The leader of Reform Nigel Farage. (Image: Getty)
Reform would win 220 seats if a general election was held today, according to a new projection that shows Nigel Farage’s party leading the pack.
The data, based on a YouGov survey carried out on February 2-3, suggests Reform has surged ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.
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And a striking map, shared by Stats for Lefties on X, paints a vivid picture of Reform’s dominance across large parts of the country.
It shows the party making sweeping gains, particularly in the Midlands and the North, where strongholds of both Labour and the Conservatives appear to be crumbling.
The map shows Labour projected to win 160 seats - a huge drop of 251 compared to previous results. The Conservatives are expected to secure just 105 seats, while the Liberal Democrats are on track for 79.
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READ MORE: Reform tops major national poll for first time in huge blow to Keir Starmer
?????? BREAKING: Reform lead with **YouGov**
?????? REF 25% (+2)
?????? LAB 24% (-3)
?????? CON 21% (-1)
?????? LD 14% (-)
?????? GRN 9% (-)
Via @YouGov, 2-3 Feb (+/- vs 26-27 Jan) pic.twitter.com/3YLX09jhJv
— Stats for Lefties ????????????？？？？ (@LeftieStats) February 3, 2025
According to the latest Westminster voting intention figures, Reform sits at 25%, up two points from the previous week.
Labour follows closely with 24%, down three points, while the Conservatives have slipped to 21%, down one point. The Liberal Democrats are holding steady at 14%, with the Greens at 9%.
Reacting to the poll, Farage said on X: "Breaking news. Reform UK are now leading with YouGov for the first time. Britain wants Reform."
This marks the first time Reform has topped a YouGov national poll.
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Our latest voting intention poll (2-3 Feb) has Reform UK in front for the first time, although the 1pt lead is within the margin of error.
Ref: 25% (+2 from 26-27 Jan)
Lab: 24% (-3)
Con: 21% (-1)
Lib Dem: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=) pic.twitter.com/eerJuTozLI
— YouGov (@YouGov) February 3, 2025
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The survey of 2,223 British adults also found that Reform is pulling in nearly one in four voters who backed the Conservatives at the last election.
Meanwhile, Labour is struggling to hold onto its support, with only 60% of its 2019 voters saying they would vote for the party again.
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Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, told The Times: "We’ve had Labour and Reform extremely close over all our polls so far this year, and this survey shows a narrow Reform lead.
"While it remains within the margins of error, it reinforces the fact that Reform is roughly equal in support with Labour, with Conservatives slipping back again."