Where India Turned Against Modi
By Agnes Chang, Mujib Mashal and Pablo Robles
June 7, 2024
Kozhikode Bhubaneshwar Jamshedpur Vishakhapatnam Amritsar Varanasi Asansol Bhilai Bhopal Madurai Coimbatore Delhi Hyderabad Pune Nagpur Jaipur Kanpur Patna Chennai Ahmedabad Surat New Delhi Bangalore Mumbai Kolkata But he gained in poorer communities he targeted with welfare programs and Hindu-first policies. Modi’s support plummeted in populous northern strongholds.
+
–
+
Election data unavailable.
Height shows change in vote share
for Modi’s coalition since 2019
Width shows total
number of votes cast
Height shows change in vote share
for Modi’s coalition since 2019
Width shows total
number of votes cast
Narendra Modi set a lofty goal for an election he hoped would send him to a legacy-defining third term as prime minister: winning a majority so staggering that his party would cement itself as the only plausible option to lead India for years to come.
To do that, his Bharatiya Janata Party, or B.J.P., aimed to expand on its deep support across the so-called cow belt in India’s populous north, while also making significant inroads in the country’s south, which has been more resistant to the party’s Hindu-nationalist agenda.
But little went to plan for Mr. Modi when the election results arrived on Tuesday. His party did not just fall well short of its goal of winning more than 400 of the 543 parliamentary seats. It took such a steep dive — losing more than 60 seats — that it no longer had a majority in Parliament.
Seats won by
B.J.P. and allies
Seats won by
Congress and allies
352
352
335
335
300
300
293
293
Majority
303
259
259
262
262
259
282
259
234
234
221
244
221
240
189
185
189
206
185
165
159
165
159
182
182
143
137
143
137
161
125
145
125
141
140
138
121
91
91
116
114
99
59
59
52
44
1991
2024
1991
2024
Seats won by B.J.P. and allies
Seats won by Congress and allies
352
335
Seats needed
for majority
300
293
303
262
259
259
282
234
221
244
240
189
185
206
165
159
182
182
143
137
125
161
145
141
140
138
91
121
116
114
99
59
52
44
1991
2024
1991
2024
Seats won by
B.J.P. and allies
Seats won by
Congress and allies
352
352
335
335
300
300
293
293
Majority
303
259
259
262
262
259
282
259
234
234
221
244
221
240
189
185
189
206
185
165
159
165
159
182
182
143
137
143
137
161
125
145
125
141
140
138
121
91
91
116
114
99
59
59
52
44
1991
2024
1991
2024
To stay in office, the powerful Mr. Modi is now forced to do something that does not come naturally to him: work with others, in a political coalition. That alliance, known as the National Democratic Alliance, or N.D.A., will face a reinvigorated political opposition, led by the Congress party, that significantly improved its performance since the previous election, in 2019.
Modi’s N.D.A. alliance lost swaths of territory in this election
Seats N.D.A. lost
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Rajasthan
Kolkata
ODISHA
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
Andaman
Islands
KERALA
Seats N.D.A. lost
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Kolkata
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
Andaman
Islands
KERALA
Seats N.D.A. lost
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Kolkata
Maharashtra
Mumbai
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
KERALA
The B.J.P.’s losses were sprinkled around the country, from Maharashtra in the west to West Bengal in the east. But Mr. Modi’s biggest setback came where it was least expected: the northern belt where his party was well entrenched and its Hindu-nationalist ideology had strong backing.
It appeared that some of Mr. Modi’s tactics had backfired in this region, perhaps because his party’s candidates there were seen as incumbents without much to offer after a decade in power. Those losses were offset in part however by gains in stretches of the south, where the B.J.P. — as a new entrant that has had little footprint there in the past — found better reception to its messages.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, with a population of 240 million, the B.J.P. won just 33 seats, down from 62 in the previous election. It was in this Northern state that Mr. Modi in January inaugurated the lavish Ram temple, seen as one of his biggest offerings to his Hindu support base. But the B.J.P.’s chest-thumping over its Hindu-first policies turned off many lower-caste voters more concerned with issues like unemployment, inflation and social justice.
