LONDON — Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party lost a seat the party has safely held for almost 200 years on Friday, in a fresh blow to the British leader that renewed questions about his leadership.
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The Liberal Democrats won North Shropshire in central England after the seat became vacant following a sleaze scandal that engulfed Johnson’s Conservative Party. The pro-Brexit district had sent a Conservative politician to Parliament since its formation in 1832.
The loss is certain to boost Johnson’s critics in the Conservative Party, which in particular is known for deposing leaders it sees as not winning elections.
“The people of North Shropshire have spoken on behalf of the British people. They have said loudly and clearly: ‘Boris Johnson, the party is over,’” Helen Morgan, the newly-elected member of Parliament said in her victory speech.
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The shock result — the centrist Liberal Democrats not only overturned a Conservative majority of 23,000, but won by nearly 6,000 votes — comes on the same week that Johnson suffered a record rebellion by his party over the introduction covid-19 measures.
Boris Johnson sees record rebellion from his own Conservative Party on covid policies
It’s just one seat of 650 in a Parliament that the Conservatives handily dominate, but it has received national attention as a test for the embattled prime minister who has endured weeks of bad headlines.
Indeed, the seat only became vacant after the Conservative lawmaker Owen Paterson, an ally of Johnson’s, stepped down after he broke lobbying rules. Johnson conceded that he “crashed the car” in his handling of the case.
Voters were “fed up,” Oliver Dowden, the Conservative Party chairman told Sky News. “They gave us a kicking.”
Analysts said that the North Shropshire vote concentrated minds on Johnson’s ability — or not — to win elections. “His whole premiership is based on, ‘he’s good at winning elections,’” said Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester. “If it becomes a settled view that far from being an electoral Gandalf he is an electoral Voldemort, he’s not long for Number 10.”
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Paula Surridge, a senior lecturer at the University of Bristol, said there were some in the Conservative Party who were “never fans” of Johnson’s but willing to “put up with him” because he was an electoral asset, not a liability. He was Mr. Landslide with cross-party appeal. In December 2019, Johnson led the Conservatives to a whopping 80-seat majority, winning seats in traditional Labour heartlands in the north of England. Johnson also served two terms as mayor of London, a Labour-leaning city.
But the latest election shows the “the shine was coming off with voters” and “doubts were creeping in with the Conservative Party,” Surridge said.
The latter may be the most worrisome for Johnson.
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Unlike the Labour Party, the main opposition party that will let unpopular leaders limp on, the Conservative Party is known to be quicker than most at toppling leaders perceived as unable to bring in the voters. Most famously, in 1990 Margaret Thatcher was booted out by her own party with a sudden ruthlessness that surprised everyone.
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Johnson could face a leadership challenge if 54 lawmakers from his own party submit letters of no confidence, triggering an internal party vote on his removal.
But Johnson is no stranger to controversy and has bounced back, repeatedly, from scandals and setbacks. And while commentators are discussing letters of no confidence, no one has publicly declared they’ve submitted one.
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Daniel Wincott, a politics expert at Cardiff University, said that Johnson has long had a reputation as a “Teflon politician on whom things seem to slide.” But as of late, less has been sliding.
Johnson is battling fires on many fronts: a surging omicron variant, rebellious lawmakers, tanking approval ratings.
Arguably most damning, said Wincott, is the drip, drip, drip of allegations about government staff flouting rules and attending Christmas parties last year at a time when such gatherings were banned. The “sense of hypocrisy does start to stick,” said Wincott.
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Johnson denied that any rules were broken and ordered an internal inquiry by the cabinet secretary, Simon Case.
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Earlier this week, Johnson’s premiership was rocked when nearly 100 of his own Conservative lawmakers rebelled to vote against new covid-19 measures. While the measures ultimately passed, with the help of opposition politicians, it was a blow to Johnson’s authority. Shortly after the vote, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the influential 1922 committee of backbench Conservative MPs, warned on television that a leadership challenge “has got to be on the cards.”
“He’s in trouble,” said Ben Page, global head of Ipsos MORI, a pollster. “He’s made a series of self-inflicted wounds and if he continues on the same track then all bets are off.”
But he added that things were “not yet terminal” and “assuming he can get his act together, he can recover.” The next general election is due in 2024 and Liberal Democrats have a history of doing well in special elections but not nationwide ones.
While the Labour Party is currently polling slightly ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in years, they would still lose if an election was held today because of boundary changes and demographics.
Surridge, the lecturer, said that she didn’t think Johnson was in “immediate trouble” but said that the tide had turned against him. “The stuff from the Number 10 parties and Christmas quizzes stick in the public mind and his personal ratings I don’t think will recover. The things coming out are molding together in people’s minds with anger and unresolved grief and upset” from the pandemic last year when people weren’t able to have parties or see their own families.
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The “events of the last few weeks have damaged him enough that it’s sort of the beginning of the end,” she said. “I don’t think the end will be soon, but I think it will be difficult to recover from completely.”
Laura Kuenssberg, BBC’s political editor, said there are definitely people in the party looking into a summer challenge of Johnson’s leadership.
“Things are febrile, and we shouldn’t predict things with any certainty — but there’s no doubt this is a really dangerous moment for the prime minister,” she said.
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