Could Russia’s attempts to establish closer ties with countries of Southeast Asia or Indochina become an issue in its relationship with China? Putin’s visits to Vietnam and South Korea will focus on certain infrastructure projects, certain easing of tensions in bilateral relations and by no means taking any steps that could undermine the major bilateral treaty with China.

       The Asia-Pacific region has become quite vibrant in recent years as the region’s nations increasingly assert themselves as new global centers by proactively working within various regional integration organizations. Aware of the need to expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR), Russia has long sought new cooperation formats with these countries. A determination to enhance bilateral relations has resulted in Russia’s involvement in a number of regional structures, including APEC, the Eastern Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum, and others.

       What are the priorities for Russia in its multilateral and bilateral cooperation with these regional countries? What strategy will Russia choose to further develop the integration processes within the APR? What roadmap will best promote Russia’s regional interests? What can Russia contribute to regional security considering the APR’s potential for conflict? To what extent do Russia’s interests overlap with the interests of its major regional partners? These and other issues were explored by Russian experts during the roundtable discussion, Russia in the Asia Pacific: Geopolitical Interests.

       According to Alexei Fenenko, Chief Research Fellow, Institute of International Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, “Russia’s current policy in Asia-Pacific, including Vladimir Putin’s visits to Vietnam and South Korea, is all about responding to a significant deterioration in Russia’s regional standing in 2011-2012.”

       Building on an analysis of Russia’s initiatives in the APR over the last two decades, the expert identified three turning points. The first occurred in 1992 when Boris Yeltsin’s administration opted for building a strategic partnership with China, which paved the way for the major Sino-Russian treaty, under which the two countries undertook to hold joint consultations on all controversial international issues, devise a common foreign strategy and support each other during territorial conflicts. The US called this treaty an “anti-hegemony pact,” and considers the commitments a basis for a close, if not allied, relationship.

       The second turning point, in Fenenko’s opinion, started in late 2002-early 2003, when Russia realized that a strategic partnership with China would not be enough. During the decade that followed the country sought to find alternative regional partners by turning to Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN. Unfortunately, these efforts didn’t pan out. Russia’s hopes for establishing a privileged dialogue with ASEAN countries didn’t come true. Finally, in 2009 then-President Dmitry Medvedev said that the future of Russia’s foreign policy lies with Asia, and that Asia, the APR is the region of the future, that major projects should be implemented there, which could be viewed as the third turning point.

       Alexei Fenenko went on to say that in the run-up to the APEC leaders meeting in Vladivostok, it became increasingly apparent that most APR countries regard Russia as no more than China’s ally, as a country supplying its resources for modernizing China’s defense industry and space program. Russia’s APR policy was further hindered by the China containment policy proclaimed by Barack Obama’s administration in 2010, under which new security perimeters were established, the ANZUS Security Treaty was restored, the US began actively supporting Japan in the latter’s territorial disputes with China, and it reached out to the countries of the Indochina peninsula. “We are mindful that during the dialogue between Russia and Vietnam in the summer of 2012, Leon Panetta, the U.S. Secretary of Defense at that time, visited Hanoi with an offer to expand the military partnership between the two countries,” the expert pointed out. The U.S. is thus seeking to draw Vietnam into its China containment system.

       There is another question. Could Russia’s attempts to establish closer ties with countries of Southeast Asia or Indochina become an issue in its relationship with China, and could it be viewed by China as a violation of the Sino-Russian Treaty of 2001?

       Fenenko said that Obama’s initiative to set up a trans-pacific partnership encompassing not only South Pacific nations but also Japan and South Korea has made the situation for Russia even worse, given that Russia has not been able to enter into a free trade agreement with a single APR government so far.

       According to the expert, Russia’s APR policy is currently about probing the situation in the region. Putin’s visits to Vietnam and South Korea will focus on certain infrastructure projects, certain easing of tensions in bilateral relations and by no means taking any steps that could undermine the major bilateral treaty with China.

       Other experts on the region also participated in the roundtable discussion, including Alexander Vorontsov, Head of the Korea and Mongolia Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Oksana Novakova, Head of the Center on Current Issues of Southeast Asia and the APR at the MSU Institute of Asian and African Studies, Andrei Davydov, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences and Alexei Maslov, Head of Oriental Studies Department at the National Research University - Higher School of Economics. They shared their perspectives on Russia’s policy in the Asia-Pacific Region and its prospects, and answered many questions.

       Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.