Uttar Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
2019
2024
Ghaziabad
Ghaziabad
Lucknow
Lucknow
Ayodhya
Ayodhya
Kanpur
Kanpur
Varanasi
Varanasi
Opposition
N.D.A.
Other
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
+4
+8
+12
+16
+4
+8
+12
+16
+4
+8
+12
+16
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
N.D.A.
Opposition
Other
+8
+16
Ghaziabad
Lucknow
Ayodhya
Kanpur
Varanasi
2019
Uttar Pradesh
Ghaziabad
Lucknow
Ayodhya
Kanpur
Varanasi
2024
Uttar Pradesh
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
N.D.A.
Opposition
Other
+8
+16
Ghaziabad
Lucknow
Ayodhya
Kanpur
Varanasi
2019
Uttar Pradesh
Ghaziabad
Lucknow
Ayodhya
Kanpur
Varanasi
2024
Uttar Pradesh
One of the biggest surprises was in the city of Ayodhya, the site of the Ram temple. The B.J.P. lost the seat in the city and other seats in its neighboring districts.
In the important state of Maharashtra, home to India’s business and entertainment capital, Mumbai, the B.J.P. won only nine seats, down from 23 in the last election. The party’s coalition partners suffered even worse losses.
maharashtra
maharashtra
2019
2024
Nagpur
Nagpur
Mumbai
Mumbai
Pune
Pune
Opposition
N.D.A.
Other
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
+4
+8
+12
+16
+4
+8
+12
+16
+4
+8
+12
+16
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
N.D.A.
Opposition
Other
+8
+16
+8
+16
+8
+16
Nagpur
Mumbai
Pune
2019
maharashtra
Nagpur
Mumbai
Pune
2024
maharashtra
Margin of victory, in pct. pts.
N.D.A.
Opposition
Other
+8
+16
Nagpur
Mumbai
Pune
2019
maharashtra
Nagpur
Mumbai
Pune
2024
maharashtra
The vote was seen as a verdict on the B.J.P.’s heavy-handed ways of reshaping the state’s political map. The B.J.P. had used pressure by government agencies and enticements of cash and power to split both of the state’s two largest parties. A faction within each of the two split parties then aligned with the B.J.P. The move backfired, however: In what was viewed as a sympathy vote, the original factions from the two parties outdid the B.J.P. allies by large margins.
The B.J.P. did have some good news: It continued to expand its support in the south, where it has struggled to establish a lasting foothold. It won a seat for the first time in the left-dominated state of Kerala and several seats in the state of Telangana.
N.D.A. alliance gained territory in the east and south
Seats N.D.A. gained
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Rajasthan
Kolkata
ODISHA
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
Andaman
Islands
KERALA
Seats N.D.A. gained
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Kolkata
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
Andaman
Islands
KERALA
Seats N.D.A. gained
New Delhi
Uttar
Pradesh
Kolkata
Maharashtra
Mumbai
ANDHRA
PRADESH
Bangalore
KERALA
The party’s most impressive gains came in the state of Odisha in the east. That state is part of the “tribal belt,” which weaves across central India and is the only part of the country where the B.J.P. has unified support. Its relatively poor communities have been skillfully targeted by the B.J.P.’s Hindu-first politics and welfare benefits.
But the party’s progress in eastern and southern India was far from enough to make up for its losses in the north. Now, with Mr. Modi deprived of the landslide victory he had sought, the country will see how he responds. Some of the strains in India’s democracy might be mended as Mr. Modi is forced to consult with coalition partners who could restrain his more authoritarian tendencies. Or he could crack down more fiercely than ever, worried about losing more ground to a revived opposition.
Note: Dotted lines show disputed borders. Jammu and Kashmir and Assam have redrawn the borders of their parliamentary constituencies since the last general election. Because these changes make it difficult to compare votes in newly drawn constituencies with votes in constituencies used in 2019, we are excluding them from the analysis.
Sources: Election Commission of India; The Lokniti Programme for Comparative Democracy, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies
Additional work by Urvashi Uberoy and Matthew Bloch.