GEIS-新闻详情

Record vaccinations may not stop a deadly third Covid-19 wave in India

2021-06-25 00:00:00.0 海峡时报-亚洲原网页

NEW DELHI (BLOOMBERG) - Officials in New Delhi rejoiced earlier this week when India hit a single-day record by administering more than eight million Covid-19 vaccinations.

But even this unprecedented pace may not be fast enough for a country just emerging from a devastating second wave to head off a third one, experts say. They also question whether this week's push averaging about 4.6 million doses a day, up from about three million for most of the past month, can be sustained.

Despite halting all exports in April and benefiting from a huge vaccine producing industry, India has covered only 4 per cent of its vast population, putting it far behind most of the West and China, which is deploying about 20 million doses a day.

At this rate, some scientists say a third wave could arrive within months, driving fears the country may see a repeat of the recent nightmare of oxygen shortages and overwhelmed hospitals.

"I don't think the recent spurt can be maintained, given what we know of the supply situation," said Dr Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University, who also works on modelling outbreaks.

"The single-day spike seems to have been the result of a concerted effort by some states, who may have stockpiled doses for this purpose. We would need to get to about 10 million doses per day to ensure that a future wave is less potent."

Fresh jolt

India's challenges in accelerating its inoculation drive are considerable. The fewer than 100 million doses per month being currently pumped out of two local manufacturers are struggling to cover its nearly 1.4 billion people. There is also considerable hesitancy to overcome and logistical hurdles to reaching much of the countryside, where more than two-thirds of Indians live.

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Narendra Modi must hope that the record jump will be the jolt the immunisation campaign needs. This week, Dr N. K. Arora, the chair of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation in India, said as many as 220 million shots will become available starting next month.

India aims to vaccinate 10 million people a day, he said, pointing to the country's history with large childhood inoculation drives for diseases such as polio.

Still some researchers are sceptical and took to social media to criticise the sudden spurt. Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, a New Delhi-based epidemiologist and co-author of a book on India's battle against Covid-19, called it "an overzealous attempt" to hit a record that would drain limited stocks.

Health economist and adjunct professor Rijo M. Johnat at the Rajagiri College of Social Sciences in Kochi said on Twitter that "the chest-thumping must officially end now", because India does not have enough doses in the short term to continue hitting those same levels.

World's pharmacy

Construction worker wait to receive the coronavirus vaccine during a vaccination drive in Mumbai on June 16, 2021. PHOTO: AFP

The jubilation among government officials has parallels to the launch of India's coronavirus vaccine campaign in January. Hopes were so high that Mr Modi shipped out millions of shots in a short-lived bout of vaccine diplomacy and called his country "the world's pharmacy".

Mr Modi's generosity belied a stuttering roll-out at home as lower-than-anticipated batches came off the production lines at the Serum Institute of India Ltd., the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, and Bharat Biotech International, India's other main provider.