- like a semi-credible third party candidacy -- makes it more likely for Trump to get reelected.
Which side is right? Candidly, I have no idea. Both arguments have real merit to them -- and it's very hard to say which one gets closer to the actual impact Amash will have on the race.
That said, it's important to remember a point CNN's Harry Enten makes here: Unless a) the vote in a swing state or nationally is extremely close or b) Amash's third-party candidacy somehow gets real momentum behind it, the reality is that he isn't likely to have much of an impact on the race either way.
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